Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
Thursday, February 22, 2007
Been done doin' me wrong
Since it appears difficult to talk about right and wrong with Casey let's try a different tack. "Sherman, set the Wayback machine to the year 2005. We are visiting that housing bubble icon, none other than Casey Serin himself." "Gee, Mr. Peabody, isn't that kind of dangerous?... you know, the... I can't even say it." "Nonsense Sherman, this is long before even the John Stossel exposé nevermind the... the... the unpleasantness." "Okay, but what are we going to try to do?" "Why stop him of course." In its usual efficient manner the Wayback whisked us to the home of the young couple where we were astonished by what we saw. There instead of our hero plugging away at the next great deal we saw...
Aww, you finish it.
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our FFF drinking a JJ w/WS of course!
Side note - Since we have access to the Wayback Machine today, why not send Stephanie J back to kick CS's DAD in the nuts?
This is just before that fateful decision to quit his job and get into real estate fraud full time. I'm sure he was still flush from his easy 30K for the condo he sold (thanks to his folks Aleksey and Anna, who were busy doing their own flips) and lil Casey was thinking, man, 30K for one sweet deal, imagine if I do one every month!
Galina the gold digger of course was pretty gung ho about their prospects, because at this point in time, Casey was still magically pulling dollar bills out of his ass. In a few months, they would be going to Hawaii, as a business trip, they would soon have about 90K plus in cash in their bank accoutns, and they would be living large on borrowed money going on trips at the drop of a hat, hanging out in expensive hotels in colorado, eating out every night. Scamming was his business and business was GOOD.
Unfortunately, the mentally deficinet duo forgot about the costs of holding properties, and more importantly, didn't realize that at some point they would not be able to borrow any more. Tus endeth their dreams of being financially independent by the age of 25.
As Jade once remarked, "Casey doesn't seem to realize that borrowed money is NOT INCOME!"
Latest from the snowflake:
"I failed, so what? It’s not really a failure if I choose to not look at it that way. Its really an opportunity to learn. Controlling what I believe is a very important process of becoming successful."
-----
"Anything could be true. The so-called laws of Nature were nonsense. The law of gravity was nonsense. 'If I wished,' O'Brien had said, 'I could float off this floor like a soap bubble.' Winston worked it out. 'If he thinks he floats off the floor, and if I simultaneously think I see him do it, then the thing happens.' Suddenly, like a lump of submerged wreckage breaking the surface of water, the thought burst into his mind: 'It doesn't really happen. We imagine it. It is hallucination.' He pushed the thought under instantly. The fallacy was obvious. It presupposed that somewhere or other, outside oneself, there was a 'real' world where 'real' things happened. But how could there be such a world? What knowledge have we of anything, save through our own minds? All happenings are in the mind. Whatever happens in all minds, truly happens."
George Orwell, 1984
Casey will also be saying
"That isn't Bubba behind me there giving me a hot beef injection into my vegan body. If I choose not to look at it this way, then it is not happening. I am rich, I am successful, ow...."
LOL!
FWIW, he did the condo flip in 2002/2003, according to this post and his sidebar list of properties.
Arguably if he'd launched himself immediately after that he may have made money despite his bad judgement and poor management -- although that would probably simply have led to him being in an even deeper hole today.
So *something* happened *after* the condo flip to make him believe he could make it big-time.
My guess: that's when the gurus hooked him. Lil' Casey saw an informercial and thought to himself "yeah, I can do that"; a message reinforced by his repeated and expensive trips to seminarland.
Another thought experiment: what if Casey had stayed at his job and pursued real estate investment only as a sideline? Would it have worked? Would he be in a hole today?
My guess is that he would never have been able to stick the work involved, nor the lure of the sweet , sweet deal.
And while I'm looking at his sidebar: what was the deal with Sonora Avenue, NM?
He's said almost nothing about it, apart from a comment mentioning "a very small gain".
WTF does "sold FSBO via round-robin auction" mean?
I wish I could go back in time. I'd have met up with Casey and sold him a few houses.
I'm amazed at the stuff Homey pulls out. He obviously has an in but that guy is just amazing. I sure hope the Galina seeing a divorce atty is true. I would love to see all of his posts in one spot so I can go back and read it again.
After the wayback machine post, we need one to skip forward about six months. We can guess where he'll be then.
lawnmower (12:29)-
I know what a "round-robin" is GOING to be in Pelican Bay in about nine months...heh, heh.
You know, even if it were possible to show Casey in early 2006 what his situation would be by early 2007, I don't know if he would have had the sense to do anything different. Very slowly, he seems to recognize that things aren't working out, but he still hasn't grasped that the fundamental business model that he attempting to emulate is flawed. Not only has he done a horrible job at execution, but he's still drinking some Kool Aide that convinces him that there's money for someone to make easy money on flipping residential houses with minimal construction experience, minimal effort, and high-cost financing.
He still thinks that he can succeed at creating immense returns with his magic wand or whatever. In his mind, it seems to me that he thinks that he's just a victim of circumstance (collapse of the bubble markets) and some inexperience rather than simply an unworkable strategy. He (and other idiots like Nigel) fail to recognize that properly reading and anticipating a market is an actual talent, based on correctly interpreting data rather than some act of fate or regurgitating the musings of some mediot or REIC spokesman.
Until he understands basic economics and basic realities about the construction industry, he will continue to piss away any money that someone is foolish enough to lend him. Creating a successful business plan that is both coherent and actionable isn't something you can pull out of your ass or off of a guru's worksheet. Rather, it takes comprehensive understanding of one's intended product/service, the particulars of the local market, and the state of the industry. Casey has none of those things and what is worse, still doesn't understand their importance or how to acquire any of that knowledge.
So if you could take Casey from late 2005 or early 2006 to see how things look in Q1-07, he might have incorporated a few minor changes, but in the end I'm willing to bet that he would have gotten in way over his head and lost a ton of (his own and his lenders') money.
He's a victim of his own recklessness and greed. That's such a basic character flaw that additional knowledge won't be sufficient to overcome.
-walt526
"I failed, so what? It’s not really a failure if I choose to not look at it that way. Its really an opportunity to learn. Controlling what I believe is a very important process of becoming successful."
OMGWTF.
The world is going to be very hard on our little snowflake, far harder even than it has been so far. If he goes on ignoring reality just because it has a known anti-Casey bias, he's going to get hurt badly.
The gurus haven't just driven him to bankruptcy, they've warped his whole world-view. Sooner or later he's going to learn that it's not only his legion of haters who care more about objective outcomes than how he views the experience.
What post contains the Homey Galina divorce info?
Ogg, like I said in the previous comments...
"I failed, so what? It’s not really a failure if I choose to not look at it that way. Its really an opportunity to learn. Controlling what I believe is a very important process of becoming successful."
I'm thinking about doing this with my next few mortgage payments.
I won't pay, then once the bank starts calling asking for its money I will tell them that I believe I have been paying. In fact, I have been overpaying to take down the principal and they are wrong. I won't budge on this fact even when the sheriff comes to evict me after the foreclosure process is complete.
It will be an opportunity to relocate! SWEET!
_________________________________
What an effing dumb@ss. Where are the Feds?
Why hasn't someone strangled this kid yet?
No, you failed. Someone needs to make this kid face reality. What world is he living in?
Someone, please go get Louie and pay Casey a little visit. I'll pay for the plane ticket
"Foreclosure updates to come tomorrow… I’m getting an updated from all the Realtors today."
Casey:
Muncy and Larchmont go to auction on Monday.
Guadalajara goes to auction on 3/28.
How sad is it that we apparently know more about his foreclosure status than he does?
As for the Salmon Falls condo flip, I recall something about his parents chipping in some money as the down, his dad helping with repairs, then when he could not longer afford payments he sold it for a $30K profit. Not exactly a flip.
From Legion's repost of Homey comments:
Homey said
"If ya remember, I called him on dis here last year about da Able Buyer an' Finch scam an' he blew it off. Yo RB Boy, ya need ta gots yo' niggas at da FBI peep into all o' da properties dat Aleksey an' Anna gots owned an' flipped. Where do ya th'o't Casey kat learned it from? Anyone ax Casey kat where he got da money ta gank his first condo?
I see dat ya peeps been looking up Rescom. Good job. RB BOY, gots yo' peeps git on dat. There iz some real bad scamming going on dere an' Casey kat refuses ta answer anythin' about him working dere. Why iz dat?
In case ya peeps don' know, da two California houses iz set fo' acution dis here week an' da New Mexico crib fo' da end o' March. I hope all o' ya gots been calling up da lawyers on deez houses an' giving dem da 411.
This latest scam by Casey kat iz da craziest yet. Using uh dummy shell company ta obtain fraudulent loans from banks. I bet da company he uses iz incorpated in NV or DE, as dey gots da most lax corporate laws. Homey gonna be watchin ya on dis here reel close like. I will find out if ya try ta do dis here scam an' I won't let ya git away wiff it. FO SHO
I know dat Casey kat reads every one o' muh ma fuckin posts, becuase dat iz how he called da New Mexico lawyers. He called dem two days afta I posted da phone number an' case number here.
I be not going ta give him any mo' 411 ta cover his ass wiff. Sorry Casey. I don' werk fo' ya biyatch. But soon ya will be working fo' me wiff muh ma fuckin cousing Leroy making license plates an' wearing lipstick as his ho.
Casey, Chris says ta stop calling dammit!! He don' wants ta jive ta ya nahh mo. GOT IT? And why don' ya come clean about yo' nigga Andy at Countrywide????
Man, ya don' like telling da truth. Iz ya gonna tell da truth at yo' trial? Or iz ya gonna wait until Galina flips on ya? You know she has been jivin' ta her own attorney, right? RIGHT? hehehe.. yeea she has Casey kat. She iz mighty scared o' jail. She been readin yo' blog. Come one an' tell us dat ya know about dis here. It'sotay. We already know da truth. Tell us about her meeting wiff uh divorce lawya. What .....she didn't tell ya? BWAHAHAHA
Love,
Homey
PS. I WILL be there smilin at you during yo trial. COUNT ON IT"
On the first pass, I missed this gem:
I have a weakness with details and risk assessment. I see the opportunity in everything and overlook the flaws. I need to work on that or outsource that part of it out.
He wants to outsource risk assessment? Wow. How the hell... oh, wait, he already has outsourced risk assessment. To us. Too bad he doesn't listen to his "team".
Only thing better on here than reading a Homey post is reading it again. I wish I could be standing behind Casey when he reads one.
I'd rather that snake without a soul be forced to look into the future. To see how miserable his life is going to be, and know each day it is going to get worse. After his 15 minutes are up, he'll have year after year of ever increasing failure and frustration.
He is a crook! His life will play out on the fringes of society always trying to put a fast one over on somebody. When reality finally bites, it's going to bite hard and without remorse.
Poor Casey, clinging to his fanmail like a co-dependent addict clinging to his enabler.
This is the gem that caught my eye:
That’s where I failed. I had pretty good strategy: fix-n-flip. However, I failed in the fixing part. The repairs took much longer then I thought and much more money. I got taken advantage of by contractors. I underestimated the repair bill on some of the houses and bought too high. I ran out of money and am now facing foreclosure.
You gotta be kidding me?! Fix-n-flip is a strategy??? I've got a gopher in the back yard that can come up with a better strategy. And that a$$monkey can't even execute opening his mail, what made him think he could put together simultaneous "fix-n-flips"?
Wow, I'd love to be in the room when Casey reads Homey's post as well. Man, that has got to be a kick in the nuts. So far Homey seems to be batting a 1000. That guy is deep!
C: What's this shit I hear about you talking to a lawyer:
G: It's true, so STFU, get me some money NOW or GetTheFuckOut!
C: Ok, baby......
Go Heavy!
Have you noticed Casey's "branded" anti-spam words?
It made me feel a little dirty to have to type "cashback" to submit my comment.
Ewww
No, I didn't notice any anti-spam words, because I don't post at IAFF anymore.
I did notice that I've been getting some spam lately; something that never happened before. Hm. Is someone selling email addresses?
@ Anon 1:51. I suggested that to him a while back under a different name (I think it was Mining Nuggets). I really did it just as a joke.
Joke's on me when I have to type in Sweet and winwin.
"I did notice that I've been getting some spam lately; something that never happened before. Hm. Is someone selling email addresses?"
oh yes he is, I even posted a comment on IAFF about it, he didn't deny it.
I recall Homey posted in November that condomhead was selling emails, and stopped posting on IAFF after my inbox was full of spam when I did. Rob Dawg made a comment about this too.
Did anyone start receiving a "I will teach you to be rich newsletter?" I did and the guy (Ramit) said I must have signed up on his website. Not.
Rob, the whole selling email addresses may be a good topic. Of course, Casey denies it.
Plugging away at "the next great deal"? I thought her name was galina!
Zing!
The haters/critics here contribute to my experience because they’re quick to point out the flaws/concerns. A little bit of risk assessment is a good thing. I definitely need that.
A little bit of risk assessment is a good thing? How about a lot of risk assessment is a good thing. I dare our boy wonder to say that to the banks when trying to get corporate credit.
Who said Galina got a divorce atty?
More likely a criminal atty, and she's talking to the authorities (something hubby should have done months ago).
Our little babushka succubus might be negotiating a plea bargain to keep herself out of prison. Her name is on the applications, which makes her an accessory (as Homey's posse has pointed out to her).
It's like watching Bonnie turn state's evidence on Clyde...
I just wonder how much of Casey's "family" is involved. I bet even his sister Brace-face has a few flips of her own. Wonder if she broke her arm on the trampoline. Homey probably knows the answer...
What strategy Casey? Fix-n-flip is no strategy if you didn't have a contigency in place for cost overruns.
What a fracking idiot. So has trouble with risk assessment but thought his plan/strategy was solid? One has to be able to assess risk in order to make good judgements. Not doing so means you are nothing more than the RE version of a gambler.
@ 2:22
babushka succubus
that is funny, thanks
We need to separate facts from speculation... I wasn't able to find any evidence that Aleksey and Anna Serin flipped any properties--just the purchase of their main home and a bunch of refinancing.
if seminarland is so bad, why did he go there two months ago?
Homey's full of shit. Always has been always will be. He doesn't know anything a google search won't turn up. Everything else he/she presents is pure b.s.
IMWO
@anon 4:01 (Nigel, I presume)
homey knows his stuff. If there is nothing to Res-Com, then L'il Casey should address his involvement in his blog.
\\\\Homey's full of shit. Always has been always will be.\\\\
Casey and Homey, sittin' in a tree, K I S S I N G
@anon 4:01
Well then, if you think he is full of shit why don't you man up and give us your name and we'll see how far up your ass he can go?
Well then, if you think [Homey] is full of shit why don't you man up and give us your name and we'll see how far up your ass he can go?
Cripes that's pucker factor 7 just thinking Da Homez might be crawlin' 'round in my personals.
@Anon 4:01 - You say Homey is full of shit but apparently he has more than a basic Google search.
Whats the matter, is your whittle buddy Casey feeling the heat? Is that you Casey? Must suck to be a fan, supporter...or you.
I judge that Homey is correct and you are now sentenced to forever being a clueless troll.
To all anonymous Trolls -
If you wish to defend your hero, fine but don't sit there and tell us to stop discussing FACTUAL things like Res-Com.
Saying it's BS when apparently it's not makes you the ass.
I'm pretty sure all the disbelievers are scared now to identify themselves. But as we all know Homey is not a side show. He will not just go after you for the sake of doing it. So to all you critics, just post your name up and call that bet and post your name up to prove everyone wrong. And make sure you post your residence too so that you can shove it in Homey's face. Hey throw in your work address too just to top it off. You'll see Homey don't play dat. Trust me.
@anon 4:01 ( Galina?)
You remind me of the Clinton's. Attack the attacker while never answering the questions put forth by the attacker. It appears ole Homey is right on track as usual, or you would not be so desperate to discredit the clown.
BTW, how is the weather in San Jose?
What is "res-com"?
From Looser Boy himself:
"Yes, execution of the deal is important and paying attention to details is important. I have a weakness with details and risk assessment. I see the opportunity in everything and overlook the flaws. I need to work on that or outsource that part of it out.
"That’s where I failed. I had pretty good strategy: fix-n-flip. However, I failed in the fixing part. The repairs took much longer then I thought and much more money. I got taken advantage of by contractors. I underestimated the repair bill on some of the houses and bought too high. I ran out of money and am now facing foreclosure."
And this just proves the point I was seeking to make in my 12:42pm post (Casey posted it before mine, but I didn't see it until just now): he doesn't understand the nature of his mistakes!!!
True, his piss-poor execution (namely his laziness) would probably have doomed his venture as a RE mogul regardless of the quality of his strategy, but his strategy was equally flawed. Barring a sudden resurgence of the 2003-05 bubble (by early 2006, the market had already shown signs of stagnating and by mid-2006 it was obvious that it was entering decline), there was no chance that his hair-brained scheme would yield any profits.
But his basic problem is that he wants to "outsource" himself out of his business plan entirely. Locating potential deals? Get the mailman to "bird-dog" for a modest fee. Minor repairs? Hire a contractor. Open the mail and keep track of basic finances? Hire an administrative assistant. Crunch the numbers and do a cost-benefit analysis on potential deals? Hire someone with an IQ above room temperature to worry about little things like that. Manage rentals? Hire a property manager.
It's one thing to delegate some stuff to professionals, but every successful entrepreneur that I've ever known has worked long, long hours doing really mundane things to make the business a success. Especially at the beginning. Not only does Casey not have the capacity to add anything of value to the venture, he doesn't even consider it necessary!
Until he adjusts his world view to account for reality, he's going to be a perpetual failure and a "looser."
-walt526
"Well then, if you think he is full of shit why don't you man up and give us your name and we'll see how far up your ass he can go?"
If homey were worth as much as you people think he is, he'd be able to tell you who I was and he'd have proof to back it up.
Bring it on homey, you fuckin' clown!
dude this quote from IAFF poster is funny, its in response to the 'i am getting the corp credit thingie' post:
"I wish this site were just a troll. However, it’s the PR arm of an ongoing criminal enterprise, run by a mentally-ill, addicted sociopath.
Somebody please stop this guy! "
why is nothing happening we are all yelling 'thief'!!??
@anon 6:27
Nigel,
STFU or I'll have Homey call you on your cell phone- 801-560-0967.
there was a visit from salt lake utah
at 6:19 pm, entered the kool aid page and left on this one. Stayed for 51 minutes, out of comcast
so yeah, looks like Nigel. we have to tread carefully though lest we awaken the sleeping giant that is nigel's pal, super secret accountant man.
Internet Judge for Haters of 'Haters' @ 4:42:
I posted anonymously regarding the lack of evidence of Casey's parents engaging in any prior RE flips because I used my Lexis account to pull the info, and I don't want any repercussions to come from that. I am not a troll.
This has been posted before...you really think they are just moving a lot? by the way, when you check a lot of those documents, you see Aleksey's wife is a a coconspirator. I think Homey is right, Casey did learn from his rents.
Party Name Party Type Document Title Book Page
SERIN ALEKSEY GRANTEE GRANT DEED 20020612 1375
SERIN ALEKSEY GRANTOR DEED OF TRUST 20020612 1376
SERIN ALEKSEY GRANTOR DEED OF TRUST 20020612 1377
SERIN ALEKSEY GRANTEE PARTIAL RELEASE 20020618 0379
SERIN ALEKSEY GRANTOR DEED OF TRUST 20030721 2083
SERIN ALEKSEY GRANTOR SUBSTITUTION TR 20031112 1539
SERIN ALEKSEY GRANTEE RECONVEYANCE 20031112 1540
SERIN ALEKSEY GRANTOR ASGT DEED OF TRUST 20040112 1556
SERIN ALEKSEY GRANTOR DEED OF TRUST 20040129 0395
SERIN ALEKSEY GRANTOR SUBORDINATION AGM 20040129 0396
SERIN ALEKSEY GRANTOR SUBSTITUTION TR 20040309 0830
SERIN ALEKSEY GRANTEE RECONVEYANCE 20040309 0831
SERIN ALEKSEY GRANTOR DEED OF TRUST 20041124 1017
SERIN ALEKSEY GRANTOR DEED OF TRUST 20041124 1018
SERIN ALEKSEY GRANTOR SUBSTITUTION TR 20041227 1372
SERIN ALEKSEY GRANTEE RECONVEYANCE 20041227 1372
SERIN ALEKSEY GRANTOR DEED OF TRUST 20051107 2106
SERIN ALEKSEY GRANTOR SUBSTITUTION TR 20051129 2746
SERIN ALEKSEY GRANTEE RECONVEYANCE 20051129 2746
SERIN ALEKSEY GRANTEE RECONVEYANCE 20051213 0151
Page: 1
link
http://www.erosi.saccounty.net/Inputs.asp
last name serin, decade 2000
At IAFF Nigel wrote
My mortgage boss has been following your story and recently wrote a post on my blog on how he advises people like you who want to become real estate investors.
Dang Nigel do you ever stop trying to get people to your shitty little blog? Like anyone would actually click your link besides ...well..anybody.
My theory on Anonymous 4:01 is that it must be a joke. In My Worthless Opinion....
Nigel isn't very bright. He thinks people care about what he has to say.
Someone seems to be onto Homey's ass and I'm reel pisst 'bout it.
ONCE AGAIN, I'D LIKE TO ADD THAT THE ENTIRE BUSH ADMIN CAN SHOVE IT UP THEIR CUNT ASS, MOFO's (Cheney in particular).
Love,
Akubicacia
Legion, thanks for the link. I looked up myself and my husband, we are in there over a dozen times each and all we have done is refinance twice over the last decade. No sales or purchases.... just a dizzying number of documents recorded. Not sure it's evidence of anything, last time I checked we were both fairly risk averse and not engaged in flipping anything other than pancakes.
There seems to be a bandwidth issue around her - unless it is my firewall. I couldn't even flip a pancake unless it was microwaved. Cooking is too complicated and I always tend to forget what's burning. Anyway, Greenland sounds nice.
Once again, I'm reelz fuckin mad around here. KC and G are a piece of work...but look further and there seem to be so many levels of shit around here I'd sho like to be beemed up to another planet.
SHEET.
One thing I always liked about the typical Japanese Buddha is that he had all of these nodules on his head representing ongoing bird shit.
This week, on the Young and the Useless....
[We find Galina getting out of the teen queen Jetta, reaching into the back seat to extract several shopping bags. She's humming 'Watcha' Gonna Do Wid All Dat Junk' as she totters to the front door, having a bit of trouble opening the front door because of her bags.
She slides the key into the lock, and pushes her way into the residence, depositing her bags by the door, and removing her coat. She pauses; Casey's voice can be heard, very quiet, in another room. His tone is soft, and gentle, he chuckles flirtaciously.
Galina puts her keys onto the little table and tiptoes to the kitchen, where Casey is on the phone, looking away from her. He's leaning against the counter; a little smile on his lips.]
Casey: "Oh, no, you don't mean that..." he says, his cheeks flushing. "You're just being nice. Awww, that's so sweet" Casey giggles like a smitten schoolgirl, and then sighs. "I think you're beautiful too."
[Galina's eyes widen, and she hides herself behind the half wall, still listening.]
Casey: "Really? Yeah, me too. When can we meet? I've missed you so much. I really need to be with you." He pauses, and then sighs. "Okay... soon then. I love you too. Bye sweetie." [He hangs up and leaves the kitchen, passing by Galina without seeing her. He disappears into the office--she hears the telltale sound of the blue ball being sat on.
Galina enters the kitchen, and picks up the phone; and hits redial, placing the receiver to her ear. It rings once... twice, and finally, someone picks up.]
Nigel [after looking at the caller ID]: "Hi, sweetie. You just couldn't wait for me to call you huh?"
[Fade with dramatic music--camera focused on Galina's weeping eyes]
You're good, reelz good Stephanie;).
Happy Birthday again!
Damn Steph, you so had me in the room. Awesome!
...she hears the telltale sound of the blue ball being sat on.
Hilarious!
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