Hat tip to TK for reminding us of the infamous Greag Swann post of one year ago yesterday:
In any case, here do I compile my list of 21 really good reasons to bank on the future of the Phoenix area real estate market:
The migration from the Snow Belt states to Metropolitan Phoenix has been unabated for 60 years.
A similar extended migration is now occurring from the Northwestern states and Western Canada.
The “installed base” of all those migrants brings a steady stream of extended family members.
Proposition 13 makes moving up difficult in California; many Golden State sellers buy in the Phoenix area.
Californians in pursuit of other objectives — e.g., a friendlier business climate — migrate to the Valley of the Sun.
Baby Boomers will retire in droves to warmer climes — the Atlantic coast, the Gulf states and the Southwest.
Among those locales, Phoenix is by far the least prone to natural disasters.
Because of this, people from disaster-afflicted regions have formed a new stream of in-migration.
There is a steady migration of new residents from Spanish- and Portuguese-speaking countries south of the border.
Phoenix is a destination of choice or the second-landing city for immigrants from all over the world.
While higher oil prices will put a strain on our far-flung suburbs, the greatest pain will be felt in Northern states where fuel oil or natural gas are used as heat sources; even people who don’t hate the winter will move to the Phoenix area to escape high heating bills.
The Phoenix Metropolitan area is a dynamic jobs creation machine, adding tens of thousand of new jobs every year.
People who have or hope to have children move here as soon as they can manage it.
Compared to the areas from which many of our in-migrants are drawn, our homes are still very affordable.
We build thousands more new homes every year.
The Greater Phoenix area has 60 years of sustained practice at managing extreme growth — this in contrast to thrashing cities like Las Vegas.
Snowbirds, politely known as Our Winter Visitors, eventually move here year-around.
Our first waves of massive migration occurred after WW II; mustered out soldiers who had been stationed here came back with their families; this pattern continues among people who are posted here temporarily for various reasons.
People who stay at our resorts often fall in love with the Valley of the Sun and return as soon as they are able.
A significant number of active and retired professional athletes maintain homes here, in no small part because the Phoenix/Scottsdale area has…
Year-around golf.
It could be there’s too much sun here for congenital cellar-dwellers — but that’s a good thing!
----
Thanks Greg!
40 comments:
First and original Flying Monkey !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
@FMW Do you wear a brown shirt?
And did you a a good Haterz™ meet?
What a load of gaseous pickled tripe!
Phoenix Inventory courtesy of BMIT:
07/2005: 11,656
07/2006: 52,662
07/10/2007: 60,950
07/22/2007: 61,921
@ Wagga,
I had fun, but if there were haterZ there I forgot to tell them I am the tall thin brunette with long hair, a mini skirt and a brown shirt on, so I guess they did not reconiZe me.
Thanks for asking. The last time I had a party there were 75 people there!
Oh well, we are all GU's I guess, silly me.
(Geographically Undesirable)
tee he
@fmw
Here on the West Coast, we're Geologically Undesirable.
But anyway, as you know, Annie has my cyberheart. And sometimes Aspeth.
It could be there’s too much sun here for congenital cellar-dwellers — but that’s a good thing!
Yeah, he wouldn't want to sell a house to one of those. They are high class in Phoenix. LOL. Over 60k inventory? Man, that's worse than last year! I bet that doesn't include a lot of FSBOs, builder inventory, discouraged would-be sellers, etc. Ka BOOM!
Other than its been a really hot summer, Phoenix is a nice place. Bad for house flippers, but fine for the rest of us..
If you bought 2 or 3 years ago, you're doing fine.. If you bought 1 yr ago and need to sell immediately, youare in deep deep trouble...
Deals can be had. It's a nice change for those of us who actually live here, rather than those who just buy to prop up prices and hopefully sell for more than they paid.
P.S. - Traffic is bad enough, please stay whereever you are.. Don't come to Phoenix.. tia
Housingtracker.net reports Phoenix:
Trend 07/16/2007 1 month 3 month 6 month 12 month
Median Price $299,876 -0.0% -3.9% -4.8% -7.7%
Inventory 46,791 +0.0% +4.8% +23.8% +18.8%
@FMW
If you're a flying monkey, geography makes no difference.
@Dawg
Your conclusions are false because your premises are false. There is a surfeit of resale inventory, but many of the sellers are not truly motivated. Sales volumes are normal, where the 15 months prior to September 2005 was extremely abnormal. Your backward-looking analysis doesn’t look back far enough.
ROFL!
Thanks again for the hat tip. This is great stuff.
"I’m being fed to the lions with only a wooden stick to defend myself and tens of thousands of people are watching and rooting. Some are rooting for the lions, some are rooting for me."
This could be the most astute thing Casey Serin ever said.
who's rooting for him again?
Year-around golf.
Yeah if you like being burnt to a crisp six months of the year. I lived there a few years. Survived weeks of 110+ degree temperatures, and the one-day record of 122. Late night summer temps barely dipping below 100. Seriously, you can walk outside your apartment at midnight and still feel the heat radiating off the concrete. People in Phx treat summer like people in the northeast treat winter. I.e., stay indoors as much as possible, dash from your air-conditioned car to the air-conditioned mall and then back again. Not fun.
October thru April though is fantastic. Your best bet is to be a "snowbird," living up north during the summer and coming to Phx only during the dark of the year.
Phx part II: Monsoon Season
Fun time and a great relief from the early summer heat. Usually hits in July and August. Moist air up from the Pacific (or is it the Gulf?) Brings intense gales of wind which push giant dust-storms into the city, blocking out the sun (yay!) Followed by brief but torrential downpours and flooding in low areas (something to look for if you're looking at properties in town.) Awesome electrical storms. Best part, the clouds and rain bring the temps down to a comfy 90 degrees or so (downright chilly by Phx standards) but only for a few hours.
Just new at IAFF...
I’ve been in contact with a group that helps borrowers fight predatory lenders. They review your mortgage documents and look for any Truth-in-Lending violations and any other red flags. Then there is an option to sue the lender and sometimes even get your mortgage forgiven. This company also has a network of qualified real estate attorneys to help take these cases into the courts on a low cost or contingency basis.
I didn’t have much desire to go this route before because I figure, what the use? I was about to lose everything in foreclosure and I just wanted a way to sell those houses and be done with it. But I was always interested in the idea behind it. I was going to talk about this company on my blog before in order to help homeowners who may have been taken advantage of, but never got a chance to do it, since it wasn’t something I needed at the time.
However, NOW things have changed a bit. There is a very good reason for me to have my mortgage documents looked at by an expert. We’ll see what he says… Hopefully I’ll get an answer back by the end of the week.
archiving:
"#104 chitownplmbrbob:
"If you really wan’t to make the best of the next few years then join the marine corps. You will come out of it mentally strong and ready to take on the world. "
No, bob, Snowflake doesn't have what it takes for any of the Armed Forces, and ESPECIALLY the Marines.
I was a Marine, (a grunt), and above all else...beyond ANYTHING else, your fellow Marines need to be able to count on you...that you'll do the right thing even when no-one is watching.
It's called "Duty".
This maggot has shown utterly no sense of duty to anybody or anything.
If, by some dark miracle, he should find himself wearing the Eagle, Globe, and Anchor of the Marine Corps, I'd make a special trip to find him and thump the bejesus out of him for besmirching MY Marine Corps.
I'd then make it a hobby to find the unit he was inflicted upon, and inform the platoon sergeant that they just found the guy they were looking for to "walk the point" or be "first through the doorway".
And sadly, because Fliptard's such an unreliable and untrustworthy little sh*tbag, that means that better men than he need to perform those high-mortality duties."
Re: Casey and the mortgage reviews.
I think Casey should google the "doctrine of unclean hands" before he starts suing.
I wonder what has changed? Perhaps one of his lenders is actively going after him? Is this related to his meeting last Friday?
Crossposted to CaseyWorld™, in response to his post echoed here
Humm, didn't some of the 'haters' suggest this to you almost 1 year ago? This looks like a year late and half a million dollars short or so.
Maybe we 'haters' are realists that deal with problems up front instead of giving out the its all good line. This is important because sometimes, as you are finally realizing now, it is not all good!
That means many of your supporters are running around under the influence of some or another mind altering drug.. repeating its all good like some mindless droid.
@Whoever
The "doctrine of unclean hands" also applies to mortgage brokers/lenders. They will be asking for help of the court in pursuing Casey for money owed. If the mortgage brokers broke the law in the formation of the mortgage.. then Casey can use the "doctrine of unclean hands" as an affirmative defense. (In particular if it was obvious to the lenders that Casey did not have the financial resources to handle the carry cost on the mortgages)
This is one of the things I thought LossMitPro was going to do to help Casey way way back when.. before Casey had yet another BrainFart™ and changed his mind.
Foreclosures are down y-over-y in Houston.
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/4987364.html
Haha suckers, it's different here.
Wasn't the hard money payment due a few weeks ago? Did Casey pay that already? BTW, how is a hard lender different from, said, Contrywide?
A hard lender is called that because if you don't pay them back they will f*** you.
Casey's FICO was 691!
Are they worse than cash call then? From your description it seems these lenders aren't real financial institutions as we understand them.
@BJ:
The doctrine can apply both ways. In Casey's latest post, he posits the idea of actually suing his former lenders. It might lead to some kind of stalemate (if both sides have unclean hands).
Whoever, the FBI doesn't care about unclean hands. All they care about is who broke the law.
I was about to lose everything in foreclosure ...
There is a very good reason for me to have my mortgage documents looked at by an expert.
First Flippy you LOST everything in foreclosure. Done, no do overs in Realworld™.
Second, we see through your lies. Casey wants "his" documents, all of them because in Casey's piggy little brain it finally dawned that they amount to a "Pearl Harbor File" of his misdeeds and co-conspirators. This is just a transparent attempt to get and destroy evidence.
NOW he has really upset me. Consumer protection laws, not-for-profit organizations of the Citizens Advice Bureau type where I've spent 4 years of Saturday afternoons once upon a time were not designed for people like HIM.
He knew full well what he was doing. Truth in Lending organizations helping him ? I wish he'd name them - then we can act accordingly.
-K
Second, we see through your lies. Casey wants "his" documents, all of them because in Casey's piggy little brain it finally dawned that they amount to a "Pearl Harbor File" of his misdeeds and co-conspirators. This is just a transparent attempt to get and destroy evidence.
He can't destroy evidence. Everything exists in servers these days. Destroying hard copies won't help him one bit. Even the signed copies must have been scanned long ago.
Besides, if he's talking about banks, you can be sure they won't let Casey get away with it. Every other debt beat that bought a house they couldn't afford would be entitled to have their mortages thrown away.
I think Casey is desperate to bait haterz and other people to his blog. He already figured out people are attracted to the drama and not to his worthless RE advice.
expecting this next:
"Hey guys I wanted to shut down the site as planned, but then I learned that the banks attacked me and they were after me. They also put a gun to my head and send me to Aussieland. While I was there, I think they had sex with my wife. They infected her with brainwashing drugs that Joseph McCarthy would be impressed with. So I'm going to blog. It might be the only way to save the universe."
I posted about a week ago that I thought he would end up going this route. I just wonder if he read the threads about said topic or if someone honestly sought him out.
I am seriously seriously angry that he is wanting to pursue that angle.
Lou Minatti
Foreclosures are down y-over-y in Houston.
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/4987364.html
Haha suckers, it's different here.
Not really, they just found suckers to buy them.. and I know one of them.. The one I know is a Californian.. go figure.
One question for fliptard:
Who protects the banks from predatory borrowers? Because that's exactly what he is. I wonder if this organization really knows the way it all went down? Should be interesting to see what their answer is. Meantime, it would be nice to know (seems he's smart enough to know we'd be sending them some information if he'd named names) who these people are.
@Whoever
The doctrine can apply both ways. In Casey's latest post, he posits the idea of actually suing his former lenders. It might lead to some kind of stalemate (if both sides have unclean hands).
Bingo.. and it is definitely better than just being on the 'receiving end'..
@Lou Minatti
Whoever, the FBI doesn't care about unclean hands. All they care about is who broke the law.
True.. and which way will the FBI make a bigger 'splash'?
@Rob Dawg
Casey wants "his" documents, all of them because in Casey's piggy little brain it finally dawned that they amount to a "Pearl Harbor File" of his misdeeds and co-conspirators. This is just a transparent attempt to get and destroy evidence.
True, but it is also ammunition against those coming after him. They are documents that cut both ways. Remember, the lenders have the other copy of many of these! As for documents outside of the lender agreements, umm.. that is a different story. This is why I was repeating (along with at least one other person) that these documents need to be secured. I would suggest that Galina use a scanner and generate images of these documents. Send these off to Casey. 100dpi should be good enough. JPGs so that colors are good. If he wants 'reproduceability', 300dpi.
@sk
NOW he has really upset me. Consumer protection laws, not-for-profit organizations of the Citizens Advice Bureau type where I've spent 4 years of Saturday afternoons once upon a time were not designed for people like HIM.
As much as I despise Casey, he was very much the last fool holding the bag. He thought he was clever, but was fooled by those better at it.
I do want to see Casey pay for what he has done, but I also want the predatory lending dealt with. I look at it from a scope. How many people did Casey adversely affect, how many did predatory lending affect? In many cases, people who could qualify for prime/fixed were pushed to sub-prime/adjustable or Alt-A.
BJ,
I, for one, wholeheartedly agree with your position.
"Baby Boomers will retire in droves to warmer climes — the Atlantic coast, the Gulf states and the Southwest."
How many studies have to be done to show that boomers aren't moving more than 5-10 from where they've always lived when they retire? I got an asshat in Chicago that keeps saying retiring boomers are going to move from the suburbs to the city and chew up all those unsold condos downtown. AIN'T HAPPENIN'!
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