Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
Thursday, July 19, 2007
Something's Impaired Surely
Seven Hundred and Seventy million dollars. That's not an impairment, that's an amputation. That's the amount Pulte Homes (PHM) took yesterday in land impairment. Stock buyers/sellers didn't blink and traded as if everything was fine. One company, one quarter, land value "impairments" alone taking away 15% of net asset value and no reaction? Pass the tinfoil.
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murst and moist
usually rob these kinds of things aren't really news and are already priced into the stock. sometimes they even move up as the expected news was not as bad as expected. of course you know all this. it is off over half of it's high in 2005. although I would expect a bit more of a haircut in the next 6 months.
What does land impairment mean?
Tinfoil? As in hats?
I'm thinking it's more like blinders. That or Valium.
Say you buy land for $20K/acre to build a development. You decide not to build your development. Then, when you go to sell your land, you can only get $10K per acre.
That's land impairment.
I believe land impairment refers to land builders have purchased for construction that falls in value.
I live in Northern VA, in an exurb. Pulte has been trying to close out 7 houses here for the last 6 months. It's starting to look pathetic. They aren't interested in lowering the price much (yet). But they are going ahead and building them "fully loaded" for a bit lower than their base price was two years ago.
They also sold off 4 lots to a different builder. That was bizarre.
Another thing they did was shut down their factory where they manufactured their houses. There were certain neighborhoods built with pre-formed basement walls and structural insulated panels. I think they were also framed with a lot of steel. I was cheering for that type of construction to continue, but they couldn't do it anymore because it could only be done to profit them on a massive scale.
The braintrust at Calculated Risk surely has the correct answer but my take on land impairment is more than just owned land falling in value. I think it is also paying to get out of contracted land purchases and also letting purchase options expire worthless. The part I don't know about is when those types of transactions are booked. Worst case being that they bought land cheap but booked it dear because they had added value with their plans to sell. I know the rules say book at the LOWER of purchase price or market value but since when in the last 8 years have the rules mattered to the housing industry? Besides I see land purchase arm of a company "selling" the land to the construction arm selling to the marketing/sales arm and that kind of nonsense being entirely possible thus obeying the law and still marking up asset values. Kind of like NRU and their stable of one click properties.
For a moment I thought the picture was showing the steam-pipe explosion that took place yesterday evening in Manhattan...
"interview" with Jennifer Crisp of Crisp and Cole fame...
http://bakersfieldbubble.blogspot.com
Alright Rob, that photo. What are you foreshadowing?
Alright Rob, that photo. What are you foreshadowing?
The picture represents the size of one of Casey's... err... orifices, after a couple of days in federal lockup.
An impairment means that the value of something you owned is lower than it was but not due to use or normal activities. It would be a loss on sale if they sold the land, this is effectively the same as a stock that goes down in value while you hold it. You have less assets then previously but it doesn't change what you paid for it nor your ultimate selling price (which may be higher or lower than the impaired price) since you don't have to sell at the impaired level.
26 indicted on mortgage scheme...........Galina Zhigun, the owner of mortgage brokerage AGA Capital NY, Inc. who along with other individuals is accused of processing the fraudulent loan applications.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/07/10/real_estate/subprime_fraud/index.htm?postversion=2007071218
I see Pulte has decided to kick themselves in the nuts now, rather than later. I expected to see many of the HB parse out their impairments to level out evenly over several quarters or when quarter had better numbers (re: Tech companies booking sales when they needed it and save some for bad quarters). But since there have been no good quarters for HBs recently and the street doesn't seem to care, the HBs are taking their lumps now.
And now I've seen impairments cover both land and completed (but not sold) homes. For the homes, I guess it's the price they expected to see the home for minus what they expect to see the home for now.
"26 indicted on mortgage scheme..........."
A prime example of the kind of people the FBI makes it a priority to prosecute. Casey is a small fish - my bet is he doesn't see a single day inside a jail cell - notwithstanding LossMitPunk and his circus monkey "ex parte" circle-jerks.
thppttt!!
S_t_c
Rob, I'm not saying this to be rude, because I have a pretty low opinion of sell side analysts, but don't you think these things were already priced in? There is a reason home builders are trading at or below their book value instead of at 1.5x to 2.0x book value as they do in normal times -- that book value is largely fiction and is expected to decrease. What happened yesterday was just the confirmation of expected events.
The real trick on these stocks is understanding how good/bad things will be 2,3,5 years from now.
Nate
(Overheard at the Kiyosaki residence)
"Robert,honey? I thought you said that flaky new cabana boy you hired out of California knew how to clean pools."
"Well,he SAID he had extensive experience with their maintenance,why?"
"Because our pool turned an unearthly shade of green,began bubbling,and sank into the Earth.
Look out back."
"SONOFABITCH! Caseeeeeeeey! You FUCK!"
Shary
You can be a real S.O.B.
I like that!!!
Oh yes, front page of Boston Globe has story of green alge that showed up and will stop Saturday's Charles River swim. No word if they have found any koi yet...
H
where did everybody go. I need my seeruin fix.
I am personally going through http://caseyhaterz.com withdrawl.
Pleazzzzzzzzze bring it back up soon. I need my fix :-)
New post. He hired a lawyer and is requesting donations.
I think LMP got a TRO on CHC. He now owns the domain and is going to sell it to recover his costs.
Is CHC based in Phoenix and did they hire KC? The people that ragged on KC for his "mad IT skillz" are now displaying their own "mad IT skillz"
Anyways, there is worm sign. I think he's bluffing though. I am going to look into it!
I think a lot of builders wish that hole would come to their development and let the insurance company cover the losses instead of facing the losses they are to take.
Galina Zhigun, the owner of mortgage brokerage AGA Capital NY, Inc. who along with other individuals is accused of processing the fraudulent loan applications.
Nobody made fun of her first name? Was it just too obvious?
I'm telling ya, caseyhaterz should go with asmallorange.com. They are really, really good and give personalized attention. They won't just shut down a site without notice for exceeding bandwidth.
He now owns the domain and is going to sell it to recover his costs.
Could someone point me in the direction of LMP's explanation of his costs?
Anita, I haven't seen any explanation. All I got was, none of your business, trust me it's all legit.
Anita -
He had a (roughly) $300 filing fee and .... that totals up to $1,500. Simple and clear right? Just trust him...
He has refused to say where he came up with the number, as he simply cannot justify it.
OT: the name Galina is turning up all over the place now. Just the other day at the grocery store I noticed the cashier was "Galina".
Worm sign!
mejustme,
Thanks, I thought there had to be one and I just wasn't channeling my inner Benoit very well :)
"the job is Phoenix is very tempting".
Oooh, new shiny!
Can't wait for him to start begging for help in moving to Phoenix.
And even more worm signs. All three of the comments are from KC. My Dawg senses are tingling...
NR
Just trust him...
No comment.
He had a (roughly) $300 filing fee and .... that totals up to $1,500. Simple and clear right? Just trust him...
I speculated that part of the additional costs may be due to the two "predominant" IP lawyers he consulted on the Marty contract and rights assignment.
But whatever: he's not saying.
Casey's up to five comments now; taking a break; his Moderation Power Team (he has *multiple* moderators now? Supporterz Power...) is on-the-job.
"I have enough supporters."
@lawnmower man
"I have enough supporters."
::snark on::
Yeah, and combined, their total earnings can cover the $1500 and one Jamba Juice!
::snark off::
Could be his mom again?
"I’m gonna step away from the computer."
Nap time!
Mom?! Mom?! The mean guys are suing me because I scammed them, can I PLEASE have $1,500?
Mark, if you are out there, any comment on the viability of a Turdflake countersuit?
archiving:
"Hey Kid;
"I retained an attorney yesterday and it cost me $1500."
You're a genius,hobbit. I really don't know how you manage to step on your dingus so consistently.
You COULD have honored your side of the settlement, and your dear Toilet Scrubber would have been 25 thousand dollars closer to breaking the surface and being able to breathe.
Instead,you pulled on a pair of golf spikes and stomped down hard, and now you,(or your financial backer) is out $1500.
BTW...the fact that your mouthpiece wanted his money up front...what does that tell you about the merits of this fabulous countersuit you two have dreamed up?
I don't know what kind of ambulance-chasin' ham-n-egger you MAY have retained, (does he even speak English?),but the lawyer I know, who sued sitting President Clinton,(and won), worked that case on contingency.
If you have a case,and the rabbit can afford to pay,usually the attorney will work for a cut.
BTW, little puppet, the hall...Oakland...job...benefits...room and board."
Snowflake: I guess this is similar to the famous Beg-a-thon I had a few months ago, but this time I’m not going to do stupid stuff for $10.
Reminds me of the punchline for the old joke: "We already know what you are, now we're just discussing the price"
So, how much will it cost to get you to do stupid stuff?
Murseboi: All I can say is HIGHLY slanted and repeated mention of “mortgage fraud”.
*snork*
How dare he accuse you of repeated counts of mortgage fraud?
I really hope this is what Casey believes is standing for a countersuit. I'm sure Mark could prove to the court, in full and excruciating detail, that Casey is indeed a mortgage fraudster.
I'm trying to imagine the caliber of attorney you can retain for $1500 of "my saved money." I'm guessing AmbulanzChasrzRUs. Speaking of that-- he has money saved? Ugh.
If you have a case,and the rabbit can afford to pay,usually the attorney will work for a cut.
Yep. At the office I work for, we usually get the client to pony up for any filing fees, but our time is on contingency.
For $1500, he's almost certainly paying a retainer fee (and not a flat fee), so he's only going to get about ten hours of work, tops, before he either has to pay more money or drop the case. (And, ten hours could've been a good faith estimate by the attorney of the time for the complete case--do you think that Flippy Dolittle might have left out, covered up, or forgotten some important facts during the interview?)
Perhaps KC (or his corporation:) sold the 1.3 million shares of GSPG to raise cash. At 0.0011 (yes about one tenth of a cent) he (I mean the corp:) would get $1,430 minus commission. And (0.0034-0.0011)*1.3 million = $2,990 short term loose to write off his taxes.
Another win-win.
Am I the only who is wondering if the "$1500 for a retainer" is a merely a troll to Mark, as $1500 was about what Mark was looking to collect in the settlement?
Loved his comment about being offered a position with a base salary and commission or a piece of the company. Who in the F would want to give Casey ownership in anything they're doing?
-do you think that Flippy Dolittle might have left out, covered up, or forgotten some important facts during the interview?
Yeah, but "its all good". Its not if the things left out were really that important.
I'm trying to imagine the caliber of attorney you can retain for $1500 of "my saved money."
In a rural area, that would be a common up-front fee, but with someone like Casey, you would require additional deposits once the retainer is expended, rather than sending monthly bills like you might do with someone who has assets and/or a good reputation.
segfault -- Do you think he might have retained an attorney from a far outlying rural area? Casey lives in a suburb of Sacramento, which is a pretty decent sized city, and the state capitol.
Elizabeth:
Let me clarify. I was talking about a rural area of Flyover Country, where I live, rather than a "rural" area of California. I can't imagine getting an attorney in California to fog a mirror for $1500 unless they're really desperate for work.
At 11:22 AM, mejustme said...
yeah, the name galina is too ironic. i'm surprised that you were the only one who noticed the coincidence.
What if everyone stopped hating and started donating dirty pennies to Casey via PayPal? They could help him pay off his creditors one dirty penny at a time.
Does PayPal still charge $0.30 per transaction?
I just read on the Sacramento County Court website that tomorrows OSC between Mark and Casey has been dropped from the calendar.
http://www.saccourt.com/courtrooms/trulings/dept53/d53-2007-0720-0200.pdf
If the above link doesn't get you there, you can go to the Sacramento Court website and look for tentative rulings. In the section for Department 53 under Judge McMasters you can click on July 20. Scroll down until you get to Mark vs Casey. I believe it is item 13 or 14.
It is item 15 and it is on Judge Gunthers Docket.
> tomorrows OSC between Mark and Casey has
> been dropped from the calendar.
I'm feeling a song coming on...
Brave Old Marky ran away.
Bravely ran away away.
When danger reared it's ugly head,
He bravely turned his tail and fled.
Yes, brave Old Marky turned about
And gallantly he chickened out.
Bravely taking to his feet,
He beat a very brave retreat.
Casey posted on his site that "his lawyer" and Mark are settling the matter.
The OSC was cancelled earlier than this afternonn if it made it onto the tentative ruling site. They don't update that real time. I found it about 1.00 pst
"My attorney told me to hold my tongue, so I’m trying hard to do that."
It won't last.
He is packing it in and packing it up
And sneaking away and buggering up
And chickening out and pissing off home,
Yes, bravely he is throwing in the sponge...
Hopefully, we wont be hearing, yet again, how all is well and swell between Mark and Casey.
I will puke again. I am on my 3rd new keyboard now. Lost the other 2 with Pukes from previous all is good BS.
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