Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
Tuesday, May 29, 2007
CHASE Me Down
Time now for my occasional reiteration of my CHASE concept:
The best option is to pay for a separate air network. $45.3 billion can pay
for lots of "pocket airports" for the exclusive use of the "California High
Speed Airtrain System." [CHASE] We start by funding research and
constructing of a fleet of STOL "whisperfans" with a low top speed (320-350
mph) and short range (<1800km) and then pay for their operations in a
fashion unique to public transit; full cost farebox recovery ticket pricing.
Surprisingly those prices would be less than the projected costs of the
CA-HSR fares despite the service being better.
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Technology,
transportation
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30 comments:
First! My first first, I'm so proud. Shniff.
murst - and since i'm moving to brooklyn, MOIST!
FIRST
What are these "whisperfans" of which you speak?
Do you mean VTOL? (the Moller.com car?) The market is already starting to provide these air-taxis now why let Gubmint get in the way?
These will be yet another fuel innefficient commute for the ex-exurbanite. While it will alleviate the lane mile usage for the exuranite it will raise eyebrows when it comes to CMAQ funding in a region as polluted as yours Robert.
I always thought rigid airships would be ideal for a regional transit network.
What are these "whisperfans" of which you speak?
Excellent question. For the last ohhhh hundred years or so of aviation we've been concerned with essentially three things; maximum efficiency and power to weight and top speed. This has resulted in fast, fuel efficient large vehicles with long ranges. Now we are finally in a position to make engineering tradeoffs that garner different results. Composites, electronics, hydraulics, fasteners, materials and computing power are in place to pick and choose vehicle characteristics.
If we design CHASE craft to be lightweight, slower, lighter wing loading and more single purpose we can make a new generation of commuter and travel craft that take off in a couple thousand feet with minimal noise. That is an awesome synergy. Not only are they less expensive but CHASEports are orders of magnitude easier to site and cost. That becomes its own synergy as even corporate HQs then become potential terminii.
Exageration follows; What happens when the MetLife blimp flies over? Shaking fists and FAA complaints? No, smiles and waves. It won't be that nice but it won't be an "airport" NIMBY Deathmatch fight either. Split the difference and tell me some municipalities won't be fighting each other to be the regional CHASEport.
JBJBJ, to answer your question; a whisperfan is an engineering solution to the political and associated land use problems of locating pocket aviation facilites.
Interesting proposal, but the long-term prospects for air travel are not bright. The only reason air transporation is affordable right now is that airlines are allowed to repeatedly declare bankruptcy or pick only the most profitable routes (the Southwest model.) In all likelihood, most airlines are going the Southwest route long-term, which means that local airports (which have not been profitable for a long time--it takes more than a couple dozen people to recoup the cost of the pilot, let alone the fuel and the plane rental) are going the way of the local train station (ah, rich irony.)
And then there's the extraordinarily high exposure to fuel costs. I wonder how much demand there will be after fuel costs from $100/barrel oil are added to the ticket, because we're getting there at some point.
And I can't help but see "pocket airports" as a subsidy for the exurbs paid for with city-dweller tax dollars, but I'll leave that one alone ;) .
Ahh, airships--now we're talking. I'd go for that any day. Who cares if they're not that much faster than road transportation, when you've got that kind of a view.
If the FAA had been present at Kitty Hawk on December 17, 1903 - we'd still be walking...
Do you mean VTOL? (the Moller.com car?)
Gawd no! Moller is a charlatan. "Fluidic amplifiers?" Gimme a break.
The market is already starting to provide these air-taxis now why let Gubmint get in the way?
Good question. Do those taxis run on taxi roads? See? It isn't about a vehicle but a system. I fully expect small volume private providers to infill under my CHASE system and even eventually rich private participants. We saw private railcars a century previous did we not?
These will be yet another fuel innefficient commute for the ex-exurbanite.
Au contraire. If anything CHASE is contrary to the Cotean Dystopic Inevitability. CHASE requires nodal concentrations and regional cooperation and more. Second CHASE is wickedly efficient. I don't think you understand the energy overhead of exisiting infrastructure modes.
While it will alleviate the lane mile usage for the exuranite it will raise eyebrows when it comes to CMAQ funding in a region as polluted as yours Robert.
Why? Long distance travel share is part of our AQMD airshed projections. I acknowledge that this is an interregional proposal but inasmuch as it significantly reduces intraregional VMT it will count. Disagee? Tell it to Metrolink who used that same point to such great effect. Think their fat ole diesel choo-choos are a fair comparison?
@ PV:
Ahh, airships--now we're talking. I'd go for that any day. Who cares if they're not that much faster than road transportation, when you've got that kind of a view.
The trouble with airships is that they're very vulnerable to heavy weather. An airship-based transportation system would be have to be limited to operating in calm weather only. Otherwise, consider the results of the US Navy's 1930s airship program and imagine what it would be like with a large passenger-carrying fleet.
Obligatory
Newest post from Snowflake:
May 29th, 2007 11:44 am
Real Estate Investor Bag of Tricks
From my pictures many of you have noticed my constant companion on my real estate investing adventures: my “manbag” (incorrectly identified by some as “murse”).
Real Estate Investor's Bag of Tricks [enlarge photo]
It’s time to show you what’s inside the Real Estate Investor’s Bag of Tricks. Here are the contents:
Victorinox bag made by the makers of Swiss Army Knife - just the right color and style for the real estate investor to wear it with casual clothes as well as semi-dressed up. It completely zips up to keep all the contents safe. Real estate investor can even run with it - to catch somebody or run away from somebody.
Wallet with Credit Cards and No Cash - a real estate investor does NOT carry cash in this matching genuine leather wallet. It’s not safe and if you don’t have it you won’t spend it on impulsive deals. Smart real estate investor maxes out all the credit cards into great investments in order to increase cash-on-cash return. Also when there is no credit available a stolen card can do no harm.
Hacky Sac - for when the real estate investor is bored, like a the foreclosure auction.
The Original ALTOIDS Peppermints - the only kind that the real estate investor will ever put in his/her mouth. These keep the investor’s social networking going smooth at real estate investor clubs. Nobody likes a real estate investor with bad breath. These are the only mints strong enough to even overcome the wheat grass aftertaste.
Natural Tear Drops - keeps the eyes hydrated when the real estate investor is blogging his sweet deals late into the night.
PDA Cellphone - no real estate investor can go without a smart communication device - a blend of a PDA and cellphone. Keeps all the contacts, todos, and appointments synced with Outlook and within easy reach. Many a sweet deals have been done on this phone. Wireless internet allows moderating comments and blogging remotely. This phone is specially designed to help real estate investor dodge pesky collector calls during occasional lender-ignore mode.
Win-Win Deal Pen - not just an ordinary pen, the real estate investor uses this pen to sign win-win contracts, iron-clad partnership agreements and $50,000 promissory notes. This Win-Win Deal Pen comes equipped with built-in clock and stylus tip for use with the touch-screen PDA. As with all vital equipment the real estate investor demands the very best.
Connections Notepad - even in this digital age a smart real estate investor understand the value of good-ol’ paper when it comes to quickly jotting down a sweet deal lead from a birddog or taking down vital contact info for an important connection while networking.
Digital Voice Recorder - real estate investor must record important conversations and negotiations for training purposes.
Minolta 2-Megapixel Digital Camera (not shown) - to take all the semi-staged and famous pictures.
Million Dollar Bill - for the real estate investor to stay focused.
Filed under photos, sweet media, other stuff
Au contraire. If anything CHASE is contrary to the Cotean Dystopic Inevitability. CHASE requires nodal concentrations and regional cooperation and more. Second CHASE is wickedly efficient. I don't think you understand the energy overhead of exisiting infrastructure modes....
So Robert it sounds like you are advocating some kind of eeeek! planning? Especially transportation planning. Someone get the digitalis!
As for CHASE is this the real world acronym or one of yours? I would like to see it in the literature before I comment on it any further because I find it hard to believe that moving that much weight can be more efficient than you in your SUV can be.
Metro
I weakened - new Casey post up - about the contents of his murse. Can you say "jump the shark"?
I think that the post is intended to be funny - I'd say "don't quit your day job", but he doesn't have one.
Casey does seem to have run out of things to say.
ack. hovercars have been the subject of many geek wet-dreams. see Jetsons and Back to the Future II.
Bob Dawg, what are your thoughts on hydrogen fuel cells? Maybe if these get cheap enough, then they could power the helicoptors?
Can we have a tour of the Serin closets as well? Or what is in the glove compartment of the sweeet jetta?
This tool is scraping the sides of the barrel - where is the $1,000 countdown this week?
Yeah, I'm also wondering why Friday's show isn't posted. Does anyone know where a full version can be found? Also, what happened to his "money clock." Seems to have disappeared.
And is it just me, or is the writing of the Murse post very different in style from his usual writing?
mbaldwin - check out caseypedia.com
So Robert it sounds like you are advocating some kind of eeeek! planning? Especially transportation planning. Someone get the digitalis!
Ahhh, the light dawns. Robert doesn't like current planning practices. Therefor Robert doesn't like planning. Nope, put down the pills and listen.
As for CHASE is this the real world acronym or one of yours?
Depends. It is my invention. Have you ever heard any of my acronyms other than this? The journey of a thousand steps? One man lighting a candle?
I would like to see it in the literature before I comment on it any further because I find it hard to believe that moving that much weight can be more efficient than you in your SUV can be.
The BTS and related ONH and all the FHWA and DOT annual reports are pretty clear.
You want to move "sh!t" cheap? In order:
Pipeline.
Rail.
Cargo ship.
Roads.
Plane.
What's the problem? Oh, that assumes the sh!t don't complain. People ain't sh!t. Once you go from cargo to passenger the criteria change.
No way he had enough of a sense of humor to write that murse post.
What is amazing is that he does actually have that many credit cards. I have two, plus one in my company's name that I rarely use. (It's only purpose is for international travel, because the issuer is one of the only ones that doesn't charge additional fees on foreign transactions.)
That said, I do think he's run out of things to say, and of course there's no money clock. He made this weeks' money last week, so he gets a week off. Don't you know that's how it works in Caseyland?
And I've posted my response to his request that I call in on Friday. No matter that I'll be in a meeting for at least part of that time, I doubt he'll meet my demands anyway: An Open Letter to Casey Serin
-btc
At 12:12 PM, Mbaldwin said...
"And is it just me, or is the writing of the Murse post very different in style from his usual writing?"
I thought so too - it certainly doesn't read like Casey's normal prose.
Perhaps he is hitting the down part of his bipolar cycle (after the peak on Friday), and he subbed out posting to someone else.
Perhaps his family's intervention is more throughgoing than one brother calling in on his podcast, and Snowflake is not happy...
Dawg - this sounds costly. I advocate Zeppelins!!
goodness, after the murse post it has to be clear to even the newest rubberneckers that snowflake has jumped the shark in a major way.
i advocate the return of dirgible travel - though the operators should spring for helium, not hydrogen.
Bemused,
Not costly at all. Think of the spinoffs and such. $45.3 billion and rising quickly is a lot of money.
That's half the entire US federal transportation budget for one year. Kalifornia would have a viable alternative transport network with dozens of ancillary applications. Eurpoe would have done this a decade previous were it not for their ties to rail solutions. Make no mistake, thet acted rationally in a local perspective but they've closed off better options going forward. Chosing rail for us is a case of chasing the early adopters. I say leapfrog and go 21st Century rather than optimized 19th Century.
Rob,
While flying cars / microairports are certainly a great futuristic idea, they present certain problems:
- Generating lift is much less efficient than overcoming vulcanized rubber's coefficient of friction.
- A majority of operator error will be fatal, as opposed to today's car/bus/train.
- A majority of mechanical failure will be fatal, as opposed to today's car/bus/train.
- Assuming .01 percent mechanical failure rate, twenty thousand people a year will die from, essentially, running out of gas.
Rob Dawg:
Uhhh, may I point out that your great state is blessed with a very long and large coastline?
If people moving at high speed be the plan, then the answer was provided by the Russians back in the 60's
Ekranoplan
(google it).
BTW, in the shipping business, they've been "talking to death" the idea of short-sea shipping to get 18-wheelers off the I-95 corridor.
Like everything else in shipping, they'll babble until the end of time and do nothing else until someone gives 'em a subsidy.
Regards;
Oh;
And btw;
Water transpo cheaper than rail AND pipeline.
You fudged your set by limiting water transpo to "cargo-ship"
Say hello to my little friend:
The Barge.
You load it, it sits there until a tug makes it up and pushes it somewhere.
Regards;
Rob
Have to disagree with you
Blimps and similiar aircraft are cute because they are seldom seen. Then again, people used to come out and wave as the first Model Ts were put on the street.
Those things are not that quiet even with those small fans. In the Boston area we have one for a major milk company with a modern blimp going up and down the coastline all summer long. After the 3rd or 4th pass above my sailboat in a day, I have had enough. I cannot image hundreds of them buzzing about like queen bees.
Then there is the weather. The FAA has trouble with 10,000 flights a day and they have had 60 years to get their act together. What is the uptime in foggy SF when there are a couple hundred of these things competing with commerical traffic. What you going to do in the winter in the North East?
Or when they CRASH. Do a google on Hood blimp and crash to read what happens when a 30 year expert rated on just about every kind of aircraft flown gets caught in a wind gust. Now think of the average taxi hack driving these things. You want them flying near your home or kid's school?
The days of cities being centers of commerce are going away. Nice idea for 17th century England/US as the factories got started and vast amounts of human power were needed. But that and middle mgt are soon to be relics of the past to our grandchildren.
The future will be distributed environments where most use the internet to connect from home to do their W-2 jobs. But we do not see our government planning for small groups of experts co-located in area near their expertise.
Used to 200,000 miles a year on a plane and still commute 20,000 miles to an office when not overseas. I now do the same work from my humble abode (sorry, no koi (those are fish) here).
Instead we see the govt figuring out how to stuff more traffic into hub & spoke designs be it air travel, rail lines, or highway layouts. To borrow a military phrase, they are still fighting the last war. That is not going to work.
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