Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Guess the "Wishing Price"

A neighborhood house is actually on the market. For the last decade or so real estate clerks haven't bothered to put up signs as they sold too quickly and usually to friends or in-house private clients. This one has not only been on the market for a while but has its own website.
The stonework is typical of the early 60s high quality construction of the area. When I had my roof redone last year the nail guns couldn't penatrate the roof joists.
The wicker and other designer furniture probably doesn't come with the house at list price. Please submit supplemental bids with your offer.

Okay, guess the wishing price. Some hints; 1/3rd acre, 45yo, 2700sf, on a golf course. I'll post the links later today.

48 comments:

Anonymous said...

$8000000. Throw in the wicker and I'll make it $8000010.

-jbjbj

Anonymous said...

Not on the water, so knock off a cool $1MM, wicker not included, knock off another $25.

I'd say....$1.225MM.

I would not pay that, I would laugh if they got it (they cry), but would not be surprized.

Anonymous said...

Just checked out the Virtual Tour - OMG - it is so dated, I would consider it a cosmetic fixer.

Love all that cement.

Anonymous said...

That was supposed to be 800k, not 8MM. Sorry, forgot my glasses.

Rob Dawg said...

Anon 9:44;
You weren't supposed to peek. This time warp looks almost the same as my house looked when I bought from the bank in 1995.

Anonymous said...

Ok.. Seeing that it is in loony Ca, I'm guessing $280 per sq. ft. + $750,000.

What do I win?

Bill in NC said...

1995?

Looks like my house in 1985.

Anonymous said...

$1.15MM

Anonymous said...

955K. How many errant golf balls do you think get thrown in with the deal?

Anonymous said...

Since you said wishing price...1.5 million, someone's got to fund their retirement now that they have blown thru all their income all these years.

Anonymous said...

my guess, 1.3m

Anonymous said...

Here....it would be about $150k if on a 1 acre lot. I don't see an address or state so...dunno.

Anonymous said...

okay. you have all overbid. remember, we want the *actual* value of the house. roddy, erase the bids please.

go lower.

Anonymous said...

Rob Dawg,

Do you really live in Loony, CA? Is that Moorpark-adjacent?

Anonymous said...

Well, Bob Barker,

If we want the REAL value, I'd have to go with Anon @10:20.

$150,001.

OkieLawyer said...

Rob Dawg:

I'm sure you have already seen this. But I thought I would pass it along, just in case.

Anonymous said...

@Okie just read the snippet


"It's been hard for sellers to comprehend, and I'm usually the bearer of bad news," said Mike Wagner, a real estate broker who works in Loudon. "The news is: Your home is worth $100,000 less than it was a year and a half ago."



If I was a recent buyer I would tell the real estate agent
"It's been hard for agents to comprehend, and I'm usually the bearer of bad news, but right now, you just lost your testicles..."

"What?"

Snip

Anonymous said...

Asking price: $935K

Likely fair market value price: $825K

Offer made by Casey: $995K

Cash back at closing, not reported to lender: $60K

Value to Casey: Priceless.

Sweet!

Anonymous said...

@ TfMBA

ROFLMAO!

Anonymous said...

You know.... TfMBA's idea might actually make a funny TV show. A sitcom rather than a reality show. CS moves in next door to RobDawg (buying the house that we see here) and each week he has a new harebrained idea for a sweet deal. By the end of each program, the deal falls apart, CS is further in debt and RobDawg becomes eager to sell his own place but the overall dropping prices are discouraging prospective buyers.

Hey, if "My Mother the Car" could be a TV show....


Northern Renter

PS Frigging cold up here this week.

Anonymous said...

Thanks.

It seems odd to me that most people on IAFF concentrate on Casey's "attention lapses" (not opening his mail, not getting insurance, not following up, not getting much done) and his "bizarre plans" (house raffle, "corporate thingy," buying apartment complexes) and NOT on one of the most glaringly obvious mistakes he made:

HE PAID TOO MUCH.

He paid more than the (probably inflated) appraisals said the properties were worth (possibly in collusion, for kickbacks, but I can't prove that so it's just a speculation).

Whatever he learned in his $30-40K of "education," he didn't learn to bargain and knock down the price. I think all he got out of his many seminars were the three-ring binders.

He even seems to have been conned by other seminar junkies. He refers in his Jan-June blog, the one discussed here a few days ago, about how he learned about some of his "sweet deals" from what he calls "wholesalers."

(A term which I find really strange...I've heard of wholesaling commodities, and I know about real estate agents, etc., but what is a "wholesaler" of houses?)_

He overpaid for his properties. This was apparent from the git-go.

Did he know this? Or was the Casey Distortion Field so strong that he thought he was buying at a "sweet" price?

And, speculating, there is always the chance that he deliberately overpaid and took cash back with the deliberate intent of squirreling the money away someplace and stiffing the lenders.

(I tend to doubt this, though, as the relatively hard times he's had recently would've caused him to tap into the squirreled-away money. No evidence he's doing this, not with the desperate loans he's been getting lately.)

--Tim

Anonymous said...

From commments made in his "other" blog Casey does not seem to care about the purchase price. He purchased the TX property just to impress the "wholesaler" (and to get cash back of course).

Anonymous said...

Casey's story as the basis for a sitcom...

Some of the older people here may remember "The Phil Silvers Show," often just called "Sgt. Bilko." This had a similar theme, where Bilko, who ran the motor pool on some Army base, was pulling some kind of scam. Which usually backfired on Bilko....

(And at around the same time, late 50s, was "The Life of Reilly," which had a similar theme about a slacker.)

"The Rockford Files," circa the mid-70s, often had con games and gullible fools as a theme. One of the characters, Angel, was always dreaming up some new get rich quick scheme.

And currently on t.v., "My Name is Earl" has some similar themes. (I suggested "My Name is Casey" on IAFF a few months back.)

I think the time may be ripe for a new show focusing on the Gen Y crowd, doing for them what "Friends" did for the Gen X cohort. I could speculate about what some of the themes might be, but when I last did so, some Gen Y folks here claimed I was hatin' on them.

--Tim

Anonymous said...

In this case a "wholesaler" is a guywho goes out and finds properties and ties them up with a option to purchase contract gets an ARV(after repaired value) appraisal done, then assigns the option contract to somebody for a fee.

So basically I find a house in need of repair, pay the owner $500 for a 60 day option to purchase at 100k. then get what is likely a bogus appraisal done saying it will be worth 170k after it has been rehabbed. Then I assign the contract over to you for 10k. You figure you have 60k to work with so its still a good deal...i made 10k for next to no work. These guys prey on the seminar idiots who can't figure their own repair values and finished home valuations.

Rob Dawg said...

Backstage said...
Rob Dawg, Do you really live in Loony, CA? Is that Moorpark-adjacent?

Oh my, yes. To both. I can see Moorpark from here to the east. I can also see the "Two Trees" in Ventura to the west. I "got in" before things went real bad. 1983 and an engineering degree was a hot ticket at the time. I can't imagine what the lure is today.

Anonymous said...

then again the next several seasons of Casey's show will resemble "Oz". (get HBO people).

Rob Dawg said...

OkieLawyer said...
Rob Dawg, I'm sure you have already seen this. But I thought I would pass it along, just in case.

Thanks for the link. You saw it first but it's since become a matter of discussion in other places. Might as well fight it out it here.

The bottom line is that reporters are core urbanites and the assertion that the exurbs will suffer disproportionately is just their seeking personal opinion validation. The places that are falling first/more are generally those places that saw the most and more expensive growth. In this cycle that's the urban fringes. Even there the truth is that prices are merely giving back 1/3rd of last years rises. If you closed you eyes in Aug 2004 and just opened them and asked "How's the housing market?" The answer would be "Terrible down 8% in Ventura County, down 3% in the Antelope Valley and Inland Empire, flat pretty much everywhere else in the LA conurbation." Of course this "terrible market" over that same period means your $500k Aug 2004 house is now worth $600k because of this "terrible market."

But back to the Ex/Cenurb eternal battle for the soul of America. This is all Kunstler retread. There really are no enumerable criteria where the exurbs exhibit any negative characteristics. The Kunstlers of the world just ignore the data and repeat the lies.

Anonymous said...

@ TfMBA (again!)

"(A term which I find really strange...I've heard of wholesaling commodities, and I know about real estate agents, etc., but what is a "wholesaler" of houses?)"

I posted on this on one of our FFF ill-managed website a while ago. CS often refers to buying @ "wholesale" and reselling @ "retail". The fact of the matter is that his purchases determined the market for the property and he fails to understand that. It's not like he got a discount for having his super-duper-extra-special wholesaler card he found in an effing crackerjack box.

His whole strategy (I feel dirty saying CS had one!) was to ADD VALUE to resell at a higher price. It could have been cosmetic improvements or structural upgrades but the fact of the matter is Casey didn't add jacksh!t to any of his properties, hence the reason he was unable to move any of them at such ridiculously high levels.


Sorry, Rant Off.

Anonymous said...

OK, Rob Dawg,

No price guesses in over two hours.

Give it up. How much.

Rob Dawg said...

The answer is at:

http://www.1674ramona.com/

$1,298,500

Honest though, this place looks like my house so much it is scary. We had similar deep shag gold carpet and we've still got the original windows. Notice no pictures of the kitchen. I can see it in my mind. Shudder, flashbacks.

Anonymous said...

FIVE HUNDRED FREAKIN TWENTY A SQUARE FOOT?!!!

Are there naked chicks with it or gold bars buried in the backyard?

Anonymous said...

"The answer is at:

http://www.1674ramona.com/

$1,298,500"


I am very disappointed that the guess I basically pulled out of my ass (1.3m)was correct.

I based it on the ridiculous pricing I see on those Cali flipper diaster reality shows.

Rob Dawg said...

Congrats to "LOL." Too bad I'm not "Jim the Realtor" at the highly recommended bubbleinfo.com who gave away Padres tickets for his contest.

This is a really nice neighborhood and the price per square foot does not fully reflect the value. Still my similar house with the same size but twice the land is in zillow as losing $10,000 per week since Oct '06.

The "wishing price" is what it could have fetched 6 months ago.

Anonymous said...

The picture of the realtor is how I picture Casey looking in 80 years.

segfault said...

Hideous floral-print wallpaper in a lot of the rooms... Carpet looks more like brown/tan cut-loop instead of shag, but maybe I need LASIK afterall.

I'd live there, if the price were right, but would want to remodel ASAP... In my rural area, it would probably be worth about 1/7 the price it is listed at on the website.

Anonymous said...

Casey has managed to figure out another way to drive traffic. One reader is claiming casey gave someone a Dirty Sanchez?

Anonymous said...

So Rob Dawg, do you think that price includes 30k for a new kitchen, 10k to remove wallpaper, 6k for new flooring, and I don't even want to think about the bathrooms...

Rob Dawg said...

segfault says...
I'd live there, if the price were right, but would want to remodel ASAP... In my rural area, it would probably be worth about 1/7 the price it is listed at on the website.

I do lie "there" and for almost exactly 1/7th the price shown and I did immediately remodel. Now you can't pry me out.

jbjbj said...

$30k for a freakin' kitchen?!? 'Round these parts $30k is the design fee or maybe the appliances only. As to wallpaper. Don't get me started. The lowest excavation in one of our rooms revealed an Indian blanket pattern in reds and yellows molecularly bonded to the plaster. Vigorous sanding roughed it up enough to allow a primer coat to adhere before painting.

We'll revisit this property as it progresses.

Anonymous said...

I assume the value is more in the land here. And the lot is a bit larger than the OP says. For what it's worth 22370 sf is a bit over 1/2 acre.

Anonymous said...

I had to quit firefox just to get away from the music.

Rob Dawg said...

Anon 2:42,
Yes, one of the few acceptable school districts saves the potential occupant $8k/yr in tuition per child for one thing. The view is to die for:
http://users.adelphia.net/~techscan/Backyard3.jpg
There's little crime, no HOA, no Mello-Roos, few urban restrictions, etc.

backstage,
At least they provide a music off button. I must have pulled a "Casey" and "forgot" to mention it.

Anonymous said...

Rob -

sorry about peaking -- what can I say, I've been too influenced by Casey......

Anonymous said...

The little white balls justify the price.

Rob Dawg said...

The little white balls justify the price.

We all got buckets. Seriously, there are so many "wild" golf balls we rarely bother to bend over and pick them up.

Anonymous said...

Rob-

I'll take all the Titliest ProV1's you can muster. Cookies and/or Jamba juice can be negotiated.

I promise I won't lob them into RK's pool.

-jbjbj

Anonymous said...

There's little crime, no HOA, no Mello-Roos, few urban restrictions, etc.

But I thought you said this was Southern California. Sounds more like Iowa, except for the view. Are you SURE you live in California? Or have a local government bodies lost track of you somehow? ;-)

Rob Dawg said...

The neighborhood was built in the early 60s when California was a great place. We are surrounded by golf courses and farmland and open space. We have a small K-8 single campus school district where the principal and district superintendent address you by first name. Yes, a quiet forgotten corner of olde California. 45 miles almost directly west of downtown Los Angeles.

Anonymous said...

Man, I just wrote a piece about your part of the Camarillo, the eucalyptus trees along a nearby stretch of 101, my parents move to Newbury Park, up the grade from you, their view of Mount Boney in the distance....

Then I clicked on the wrong button on Blogger and it took me to Google Accounts. Getting back to this "Leave your comment," my entry was gone.

This blog world is a throwback to pre-Usenet days.

--Tim