Young Snowflake has been very optomistic of late. A seeming contradiction to tomorrow's doubleheader foreclosurepalozza. No one should be surprised. It is about time for his personality swing to take an upturn and you need to be able to translate from Realworld™ to Caseyworld™. In Caseyworld™ he has these two houses. They are not bringing in any money, they are running up the big scary numbers on this spreadsheet and they fill his mailbox every week with scary mail. In Caseyworld™ after tomorrow all those things will go away. Best of all he didn't have to do any work himself. Win-win.
Sunday, February 25, 2007
Make it go away
Young Snowflake has been very optomistic of late. A seeming contradiction to tomorrow's doubleheader foreclosurepalozza. No one should be surprised. It is about time for his personality swing to take an upturn and you need to be able to translate from Realworld™ to Caseyworld™. In Caseyworld™ he has these two houses. They are not bringing in any money, they are running up the big scary numbers on this spreadsheet and they fill his mailbox every week with scary mail. In Caseyworld™ after tomorrow all those things will go away. Best of all he didn't have to do any work himself. Win-win.
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73 comments:
First!
IMO the real fun is yet to come, I hope snowflake keeps us updated on how he pays back his promissory notes due in April.
A male prostitute was arrested at one of knuckleheads sacramento properties.Evidently knucklehead claims to not have any relation with the prostitute.The house was being used to service clients according to police reports.
I predict that if Casey manages to get up in time for these auctions, he'll head down and spend most of his time trying to find ways to stage artful photographs.
Casey's long nightmare is about to come to an end - his houses will foreclose; he will BK, which by definition will get rid of all his debt; and then he can get moving on juicing more "Sweet Deals", without having to worry about all the extraneous and irrelevant baggage of his last foray into real estate. Soon, the spreadsheet will be wiped clean in CaseyWorld (TM)!
And remember, you don't have to repay a promissisory note if you don't think that you should be required to repay the promissory note!
"A male prostitute was arrested at one of knuckleheads sacramento properties.Evidently knucklehead claims to not have any relation with the prostitute.The house was being used to service clients according to police reports."
Please tell me that this is true and you are not trolling. It's not nice to tease us like that.
Yeah, Larry flynt. Got anything or just wishful thinking. Everything we've ever heard about the houses is abandoned in residential neighborhoods. Most places that's something the neighbors watch real close.
Is anyone else having trouble posting comments on EN lately? For the last couple of days, I've usually gotten a blank page (after a long delay) if I use my gmail account. If I select "Other", put in a name, and click Publish, I end up back at the comment page with my comment still in the edit box and not posted.
This is particularly annoying this weekend, when I'm laid up with a minor back injury and have little to do but sit in front of the computer.
ogg, you mean it's not easy enough for a caveman to do it?
ogg, you mean it's not easy enough for a caveman to do it?
A little off-topic, but from the Too Little Too Late? file:
http://tinyurl.com/38lzyl
And from the Ruh-Roh file:
http://tinyurl.com/2vqvxe
Need more coffee. Mornin' everybody.
-jbjbj
Rob Cockerham at cockeyed.com wrote a big article on the NRU signs that are cluttering up the streets of Sacramento. It's a funny article, and since he caters to a different audience than you or Serin, this is exposure NRU might not want but definitely needs.
I don't think our hero will BK, or not by choice, anyway. From the hints he's dropped, I suspect it was explained to him that if he files for BK, the BK judge will have to officially become aware (the phrase "Judicial Notice" comes to my mind) of our hero's feloneous deeds and actions. And that could interfere with our hero's fantasies of waltzing away from this mess free as a bird to pursue more sweet deals building his real estate empire.
As for any prosecution of our hero being launched, in my humble opinion, there's enough agencies investigating him for someone to have enough to get an indictment. I think what it will take to get things going, though, is a campaign of newspaper editorials and TV news wossnames asking the powers that be "Why aren't you doing something about this Casey Serin person?"
Somewhere here (EN) there was a slight discussion of Christianity. As a non-Christian, I've discovered what all Christian denominations have in common. Every and each denomination believes that THEY are right and all the other ones are "not real Christians".
For those of us with long memories, remember in September when our hero described himself as an "aspiring Real Estate investor". He later began calling himself a "real estate investor". Lately he's calling himself a "would-be real estate mogul". Is it just possible our hero is beginning to get the slightest of an inkling of a clue?
Naw. There's a better chance of Stephanie J begging me to have my way with her. Even though my Freightliner is dirtier than her Jeep. Sigh... The world isn't fair... it's just round.
wow, sounds like homeless bob is turning tricks.
if the blue car is a rockin, don't come a knockin.
yikes!
Casey hasn't updated his debt spreadsheet in nearly a month. Anyone want to head over to IAFF and lambaste him for it? ;-)
"Casey hasn't updated his debt spreadsheet in nearly a month."
No need - the Gods of CaseyWorld(TM) are about to wipe the slate clean. (Or so he thinks...)
Clearly tomorrow he'll update the spreadsheet to reflect that he no longer owes anything on the two foreclosed properties just like the $50k promissary note. which should about now be triggering first payment default alarms in Simi Valley and Calabasas.
I've kinda figured out what Casey hasn't even processed. He's treating his experiment in real estate like they were futures contracts. I've had a few futures contracts expire worthless and it is tough but that's the end of it. Casey doesn't have a futures account at a trading house, he has specific performance contracts that were only backed by the underlying commodity not garuanteed by them. Were I Countrywide I'd garnish his prison wages. Unfortunately for Casey I am not Countrywide. You see I wouldn't go after sis and parents. They will. Mom, dad and siblings wil get the soft touch at first but soon they'll be told; pay of he goes to prison. Than pay or you get hauled into court where it doesn't matter because innocent costs MORE to defend than guilt. Cerditiors, not just CFC will squeeze every name they can pull from everyone involved until they are sure there's nothing left and then throw the dessicated bodies to the IRS.
I will start nagging him about updating his spreadsheet after I (Alexis) finish nagging him about posting his daily activities.
I've been at it for a while and he's acknowleged it a few times now; plus some other posters are starting to join in on the fun.
Today I sent him a list of all the exciting things I did just to show him how easy it is. You have to speak to him like a child - in patient tones and repeating yourself a lot - if you want him to listen. That's how Tim from MBA finally got him to do the spreadsheet in the first place.
Hey Ogg,
It does that to me too sometimes. I just copy my comment, then close the comment window and reopen. Then paste my comment and resubmit. It always goes through for me the second time.
Rob, I've been thinking about the Casey situation for some time.
Casey's debt is with multiple lenders across multiple states. The legal costs and administrative costs alone would not justify going after him legally, and criminal proceedings don't actually do much good for the banks.
Consider that employing a decent lawyer is going to cost roughly $100,000 a year minimum. Any given court case that requires significant involvement is going to take quite a bit of time. Even if the evidence is open like it is, the formal process for acknowledging and verifying the situation is very, very expensive. The costs to go to court are very expensive.
He's 2.2 million in debt, but the losses to the lenders are a total of $600,000 or so. If you divide that by 4 or 5 different lenders, the cost to the lender is actually less than or equal to what it costs to use a legal team. Furthermore, he's a pauper. There's no money to be gained from suing him, unless the lenders pool their resources. Since the lenders operate individual business entities and are unlikely to cooperate with each other, the cost-side of going after Casey doesn't make sense.
It isn't good business to go after Casey-types after the fact. It makes more sense to price them into the model before-hand and use sane lending practices. This is what enrages the hater community since we all end up paying higher rates, but that's how it works.
The thing is, even if there were no Casey-style fraud cases out there, we'd still be paying higher rates. People lose jobs, die, succumb to lawsuits, etc. The banker's job is simply to account for these situations statistically. And, looking at the situation from a statistical perspective, Casey represents a very small fraction of overall loss-causing scenarios and is a statistically insignificant case.
If everyone became a Casey, the mathematics of the models would change and the market would adjust accordingly. Overall, though, his situation is not something that lending models and loan-pricing situations should not have accounted for.
Anonymous @3:55PM
Yes, that's true from a static point of view, but lenders may also consider a more dynamic picture, where they would go after the high profile cases (which Casey has made himself into) in order to deter future fraud. Their cost-benefit calculations shouldn't be in terms of individual cases like this, but should account for future cases that would be avoided by severely punishing Casey now.
@ Nadia
"Every and each denomination believes that THEY are right and all the other ones are "not real Christians"."
I don't think that's restricted to Christian denonminations. That's just groups of people in general. Sunnis/Shiites, Repubs/Dems, East Coast/West Coast, Innies/Outies. We like to take sides.
Continuation of the last comment --
The model works because most of us follow the rules. In a sense, we do have a right to be outraged that people like Casey do what they do. However, it's better for us to insist that lenders stick to intelligent lending practices than to resort to law enforcement. He's going to cost society -even more- in jail, not to mention tie up the legal system and cost even more there.
If someone out there has a strong legal background, I'd love to see the estimates on the cost of what putting Casey through court is to society versus just letting the lenders account for it in their current business models. There has to be some mathematical reasoning here.
Anonymous @3:55PM
Yes, that's true from a static point of view, but lenders may also consider a more dynamic picture, where they would go after the high profile cases (which Casey has made himself into) in order to deter future fraud. Their cost-benefit calculations shouldn't be in terms of individual cases like this, but should account for future cases that would be avoided by severely punishing Casey now.
Yes, but how high-profile is Casey? Mortgagefraudblog.com alone has cases that are far higher profile and have a lot more money involved. There's no way his case has even the clout of something like Britney Spears shaving her head.
Casey is hardly that high-profile. For most people who saw him in USA Today, they were shocked and then they simply went away. I fail to see why it would serve me (and the rest of the public) if this guy got caught. It's almost against our interests to pursue this guy on the basis of cost unless we're absolutely certain there's a public benefit. Otherwise, we all end up losing even more just going after him.
Justice would feel great in this situation, but it doesn't make sense for our collective pocketbooks. If any of us haters could say "putting Casey away would save us X dollars in the futures for Y dollars in cost now" where X/Y is significantly greater than 0, then I say throw him in the slammer. It's justifiably good to punish him then, regardless of his lunacy about whether or not he deserves it. Of course he -deserves- jail, but does it actually make sense for us to put him there on a numbers basis?
You see, we as a society made a huge mistake in creating such a demand for legal services. When justice is required (as in this case), it's not practical because of the dollar values associated with it. Right now, though, I'm suspect of the claim that it's in our interest to throw our governmental resources into throwing this guy into jail.
Kinda OT, but...
Can anyone point me at the post with the original "Special snowflake" rant in the comments? I've searched here on "snowflake" within your blog and not found it, Rob, so it must've been in the comments? Whose was it orignally?
It just summarized the whole GenY thing so concisely that I keep wanting to send people to it to read and see if they recognize anyone....
Awww... that monstie is really cute.
@ savloah:
Try this thread.
@ Brian S. Nick:
I haven't been able to log in either here or to gmail for several days. If I close the window, reopen it, and post as "other" it works, but I'm never able to get in with my username and password.
Ogg, it is a combination of blogger and some wierd higher level domain issues. A small part, probably unnoticable, is my putting the tip jar to work and getting close to the freestanding blog rollout. Like every software project ever undertaken it has been longer and features are not all there, yet.
Steph, based on the responses the monster isn't the cutest thing posted this week.
I won't bore anyone with the details, but Google broke something in an Opera-specific way. I'm able to log in using any other browser, but since I don't get any mail at that gmail account, I can't be bothered to do so. I'll just post this way from now on.
My predictions for tomorrow's foreclosures. You know he is going to be baiting us big with this one...
1) Casey will take a picture of himself in the blue shirt.
2) He will miss one of the foreclosures or just make it seem like it's not worth his time/expense etc..
3) He will consider it a valuable valuable learning experience, and now that he has learned from it, he is ready for sweeter deals.
4) He will reiterate that he has learned something and now he is ready to do it again..just smarter this time.
5) He will once gain mourn the fact that despite his best efforts, and his 24/7 work schedule, he just was not able to avoid foreclosure.
This is my first post here.
I've been reading here for a week or so now. I've been reading Casey's blog for a couple months now and have become completely addicted. As you all know it's quite the facinating story and quite the excellent presentation on his blog.
As time has passed I've detected subtle changes in his words and attitude about his situation. Things are becoming more and more clear about what makes him tick, as it were. Right now I believe that 70% he says is disingenuous , and that number is increasing all the time.
There is no way in hell that his "big plan" coud have ever worked. Nobody disputes that. That means to me that there is another plan that he is working -- one that he is not communicating on his blog.
Personally I think it was semi-intentional fraud with his seeing the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow with all of the cash back at closing deals. That's all he could see. He acted as if the debt would go away if he could keep doing enough deals that paid him cash back at closing. His perception of debt is one of fantasy.
Anyways, I have more to say and I like this place. Good work.
my prediction: one or both of the foreclosures tomorrow will not go through due to a "last second miricle".
IAFF appears to be down....
King Friday,
So sad to see it down;).
Anonymous @ 4:08 PM:
I'm coming out (no, not that kind of coming out, you perverts)... I'm in my final year of law school. That doesn't make me terribly qualified, but most lawyers, judges, and legislators couldn't give you a figure as to the cost of prosecuting someone and keeping them in prison, either. The ballpark estimates I have heard about indicate that the total yearly cost of keeping someone in prison exceeds $35k per year. No idea where they got the figures, though. Suffice it to say that it exceeds their productive salary at an honest job if they have any sort of skills. The costs of judges, prosecutors, public defenders, and even the courtroom and its operating expenses, are probably less than that $35k figure per case if you consider the volume of cases they work...
Yes, economically, it isn't always "worth it" to prosecute someone who writes a few cold checks a year, and keep them in jail. But, I do see these people on the court docket in my county.
Anyway, you should also consider the potential cost of NOT keeping Casey incarcerated. (He hooks up with some shady corporate credit finder, and gives one or more lenders the shaft to the tune of a few million dollars, raising interest rates for the rest of us.) I would argue that the cost of keeping him in jail (and keeping him from screwing over anyone else) is very cheap insurance for the rest of society. Yes, maybe the lenders were lax and "deserved it," but maybe also, he structured the corporation in a fraudulent way, such that it was impossible to see Casey behind it all.
@Rob
Seeing the great majority of males vs females, no surprise. how about posting a piece of man-meat for the rest of us to enjoy?
There's a failed router on the path to Casey's server. Details are over at www.dreamhoststatus.com. Doesn't have anything to do with Casey, just a freak occurrence with the server his site happens to be on.
I agree with Stephanie about the man-meat. It's bad enough we have to look at people like Brian and Casey, you COULD give us something nice to look at.
Steph and Jade, Honest to gawd I have Mrs. Dawg right now reviewing the finalists for exactly that post. Sad to say my six pack from my rugby playing comes with a plastic ring these days so you'll have to settle for something like "Slider" from Top Gun.
"Slider? You stink."
How about we call the post "what Nigel's secret agent friend would look like if he existed!"
OH yeah... I'm sure he's right from Nigel's fantasies.
what about the picture of Homey?
will homey be at the auction???
@segfault:
Anyway, you should also consider the potential cost of NOT keeping Casey incarcerated. (He hooks up with some shady corporate credit finder, and gives one or more lenders the shaft to the tune of a few million dollars, raising interest rates for the rest of us.) I would argue that the cost of keeping him in jail (and keeping him from screwing over anyone else) is very cheap insurance for the rest of society. Yes, maybe the lenders were lax and "deserved it," but maybe also, he structured the corporation in a fraudulent way, such that it was impossible to see Casey behind it all.
Be realistic. What's the likelihood that Casey will get a substantial loan ever again, without the backing of someone else who has a decent credit score and some level of competence? He can never do anything again except by proxy. His corporate credit schemes aren't going to work, regardless of what his attorneys or CPAs say.
As far as "higher interest rates for the rest of us" -- Casey is a statistical anomaly. There's enough people out there WITHOUT web-sites defaulting on loans to create those extra few points of interest in those loan products as it is. Even if we incarcerate him, there is no strong statistical argument for why our interest rates would be lower in the future.
The credit score system already rewards the "good" people out there. People with higher credit scores pay lower interest rates. So I don't understand why all of you are worried about the net impact of a Casey, given the fact that you're in a different lending bracket than him with your risk accounted for already.
If your credit score is 800, you are what, over 2 standard deviations away from the norm. You're looking at a completely different risk-accounting system anyway.
The only people who genuinely have to worry about Casey's actions are the other Casey's out there -- the ones who're confined to the sub-prime lending bracket. Have you looked at the terms on his loan? His risk was accounted for several times over by the points he was paying.
Well things are just humming along tonight. I expect that both auctions will happen. My thinking is, snowflake's luck has run out. The fact his site has been down twice today for extended periods seems like an omen.
I smell toast...
Q: Will Casey make the most of what most of us would consider a life-altering event tomorrow in an attempt to capitalize on a miserabe situation?
A: ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Good point. My FICO score is 780 and there is nothing that this loser could do to affect it or me. I'm in it for the entertainment value. My prediction is that he hits one foreclosure, not both. Oh, and that he puts up a nice little video of it, too. He's funny that way.
He takes pics of dirty toilets for God's sakes.
Remember this >> the Dallas hard-money lender is the only lender who makes any Casey money because he required Casey to make a $30k down payment and to also put $30k in escrow for repairs (which were done). In other words, Casey lost at least $60k on the Dallas property while the hard money lender gets the benefit of a repaired property to sell.
I think this $60k loss to Casey is the one that pushed him into the "I don't care anymore" zone, and largely emptied his max $90k cash-back bank account.
UncleC
UncleC,
I think you are on to something with this one.
Rob,
Do you have enough money left over in the pot to pay a bounty for a pie in the face of Casey at the auction...Caught on tape, posted on utube?
Should stores stop prosecuting shoplifters over $10 items or gas thefts? I expect somebody to prosecute Casey because it is their job to protect society from predators such as Casey. The letter to family and friends seeking money at 24% return guaranteed by Deed of Trusts on property on its way to foreclosure, says it all about the life Casey will lead if not apprehended.
@Anonymous:
Most of the arguments haters use to debase Casey don't carry any weight. It's one thing to just acknowledge his special brand of lunacy, but it's another to cost society even more money just to put this guy in jail.
The other argument people use to hate Casey is that he "drove home prices up." That's like hating free-market capitalism and almost like hating what made America great. Casey's sort of speculation more or less provides liquidity to the real-estate markets -- liquidity was sorely lacking in residential real estate before the Caseys of the world got into the business. The reason home prices went up doesn't have anything to do with Casey being dumb. It has everything to do with adjusted lending practices and new mortgage products that had different risk-accounting models behind them. Casey was just an unsophisticated consumer of modern lending practices, but his stupidity was accounted for several times over.
Take a look at his loan terms: 8.625% and that's an ARM -- He was what, almost 2-3% HIGHER than a competent person almost a YEAR AGO!? With those loan terms, his stupidity was more than accounted for. His other loan was almost 2x the rate for intelligent, stable fixed-rate borrowers.
It doesn't matter to him what the loan rates are. Hell, he's never made a payment on any of them, has he? He just wants the "sweet deal" of cash back at closing. That's where the REAL money is, ya know.. [wink, wink]
Somehow I suspect L’il Snow Flake will “miraculously” survive the foreclosures – which in the end is the best thing for all. We continue to have an endless source of entertainment and simultaneously won’t have to pay for his prison time. Win-Win situation.
BTW, the Academy Awards suck – can’t believe I’m attempting to watch it by habit.
ExquisiteCorp,
I concur on all of your points.
Due to KC, I began fearing blue shirts and balls and seeing them everywhere, but dickhead's maroon shirt is even worse. So many levels of revulsion...
Love,
Exxon
Anonymous said...
@ Anonymous
Hey Anonymouses-
Can you guys or gals make up a fake name or something? All of the anons makes it a pain in the ass to reply to you. If you click the "other" button you can call yourself whatever you want, you're still anonymous, and we don't have to say "@ anon 2:13" all the time.
What happened to the crazy BDSM lady? I liked the way there were simultaneous discussions going on about BDSM and Christianity earlier.
OK, I did some of the anon posts because I am, well, lazy. I'll use this one moving forward.
Crazy BDSM lady is right here.
Dood,
Do I know you...?
No, but I like the way you say whatever is on your mind. Let's go over to the previous post and make fun of sercasey. (I think it's really a troll, but I can pretend.)
Dude,
I bet you're a Lutheran - or once was. Heh, heh...
Most prosecuted crimes cost more to prosecute than their actual "value". Think about how much simple batteries, petty robbery etc. all take up in police, judicial and prison/jail time compared to a couple hundred bucks in stitches, or the replacement cost of a stolen bike.
Even murders don't pass a cost benefit analysis. One gang banger plugging another is probably a benefit to society. Even a murder victim who has a job probably wouldn't have grossed enough in income to make up for the cost of imprisoning the murdered.
These crimes should be prosecuted though. If the criminals don't face even the slightest chance of punishment they will continue to commit crime.
There is also the issue of keeping criminals away from polite society to commit more crimes in the future. If Casey declares BK and gets off scot free he's going to keep committing more scams in the future. His CR will be clean in 7 years, IIRC. Even if it isn't he's still going to find some new way to bilk people from their money.
All I can say is, thank the deity of your choice for TiVo, because the Academy Awards really stunk up the place this year. The only parts worth watching were when the Best Song nominees were singing or when Al Gore was talking.
Well, I guess I'm still Methodist, but I don't go around advertising it.
IAFF.com Protips:
You can scroll through the 'antispam' words by changing the ## on the script:
http://iamfacingforeclosure.com/wp-content/plugins/custom-anti-spam/custom_anti_spam.php?antiselect=16
To put Casey's picture next to your name (like his posts), use casey@serin.us for the e-mail field.
One can only imagine what his work must've looked like at his 'programming' job.
Anon 9:46,
I think our time is better spent looking up the food chain rather than focusing on the fish that bites.
The most I know about Methodists is Method Acting. Other than that, it sounds fishy.
Thanks Anon 9:59!
I gave the Casey pic trick a shot. I posted as Pied Piper. Here's the list of anti-spam words:
awesome
juice
juicy
sweet
loose
deals
millions
winwin
success
cashback
equity
sweet
itsallgood
letsdoit
signhere
leverage
sweet
He left out a few though:
jamba
failforward
earlyrise
overwhelmed
outsource
naptime
blueball
overdraft
vdubs
birddog
mailman
homelessdude
anonymous @ 9:46 PM:
Exactly. Cost-benefit or not, keeping Casey out of society is a Sweet Deal (TM).
The fact that the lenders "accounted for" the risks doesn't make what he did any less reprehensible, although it may diminish our pity for the lenders.
Anyway, today is Casey's big day! I'm not sure what he hopes to gain by attending the auctions, but I'm sure we'll find out what he learned once he posts about it.
Also, you can't threaten someone with criminal prosecution if they don't pay a debt or settle a civil case... I'm not saying it never happens, but it's unlikely that the lenders would go to Casey's family under this guise (pay up or we'll put him in jail).
They're entirely free to file a civil complaint and request that the complaints of fraud be certified to the appropriate district or federal prosecutor(s) for the procurement of a criminal indictment. That's how it works in civil cases in my state, anyway.
@Exquisite Corporation
"I think our time is better spent looking up the food chain rather than focusing on the fish that bites."
I agree that the big fish should get the most attention. Casey probably(hopefully?) represents the far right hand side of the Bell curve when you look at the distribution of individual scammers. Even his gross of $2.2 million is small potatoes when compared to crooked lenders or appraisers.
If you're going to pick an individual to go after, Casey should be your man. Going after Casey will probably result in a bunch of other criminal activity coming to light. Both his own and others. I still think he's a headcase, not some slick criminal mastermind. Someone had to babystep him through the process of filling out the paperwork, what exact numbers to fill in, etc.
@Segfault:
"The fact that the lenders "accounted for" the risks doesn't make what he did any less reprehensible, although it may diminish our pity for the lenders."
Yep. Even though I think anyone offering a no doc loan is grossly negligent by default, Casey still scammed them. He lied at least eight times over. He didn't make the barest attempt at staying solvent, or solving his problem.
I think his lenders will pressure the government to file criminal charges. Countrywide probably has a bunch of political pull in California. Probably at the national level as well. I don't think the mortgage lenders will go to Casey's family. From what people have posted, Cashcall has his family as references and will pressure them to get Casey to cough up the cash.
I have little pity for the lenders as well. No docs are just insane to start with. With modern database technology they should have seen Casey's fraud ahead of time. A 24 year old no job, no assets, no money down twerp like Casey shouldn't be able to scam the system. I think we're going to see strict background and credit checks in the future when purchasing houses.
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