Thursday, May 24, 2007

Place Your Bets 2

How many hundred points will the DJIA fall tomorrow? I'm guessing two but the little voice wants me to say three. Do your best "Billy Ray Valentine" and show the pack who be de alpha dawg.

My Billy Ray: "It's a long weekend see? And nobody wants to walk away for three whole days when the Asia markets are so nervous. 'Sides sell in May and go away? Nobody gonn lose a bonus pocketing what they got already but sure as hell they gonna lose their ass if they be bangin they secretary in the Hamptons while China melts down. Sell them mo fos. If they still good next Tuesday but 'em back and pocke two comissions. Yeah, that's what Billy Ray say."
Update:

47 comments:

The Dude said...

FIRST

El Gabo Gringo said...

I dont' get the billy ray thing.

MURST!

Jeffrey said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Jeffrey said...

"Soy! Soy soy soy!"

Rob Dawg said...

Now do you get it?

Rob Dawg said...

Oh, you removed the post. I guess you do. OJ! OJ! FCOJ!

The Dude said...

BR Valentine....Eddie Murphy in the movie Trading Places.

The Chinese markets will be fine. They will by all stocks with an "8" in it and sell all "4"'s...pure logic and fundamentals.

BelowTheCrowd said...

So far, Japan and HK are down, China up. But Japan and HK claim to be down following OUR bad day, so are they leaders or followers? Who knows?

Tomorrow will be a thin day which will mean nothing in any case. That said, my range is up 50 to down 150. No, I don't make a single bet. Ever. Trading (like major leage batting) is a game of percentages. You succeed by making the trades that cover the most likely range of possibilities, not a single scenario.

(And I'm 80% cash right now anyway. Looking to buy more gold and silver as soon as Casey announces he's sold his GSPG position.)

-btc

Casey Fannnnn said...

Well, I'm not sure what's going on now. Casey has been arrested and the show's over? The picture above has special significance? Okay, I'll guess:

Eddie Murphy is a "hummel sectional", who likes chix with dix. Jamie Lee Curtis fills that role, owing to her curious genetic makeup (she's an xxy intersexual), except she's got no dix! So where does that leave Dan Aykroyd? He has a dix. The picture is complete. It's a simple game, but Casey has lost, because he has the entire greased Nigel Swobby rammed up and curved around his tranverse colon and it prevents him from concentrating. Long live Casey's Las Vegas show with Ann Margret! He sings "The Men In My Little Girl's Life". It's meant to evoke the pimpin of Galina, she who has no name or money.

Watch out for the wheat grass slalom! It's punishing. Smells like you just mowed the lawn, then shit in it.

TK said...

Fannnnnnn: Holy shite. I'm sensing...bitterness. Go take it out in Caseypedia. I enjoy a good pissed up bad write only to wake up in the morning and find it sparkling and hilarious. Then I pat myself on the back. As far as the markets go, every knucklehead trader I know is gonna be on the Jitney by 1 tomorrow afternoon. Wall Street is a ghost town baby. Happy official beginning of having Manhattan to myself!

TK said...

BTW on Casey's new Troll...er POLL, I voted for him to do nothing, as I know that is what he'll do.


Man I long for the days when he couldn't do a thing right. Actually they're coming back. His site sucks donkey balls. I just hate dislike that money goes into his pocket as a result and all his creditors are offering him get out of jail free cards.

ratlab said...

DOW was down, EMC was up. Crappy news for Network Appliance means unrealized profits for me in EMC.

BelowTheCrowd said...

SPX futes currently up $2.70
NAS futes currently up $3
DIA futes currently up $25

Doesn't really mean much. Easy to juice the futures after-hours, and whether or not you believe there is actual manipulation or intervention by central banks, the fact is that futures rarely have an impact past the first five minutes, but do give Maria tons of crap to pontificate about in her fake accent for a couple of hours.

-btc

ratlab said...

@btc

Agreed. Now that earnings season had ended, it's all about the news. Good news is bad, bad news is good. It's like to financial world revolves around speculating on whether the Fed will drop rates based on relatively miniscule news blurbs.

Huck Finn said...

@ ratlab

Fed is more likely to raise rates than drop them, particularly after yesterday's news about home sales. Bill Gross missed on his projection big time - his first misstep in umpteen years.

I love how people are concerned about the DJIA's "point drops" in a day. I think percentages are a better indicator. That and DJIA, an index of 30 names, is too narrow a focus group to gauge that state of the state.

Today: DJIA will either be up .5% or down .5% - and activity will be light. Everyone is heading out to the cabin or their mistresses for a long weekend of drinking and sinking.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

Wall Street is a ghost town baby. Happy official beginning of having Manhattan to myself!
________________________

I have three company's in start up, and in my 'loozer w2' (tm) job I am a stock jockey. Today we are closing at noon.
I am on the record here today, rates another hold or down, imo.
More dollars in circulation, lighter debt service for the US Fed. Gubermint.
It is all in the NAU Plan, I reckon, but you should ask Dubya.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

PS. The Fed Bank does not care about the housing/credit bubble, as per speeches I have heard from the PTB.

Dan said...

Did I miss something? Did you guys "abuse" the chat feature or did it never work in the first place? I checked yesterday, it was there, I checked today, it's gone.

Another thing...Casey's new Premium ad is for some stupid investing book that says it's worth $594,175. Who wants to bet that Casey has ordered a copy for $594,174 with his corporate credit? He's probably working up a post right now claiming another successful win-win negotiation because he saved one dollar off of the value of the book.

Huck Finn said...

@ flyingmonkeywarrior

PS. The Fed Bank does not care about the housing/credit bubble, as per speeches I have heard from the PTB.

I agree with you about this - the mortgage "crisis"/housing bubble isn't a major concern right now. If it were, they'd lower rates, which would help the housing sector.

Bernanke has stated his primary concern is inflation* - he wants to keep the inflation rate at, or near, current levels. If it begins to creep up, they'll raise rates to pull money out off the street, so I'll bet $1 you're wrong about them dropping rates.

The most likely scenario is they'll hold flat again at the next meeting.

* the stated inflation rate is such bunk - it uses CPI, which excludes housing and oil/energy. If they look at the real inflation rate, my guess is they'd probably not stand pat on interest rates.

Ouch. This is too much thinking for on a pre-holiday Friday.

Dumbfounded said...

My Prediction:

The Dow will be up or down or possibly stay the same.

Oh, and I am ALWAYS right!

*takes bow*

Mort said...

Dow up 50 in early trading.

Anonymous said...

Dow will close higher today. What are you thinking??

Rob Dawg said...

I was thinking I could get more reasoned comments with an extreme possibility that was contrary to momentum and sentiment.

Is tech going to ever participate?

Huck Finn said...

Is tech going to ever participate?

I work in finance as an investment analyst. People love technology and always look and hope for strong returns in the tech sectors. The 90s were awesome; when the tech bubble burst, it really hurt.

As the old saying goes, however, time heals all wounds. Since equities have done so well over the last few years, people are starting to forget the pain of '00 (and '02). There are a lot of people waiting for that big tech rally.

It may happen at some point, but I personally don't think tech is a long-term winner. There may be phenomenal gains for companies like Google and Apple, but the thing about tech: people always want more product/features at a lower cost.

For every Apple and Google of the tech world, there are thousands of dot.com companies that didn't make it.

People hate my anti-tech bias. And, really, I guess I can't blame them. I just love dividends and strong cash flows.

Huck Finn said...

I forgot a piece for the above comment.

There may be phenomenal gains for companies like Google and Apple, but the thing about tech: people always want more product/features at a lower cost.

More product and more features is an expense that cuts into profits eventually. The more you offer and the less you charge for it, the higher your sales numbers. Trouble is, it cuts into profits.

Apple is enjoying its (near-)monopolistic state of iPod, but they're going to have to keep rolling out new products that people will upgrade to (iPhone) or they will have to cut costs to attract new buyers.

What happens if/when their new products no longer look like they're worth throwing another $500 toward? How often will people get rid of their new-last-year iPods for the new-this-year-but-spendy versions?

Rob Dawg said...

I'm not sure if it is anti-tech bias you are expressing. I remember before the tech bubble I think it was Bed Stein explaining that "tech investing" was 5 spectacular successes, 10 good performers and 85 complete failures. The returns looked en masse to be market average or slightly better. The secret was being able to weed out even a few of the failures more than any magical picking of the rare winner.

I agree that tech is going to have follow with dividends and not some cheat inside information one time payouts either.

Rob Dawg said...

Huck, can I use your comments as a top level post to discuss Apple this weekend?

Huck Finn said...

Feel free, Rob. I'm sure that I'm in the minority with my opinion, but I'm used it by now.

It's kind of nice to read posts other than the tired Casey saga. It was fun when he was actually dealing with foreclosure and "how am I going to pay my bills?" issues, but man did it turn into a blahg in recent weeks.

This looks like a nice alternative.

I'm biased, of course.

Huck said...

but man did it turn into a blahg in recent weeks.

Just to clear things up, it's Casey's site that has turned into a blahg in recent weeks. Yours is still a fun one to start my day with.

Sprezzatura said...

I think your analysis of Apple is incomplete, huck, but I'll save the long version of why for the weekend.

The Real Wagga™ said...

Hey! I got the picture. It's "low-hanging fruit"

Huck Finn said...

I'm sure it is incomplete - they have strong brand loyalty, their product line is innovative, they have strong cash flows, etc...

So Apple is probably a bad example in the near term, but it's still part of the technology sector...which makes me nervous.

People may make be making money hand over fist on Apple right now, but I'm not one of them.

I'm a contrarian - and am always very early on my technology bets.

Anonymous said...

How many hundred points will the DJIA fall tomorrow?

None oh prescient one. Got any more great tips for us Rob Rong?

Peripheral Visionary said...

Yikes, 4.2MM inventory in homes--is that a new record? 8.4 months' supply, and that's the *national* average, what's the local supply in the bubble markets looking like? Months' supply is up 13.5% m-o-m, up 37.7% y-o-y! Home builder price cuts are absolutely killing the secondary market . . .

Prices down 2% in the West y-o-y, and again that's the *average*, what are prices doing in LV, SD, Phoenix?

Oh well, stock market higher on bad news--itsallgood(tm)!

Lost Cause said...

Bernanke has stated his primary concern is inflation

As the new kid on the block, and entering the room after a long and crazy party, is there really any doubt that he will cause a lot of pain, cleaning it up?

Rates are going up, up , up...and stocks are going down! Well, maybe not today, but eventually.

Lost Cause said...

Bernanke has stated his primary concern is inflation

As the new kid on the block, and entering the room after a long and crazy party, is there really any doubt that he will cause a lot of pain, cleaning it up?

Rates are going up, up , up...and stocks are going down! Well, maybe not today, but eventually.

Rob Dawg said...

PV,
Drilling down deeper into yesterday's surprising uptick in new home sales we find that the sales weren't sales but a 35% jump in pre-orders for homes not yet started. Yes, thay are booked as "sales" in the morh they are contracted and no, if they fall out they will not show up in inventory nor will they subtract from sales in the month of redaction.

Huck said...

As the new kid on the block, and entering the room after a long and crazy party, is there really any doubt that he will cause a lot of pain, cleaning it up?

I'm getting such a kick out of Greenspan's comments - it seems he's hellbent to derail Bernanke's efforts.

After years of mumbling and offering cryptic comments as the Fed chairman, our pal Al is shouting from the rooftops now.

"33% chance of recession by year-end. Did you hear me? ONE-IN-THREE CHANCE!! Woo hoooo!!!"

He's probably right, but I'll bet Ben is in contact with Fox Sports as I type about a possible Celebrity Boxing Match...to the death.

Peripheral Visionary said...

Rob: I think the untold story in housing these days is the "bridge loan" situation--people who have bought a house (often a newly built one) but who have yet to sell the old house. There are a LOT of people in this situation; they've been keeping the homebuilding numbers up, but they're a big part of the massive overhang in unsold used homes. When the finances for people "between homes" begin to fall apart (and many of them are neither subprime nor alt-A), things are going to get (even more) nasty.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

Huck Finn
I agree with you regarding Tech and I agree with ITULIP, the next bubble and emerging market is anything 'green' that helps us reduce oil consumption. Alternative Constuction to help with hurricans sustainable buildings and alternative power such as Geo thermal and Solar. Ethonal ain't going no where, imo, and again the dollar has to drop to lighten Fed Gov debt service not to help housing.
Fed Bank will hold or reduce rates over the long term.
Just my 2 cents.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

The big worry is the CHINA Stock market bubble combined with a three day weekend, I reckon.
nuff said.

Huck Finn said...

I love Fridays before a holiday. Sssslllllooooowwww days - a bit of a breather from normally hectic days.

@ FMW

I totally agree with you regarding the next bubble opportunity landing in the "green" arena. Seems every company is pointing out their environmentally friendly practices, from BP Amoco (FAIL!) to Starbucks.

I also agree with you that ethanol ain't going anywhere - it's expensive to produce, uses a lot of fossil fuels to create and increases demand on a shrinking water supply. At least companies are trying to find alternative fuel sources, though.

Interesting point about a possible reduction in rates to alleviate debt load - it's one I hadn't considered. I still think rates will be flat to close the year, but your suggestion adds a new wrinkle to the possibility of a move - and not necessarily up.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

and not necessarily up.
--------
Yep and Thank you, Huck Finn.
I am in the Stock Market Industry and it was so slow we closed at noon e.s.t. today. Didn't make me mad.
BP is heavy into solar and they are helping my company (BP engineers, solar panels etc.) which is my private deal, to power clean (injectable clean) water systems with solar modules custom built for schools in the third world.
Ted Turner just dumped big dollars into solar, which you probably know.
Sexy emerging market, Green Tech.
Well, ttfn. Time to play.

Huck said...

I am clearly an idiot.

Why did I suggest BP Amoco wasn't hitting the environmentally friendly mark? There's no way I can convince you (or anyone) that I meant Exxon Mobil, but it's worth a shot.

BP Amoco is one of a handful of oil/energy companies to land in the portfolios of many socially responsive mutual funds.

Any credibility I had has been shattered -- and that's assuming I had any credibility to begin with.

Cutting out early sounds like a good idea. It's time to make it so.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

@Huck F,
LOL, no worries, you are always credible on the WWW, especially at EN!
Have a Memorable Memorial Weekend.
LOL again.
TTFN

BelowTheCrowd said...

We Are HERE

The above link is to the most notable slide from a 64 slide deck in which Bill Ackman of Pershing Square Capital detailed why he is short the mortgage insurers.

If anybody wants the full presentation, btc at [my domain name].

Huck said...

FWTW: I suggested the Dow would go up or down today by .5%.

It closed +.49%.

Not such a bad guess.

I know, I know. I hedged by saying it could go down by as much - but that's good planning.

If you bet $10 on red, a good strategy is to put some money down on black as a hedge.

You won't get rich this way, but you sure won't go broke.

Cheers!