Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Freefallin'
How about those NAR first cut numbers 6.12m resales and 8.4% less than the previous month. Anyone ready to call a bottom?
Anon, we have fun but Casey isn't everything. He's just the cowcatcher on the trainwreck. The new resale numbers mean $3.6 billion fewer in agent comissions alone. Then imagine the problems mortgage originators are having.
The decline in housing still has a way to go; here in the San Francisco bay area the number of sales has gone down, but prices have been relatively stable, although not rising. There's a few other "protected" areas in the country and until they're hit a little harder we won't be at the bottom.
BTW, does anyone know how Zillow comes up with it's evaluations? Our house is now listed at $1.3 Million, up $100,000 in a month. That's clearly not based on reality in this declining market. A more realistic evaluation would be around $1 Million.
Reading between the lines of the NAR president for Michigan(see below). average home prices are only down .3% compared to a year ago. Ok then throw in the money that sellers are giving at signing(downpayments and/or closing costs for the buyer). I'd say the home prices are down more along the lines of at a minimum 5% if you include these costs.
NAR President Pat Vredevoogd Combs, from Grand Rapids, Mich., and vice president of Coldwell Banker-AJS-Schmidt, said market conditions are clearly favoring buyers. "It's a good time to buy, in part, because home buyers are not pressured to make quick decisions," Combs said. "We are in a window of low interest rates with a plentiful supply homes on the market and flat prices in most areas. First-time buyers now have more power to negotiate with sellers for help on downpayment or closing costs."
Dude, the usual pattern from NAR and bad news is three reporting periods. Calculatedrisk keeps a running track of revisions. I think there has been 1 or at most 2 upward revisions in the last year (33 datums).
I think Snowflake is closer to hitting bottom than most RE markets. In many places median home prices are too danged high for people of modest means to afford (I'm not talking about fliptards or the super poor here, just the median income family)
The good news for most of the realtor-types is that most of them won't be found at the bottom of a murky cess--er, swimming pool and have to worry that a bunch of Uzbekis/Russians are out to get them.
However, this is masking improved fundamentals in the housing market, with lower mortgage interest rates and motivated sellers.
We get VI's (as we call them here in the UK = Vested Interest) coming out with stuff like this. Does "motivated sellers" mean "sellers behind with their mortgages and facing foreclosure"? When did your mortgage rates fall? I thought there was a credit tightening going on.
TVRYB, I have to disagree. With very few exceptions the real estate types have been the biggest drinkers of their own kool-aid. They all are livin' large paycheck to paycheck leveraged all out in real estate. They are going to crash sooner and harder than us regular types.
I don't know if it would sufficiently affect the "average" price, but if real-estate transactions of the price-no-object rich (as defined by some arbitrary number) are removed from the picture, how would things add up? Our "two economies" are no secret. For example, compare the recent retail sales of WalMart and Tiffanys. Can a similar comparison be made among housing in the US? Is it statistically significant? I am idly curious.
@ casey fannnn I can't imagine it's any different the world over. You need to consider the regional or area differences and there will always be areas that are popular with the ultra-rich. They are almost a separate economy but how you remove them from the figures is another matter, and most likely near impossible.
EVERYTHING IS FINE. THIS IS JUST A BLIP ON THE RADAR AND REAL ESTATE MARKETS AND MORTGAGE BUSINESSES WILL BE PICKING UP SHORTLY. I'M THE AWARD-WINNING BLOGGER HERE, NOT ROBERT COTE. ROBERT HAS NEVER WON A SINGLE 3RD PLACE AWARD AT A BLOG CARNIVAL WITH SIX PARTICIPANTS.
EVERYONE, PLEASE CHECK OUT MY LATEST POOL CLEANERS AVOIDERS SITE WHERE I GIVE VALUABLE ADVICE ON HOW TO KEEP YOUR POOL FROM GETTING DIRTY BY HAVING IT INDOORS. ALSO SOME VALUABLE ADVICE ABOUT KOI, WHICH ARE FISH. FIRST FIVE VISITORS WIN AN ALL EXPENSES PAID BLOGCATION IN SALT LAKE CITY.
It's over.I am a self proclaimed prophet sent from the heavens to tell all you peons on this blog to buy more real estate now.This is the bottom for sure.
Casey is looking for sweet deals around sacramento as we speak.He is also looking for a partner to service his wife while he is traveling,any takers?
The low end getting hammered first holds up the median numbers. I've long held the theory that the lower quality area can "ride the coattails" of nearby better areas on the way up but they are the first to reverse when a decline starts. Is that the same in the US?
The word on the street is that only perfect properties are selling, imperfect houses don't sell at ny price. The perfect properties re only selling at 2004 prices but that's still pretty good for a lot of people.
That's another effect that you notice. On the way up people will forgive a few faults just to buy anything. On the way down any faults and at best you get really low-ball offers.
On a much more important point, what does Swabalama-ding-dong think?
And why after all the success in pins was he not able to parlay that into continuing success?
Oh and another thing - in his latest SLC drivel about home tiling or whatever, he seems to have taken some of R-boys comments from another thread, tweaked them a bit and embedded them into his story as his own. To note from the swab:
1. It's not really a project without an injury. 2. It's not really a project without a trip to the hardware store, usually several. 3. It's not really a project unless something goes wrong, because it always does.
I distinctly remember R-boy commenting on DHC regarding his own fence project and how it's not a project with an injury and several trips to Home Depot.
One nice thing about this market is that a lot of the weak agents are gonna get tossed out. We just lost another one the other day, bitching and whining about how she couldn't get a sale. I take her leads and pop two deals in one week! Lots of lazy meat in this business ripe for the buzzards. Of course, she also had a new Mercedes. WTF is it with noobs in this business that they HAVE to go out and but a Mercedes and a Mont Blanc pen right off the first check?? I just don't get it! I drive a clean 2000 Toyota 4-Runner and use a Bic that some client gave me a year ago that just won't die. Nope, business has been very good to me so far. Now I did talk with a few agents in the Merced area last week and those fools are gonna be eating Top Ramen for years..
I've noticed Zillow is pretty hit or miss. I check it now and then with different kinds of houses and it is on about half the time. It worked pretty well when everything was going up but now they have to really stay on top of the algorithm due to changing market conditions.
Sort of off-topic, I just checked the Zillow for Muncy Drive and note that it uses the Google Earth map as the background and, yes, there's a dark green patch where there should be a pool. The comp still shows $340k by the way.
Today I noticed for the first time that the NAR sponsored the traffic reports on KQED (NPR in SF). Have I been oblivious? Or did they just start today or this week? Is it coincidence.
Driving around Riverside County's Lake Elsinore, realtor Abdul Syed counts about 40 lots with brown grass in the 1,200- home Tuscany Hills subdivision. Owners stop watering their lawns when they are about to lose their homes, he said.
So that's how to spot a foreclosure. That or they stop maintaining their pool. Back onto Google Earth then.....
I have pulled cash out of all my Utah properties, and am buying houses in the OC right now. When NEWC.PK emerges from bankruptcy, all the new jobs they create are going to make prices go to the moon.
You all should read the article "It's different this time" on my award winning blogspot.
http://www.slcrealestate.blogspot.com/
If Rob Dawg sobered up for just long enough to understand my article, he would agree that housing is going to the moon. It is different this time, I keep telling you. Why is it nobody understands?
Owners stop watering their lawns when they are about to lose their homes, he said.
So that's how to spot a foreclosure.
They are little late for that insight: http://exurbannation.blogspot.com/2006/04/real-mfer.html
I will circle overhead watching the lemmings. I’ll visit the County Recorders Office and Assesors Office making sure there aren’t any liens or tax arears. I’ll fly over the houses, looking for garage conversions and cable disconnections and brown lawns. I’ll look for the signs of “going out in style,” the New Tundra and LS450 in the driveway, moving vans, Garage Sales, FSBO ads. And every week I’ll circle down and land on the arm of a banker and wisper in his ear. He’ll reward me with a chunk of flesh from the latest kill. It’ll get so I’m famous. The neighbors will see me and call out in appreciation “Hey! MF! (Mortgage Falcon)” and I’ll continue my patrol, keeping the worlds financial system safe for all mankind.
The market's hosed for the rest of 2007. In 2008 some areas may start to recover, depending on how hard they were hit by the sub-prime fiasco and the state of the local economy.
Mainly @ Tony Soprano I've been following things over here (mainly Casey) and recall someone saying that there were 1000's more real estate agents licensed in the last, say, 5 years all trying to get in on the action. I can't remember whether that was in a specific state (poss FL) but I think it was. Maybe he can look up the figures, if he doesn't already know them, and post them on here for us.
Zillow works fine if you use it to estimate what a home may have sold for in the past 6-12 months based on sales of comparable properties. Useful information, but its asking to much of a relatively simple statistical model to project CURRENT market prices. Also, the property values assume "standard" utility values for things like property condition and less tangible things that add or subtract for a property's value, like a view.
Going by YTD median prices for homes sold, Elk Grove property values have fallen about 15% already and volume has fallen over 20%. That's not accounting for any funny business with cash-back or other incentives. Interestingly enough, the number of listings in the areas that we're interested in are actually down. Although anecdotally from co-workers and other people that we know in this area, it seems to me that there are A LOT of unhappy homeowners who want to sell but are upside-down on their mortgages and for the time being, can still afford the payments. For every home on the market, it seems like there are 2 or 3 households that want out. As the foreclosures pile up and we go through another few waves of ARMs resetting, a 30-50% drop in values for 2005 highs will be inevitable, IMHO. Once people come around to the idea that this isn't a brief hiccup in the market but instead a new reality, there will be a mad-rush to list, essentially creating a race to the bottom. Once that force takes effect, we'll see the really dramatic and painful drops in residential property that the economic fundamentals of the area demand.
How about those NAR first cut numbers 6.12m resales and 8.4% less than the previous month. Anyone ready to call a bottom?
49 comments:
First or Murst. But then I've been up for hours.
First things first, my first first! Yaaa!
Damn you Wankspittle
Anyone ready to call a bottom?
If you are referring to Casey, not yet. Close, but no cigar.
Ohhhh kirk, so close but I swear there's a cadre of firstitarians out there that must hover over their refresh button.
Sorry Kirk, it was just timing. Anyway Rob, you got a link to these figures, all I can find is from days ago, nothing recent.
I was hanging out myself but just missed it.
WE ARE....
MURSHALL!
WE ARE....
MURSHALL!
FEAR ME!
How'd you know? I have to let the loosers get a FIRST here and there, otherwise, they'll loose heart.
Anytime I want...remember that you loosers....anytime I choose to be FIRST, it's mine.
I don't have a fixation with FIRST. No problem at all, move along, nothing to see.
Anon, we have fun but Casey isn't everything. He's just the cowcatcher on the trainwreck. The new resale numbers mean $3.6 billion fewer in agent comissions alone. Then imagine the problems mortgage originators are having.
No worries Arthur, I'll get you next time.
The decline in housing still has a way to go; here in the San Francisco bay area the number of sales has gone down, but prices have been relatively stable, although not rising. There's a few other "protected" areas in the country and until they're hit a little harder we won't be at the bottom.
BTW, does anyone know how Zillow comes up with it's evaluations? Our house is now listed at $1.3 Million, up $100,000 in a month. That's clearly not based on reality in this declining market. A more realistic evaluation would be around $1 Million.
I've found a .pdf now, is this it?
http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/files/EHSreport.pdf/$FILE/EHSreport.pdf
Prices are back to where they were a year ago but volumes are down 11% or 13% if you don't fiddle, I mean seasonally adjust.
Arthur,
here is a link
http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/news_press_release,93873.shtml
Reading between the lines of the NAR president for Michigan(see below). average home prices are only down .3% compared to a year ago. Ok then throw in the money that sellers are giving at signing(downpayments and/or closing costs for the buyer). I'd say the home prices are down more along the lines of at a minimum 5% if you include these costs.
NAR President Pat Vredevoogd Combs, from Grand Rapids, Mich., and vice president of Coldwell Banker-AJS-Schmidt, said market conditions are clearly favoring buyers. "It's a good time to buy, in part, because home buyers are not pressured to make quick decisions," Combs said. "We are in a window of low interest rates with a plentiful supply homes on the market and flat prices in most areas. First-time buyers now have more power to negotiate with sellers for help on downpayment or closing costs."
OK....
All you college educated Haterz(tm), here's your homework (teehee) assignment. FIRST to post the answer wins a prize.
Numbers are released
Numbers get "fiddled"
How long before we get an accurate monthly figure?
"Reading between the lines of the NAR president for Michigan(see below). average home prices are only down .3% compared to a year ago."
What he fails to mention is that RE has been in the toilet here in MI for a long time already. It's been the bottom here for a while now.....
Dude,
the usual pattern from NAR and bad news is three reporting periods. Calculatedrisk keeps a running track of revisions. I think there has been 1 or at most 2 upward revisions in the last year (33 datums).
I think Snowflake is closer to hitting bottom than most RE markets. In many places median home prices are too danged high for people of modest means to afford (I'm not talking about fliptards or the super poor here, just the median income family)
The good news for most of the realtor-types is that most of them won't be found at the bottom of a murky cess--er, swimming pool and have to worry that a bunch of Uzbekis/Russians are out to get them.
However, this is masking improved fundamentals in the housing market, with lower mortgage interest rates and motivated sellers.
We get VI's (as we call them here in the UK = Vested Interest) coming out with stuff like this. Does "motivated sellers" mean "sellers behind with their mortgages and facing foreclosure"? When did your mortgage rates fall? I thought there was a credit tightening going on.
TVRYB,
I have to disagree. With very few exceptions the real estate types have been the biggest drinkers of their own kool-aid. They all are livin' large paycheck to paycheck leveraged all out in real estate. They are going to crash sooner and harder than us regular types.
this looks legit. the account was opened October 2006.
http://www.myebid.com/cgi-bin/auction/view?cmd=view&listingID=3911
I don't know if it would sufficiently affect the "average" price, but if real-estate transactions of the price-no-object rich (as defined by some arbitrary number) are removed from the picture, how would things add up? Our "two economies" are no secret. For example, compare the recent retail sales of WalMart and Tiffanys. Can a similar comparison be made among housing in the US? Is it statistically significant? I am idly curious.
BUT HOUSING NEVER GOES DOWN
HOW WILL I PAY FOR THE 42 INCH PLASMA IN THE BACK OF MY HUMMER?
@ casey fannnn
I can't imagine it's any different the world over. You need to consider the regional or area differences and there will always be areas that are popular with the ultra-rich. They are almost a separate economy but how you remove them from the figures is another matter, and most likely near impossible.
The actual street address for those who bought in 2005.....NSFW
HERE
The low end getting hammered first holds up the median numbers. The OFHEO and Case/Shiller numbers will be more telling.
EVERYTHING IS FINE. THIS IS JUST A BLIP ON THE RADAR AND REAL ESTATE MARKETS AND MORTGAGE BUSINESSES WILL BE PICKING UP SHORTLY. I'M THE AWARD-WINNING BLOGGER HERE, NOT ROBERT COTE. ROBERT HAS NEVER WON A SINGLE 3RD PLACE AWARD AT A BLOG CARNIVAL WITH SIX PARTICIPANTS.
EVERYONE, PLEASE CHECK OUT MY LATEST POOL CLEANERS AVOIDERS SITE WHERE I GIVE VALUABLE ADVICE ON HOW TO KEEP YOUR POOL FROM GETTING DIRTY BY HAVING IT INDOORS. ALSO SOME VALUABLE ADVICE ABOUT KOI, WHICH ARE FISH. FIRST FIVE VISITORS WIN AN ALL EXPENSES PAID BLOGCATION IN SALT LAKE CITY.
It's over.I am a self proclaimed prophet sent from the heavens to tell all you peons on this blog to buy more real estate now.This is the bottom for sure.
Casey is looking for sweet deals around sacramento as we speak.He is also looking for a partner to service his wife while he is traveling,any takers?
The low end getting hammered first holds up the median numbers.
I've long held the theory that the lower quality area can "ride the coattails" of nearby better areas on the way up but they are the first to reverse when a decline starts. Is that the same in the US?
He is also looking for a partner to service his wife while he is traveling,any takers?
What sort of money do you think I've got?
The word on the street is that only perfect properties are selling, imperfect houses don't sell at ny price. The perfect properties re only selling at 2004 prices but that's still pretty good for a lot of people.
Zillow is run by RE tools. They're saying that properties in my area are still increasing in value.
That's another effect that you notice. On the way up people will forgive a few faults just to buy anything. On the way down any faults and at best you get really low-ball offers.
On a much more important point, what does Swabalama-ding-dong think?
And why after all the success in pins was he not able to parlay that into continuing success?
Oh and another thing - in his latest SLC drivel about home tiling or whatever, he seems to have taken some of R-boys comments from another thread, tweaked them a bit and embedded them into his story as his own. To note from the swab:
1. It's not really a project without an injury.
2. It's not really a project without a trip to the hardware store, usually several.
3. It's not really a project unless something goes wrong, because it always does.
I distinctly remember R-boy commenting on DHC regarding his own fence project and how it's not a project with an injury and several trips to Home Depot.
Par for the course or am I wrong?
One nice thing about this market is that a lot of the weak agents are gonna get tossed out. We just lost another one the other day, bitching and whining about how she couldn't get a sale. I take her leads and pop two deals in one week! Lots of lazy meat in this business ripe for the buzzards. Of course, she also had a new Mercedes. WTF is it with noobs in this business that they HAVE to go out and but a Mercedes and a Mont Blanc pen right off the first check?? I just don't get it! I drive a clean 2000 Toyota 4-Runner and use a Bic that some client gave me a year ago that just won't die. Nope, business has been very good to me so far. Now I did talk with a few agents in the Merced area last week and those fools are gonna be eating Top Ramen for years..
Meant to say 'without' there at the bottom.
I thought Casey was on the "bottom" (position, that is). And nigel has always been on bottom (feeder, that is).
I've noticed Zillow is pretty hit or miss. I check it now and then with different kinds of houses and it is on about half the time. It worked pretty well when everything was going up but now they have to really stay on top of the algorithm due to changing market conditions.
hmm, yeah, I did comment that.
I should get royalties, in olympic pins
My bad, Nigel did say that originally. My apologies to the Swab. He has paraphrased, deleted, and linked so much I messed that one up.
Sort of off-topic, I just checked the Zillow for Muncy Drive and note that it uses the Google Earth map as the background and, yes, there's a dark green patch where there should be a pool. The comp still shows $340k by the way.
Check this one out...
"Subprime Bondholders May Lose $75 Billion From Slump"
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=
20601087&sid=aq3flDbwBCbk&refer=home
Today I noticed for the first time that the NAR sponsored the traffic reports on KQED (NPR in SF). Have I been oblivious? Or did they just start today or this week? Is it coincidence.
@ anon 8:34
Driving around Riverside County's Lake Elsinore, realtor Abdul Syed counts about 40 lots with brown grass in the 1,200- home Tuscany Hills subdivision. Owners stop watering their lawns when they are about to lose their homes, he said.
So that's how to spot a foreclosure. That or they stop maintaining their pool. Back onto Google Earth then.....
I have pulled cash out of all my Utah properties, and am buying houses in the OC right now. When NEWC.PK emerges from bankruptcy, all the new jobs they create are going to make prices go to the moon.
You all should read the article "It's different this time" on my award winning blogspot.
http://www.slcrealestate.blogspot.com/
If Rob Dawg sobered up for just long enough to understand my article, he would agree that housing is going to the moon. It is different this time, I keep telling you. Why is it nobody understands?
Thirst.
Owners stop watering their lawns when they are about to lose their homes, he said.
So that's how to spot a foreclosure.
They are little late for that insight:
http://exurbannation.blogspot.com/2006/04/real-mfer.html
I will circle overhead watching the lemmings. I’ll visit the County Recorders Office and Assesors Office making sure there aren’t any liens or tax arears. I’ll fly over the houses, looking for garage conversions and cable disconnections and brown lawns. I’ll look for the signs of “going out in style,” the New Tundra and LS450 in the driveway, moving vans, Garage Sales, FSBO ads. And every week I’ll circle down and land on the arm of a banker and wisper in his ear. He’ll reward me with a chunk of flesh from the latest kill. It’ll get so I’m famous. The neighbors will see me and call out in appreciation “Hey! MF! (Mortgage Falcon)” and I’ll continue my patrol, keeping the worlds financial system safe for all mankind.
The market's hosed for the rest of 2007. In 2008 some areas may start to recover, depending on how hard they were hit by the sub-prime fiasco and the state of the local economy.
Mainly @ Tony Soprano
I've been following things over here (mainly Casey) and recall someone saying that there were 1000's more real estate agents licensed in the last, say, 5 years all trying to get in on the action. I can't remember whether that was in a specific state (poss FL) but I think it was. Maybe he can look up the figures, if he doesn't already know them, and post them on here for us.
Zillow works fine if you use it to estimate what a home may have sold for in the past 6-12 months based on sales of comparable properties. Useful information, but its asking to much of a relatively simple statistical model to project CURRENT market prices. Also, the property values assume "standard" utility values for things like property condition and less tangible things that add or subtract for a property's value, like a view.
Going by YTD median prices for homes sold, Elk Grove property values have fallen about 15% already and volume has fallen over 20%. That's not accounting for any funny business with cash-back or other incentives. Interestingly enough, the number of listings in the areas that we're interested in are actually down. Although anecdotally from co-workers and other people that we know in this area, it seems to me that there are A LOT of unhappy homeowners who want to sell but are upside-down on their mortgages and for the time being, can still afford the payments. For every home on the market, it seems like there are 2 or 3 households that want out. As the foreclosures pile up and we go through another few waves of ARMs resetting, a 30-50% drop in values for 2005 highs will be inevitable, IMHO. Once people come around to the idea that this isn't a brief hiccup in the market but instead a new reality, there will be a mad-rush to list, essentially creating a race to the bottom. Once that force takes effect, we'll see the really dramatic and painful drops in residential property that the economic fundamentals of the area demand.
And that's when we'll buy.
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