Even good economists are subject to a bit of whistling past the graveyard. "Once home sales and prices begin to stabilize, owners will resume their home improvement plans." This from a new index series that bears watching.
The LIRA is a new initiative from the Remodeling Futures Program to estimate future national remodeling activity with a horizon of three quarters. "This indicator is the first of its kind, from the Joint Center, to provide the home improvement industry with an accurate short-term projection," says research analyst Amal Bendimerad. "Our hope is that it will contribute to the growing body of information related to the remodeling industry." The LIRA will replace the Remodeling Activity Indicator (RAI) previously released by the Joint Center. The LIRA is released quarterly (April, July, October and January) by the Joint Center’s Remodeling Futures Program during the third week after each quarter’s closing. The next release date is July 19, 2007.
I wonder if pool cleaning supplies are tracked?
66 comments:
First!
Damn you Soprano!
I'm BACK you loosers! HAHAHA!
Oh man, I was hoping for my first first.
Man, is the Merced-Modesto area fucked! After spending a week in the area, I just feel dirty. I got to say though, I did have a good burrito off the "El Super Taco" truck in Merced. I didn't have time to make it over to the Modesto property. I love the idea of throwing a doll or something in the slime...
Fishing was good. Dad and I caught 8 salmon and a Kokanee at Lake McClure.
Welcome home Tony!
Thanks GO! Man it's good to be home. Sleep in my own bed, relax, go to Whole Foods for some good tomato sauce and fresh pasta with a bit of Halibut on the side for dinner tonight, washed down by a nice bottle of Felsina...
Did you have the Berardenga or the Rancia Riserva?
What Tony wants, Tony gets and this time he wanted a first.
Be careful about any talk of throwing a dummy in the pool. Casey might regard that as a personal threat.
Yes Modesto/Merced are totally screwed. Vacationing last year we drove through to check out California's newest University. Even the cows on the lawn looked sad. And the anticipation construction; unreal. If California catches cold, Merced wil get double puenomia.
Any observations on the LIRA flat with inflation for the last three quarters?
Someone else may have already brought this up, but did anyone else notice that Nigel has changed the title of his KZ site to "The Alternate Take". Perhaps Nigel is taking his first step on the road to haterz club.
Nigel: It took me a while to convert, but it's worth it. Take the plunge, the water's fine -- if you don't mind two feet of green sludge and west nile disease.
My wife got me a case of the Berardenga for my birthday a while back. When I head down to PDX in a few weeks, I'll stop by City Market and pick up some more..Did you hear that Steph J? Tell them girls at the Acrop to get a steak ready. Blood rare damnit!
It's been nice to be IAFF free for a week. I was lurking here but I figured since I was on vacation, I'd let some of the noobs bag a few firsts.
Yulia's mortgage is a 30-year ARM for right at $241,000, on a sale price of $302,000. Looks like she managed to save up and put 20% down, unlike KC and Galina. How hard it is for her to make the payments depends on how well her job pays, and what the interest rate adjusts to.
Nigel has got one stupid post up at DHC about pools. It sounds like a seventh grader wrote it for a show and tell.
LOL
@ Rob Dawg.
UC Merdead is screwed.. Poor kids stuck out there in the boonies, lol. I remember when they took out the golf course to build that place. What a bunch of idiots whining about fairy shirmp. Why no whinging about fairy shrimp when the leveled Belllevue Ranch and built stucco shitboxes??
A close friend works in City Hall. He told me that they are getting 4-5 requests a DAY to shut the water off on foreclosures and it's just getting started yet builders are still building. Major firestorm is brewing for Merced soon.
Good sleuthing Anon. I don't think the rent is gonna make or break Yulia. Besides the Eastern European folk seem to have to support on eanother til they die. If Casey and Galina split up, there will not be an eviction proceeding, he'll have to move back in with Mommy and Daddy, who will make sure their precious snowflake has lots of juice while he pursues more sweet deals. Man is he blessed or what?
I didn't know they could build pools in a walkin closet:
http://tinyurl.com/2w935p
@Fear the Murse
DHC is just a copycat regurge of EN hoping to grab some sweet numbers from newbie pissy IAFF arrivals. Don't feed Mr. Originality. It gives him false confidence. Ignore and he shall find a new venture. It's in his nature. Nigelz go where the traffic is. The traffic where people don't hate the hell out of them that is, hence his frequenting many other sites. Of course those people have gotten wise to his insane link posting.
Rob,
No, they're outpacing inflation. remember, there's at least two flavors of inflation: energy and food; everything else. Officially, this money is expected to go for everything else. So it's all good, we're still spending merrily along.
Kidding aside, I wonder when MEW gets cut off. Are flat appraisals enough, or does it take something else?
CalculatedRisk reports mortgage originations down 5 weeks straight. Almost enough to form a data point IMO. Personally I get the sense of MEW for personal consumption is already sucking air. All that appears left are the legit "fix the roof" and the insane "pay the mortgage" types of withdrawls.
Remember for places like where I live there's a long way to maxing out a HELOC. I've used like $46k of the $117k line I got for the office, roof and landscaping projects. They said I could have had $600k according to the bank and no doubt some neighbors took it. Even if prices hold/fall only a little the velocity of housing activity is going to crush a lot of people.
Off topic, but some speculation on Casey's religious background.
From 4/16/06 on Earth Mission:
"A pretty good Easter service at the Russian church in West Sacramento, celebrating Jesus Christ’s resurrection. Then lunch at Suprun’s, then we swing by Mistuiks, then I go to Peter Peychev’s house and talk to him about real estate."
There appear to be three Russian churches in West Sac.
Holy Myrhh-bearing Women Church (Russian Orthodox)
West Sacramento Russian Baptist Church
Russian Church of Evangelic Christian Baptist
At least on Galina's side that narrows it down to either Baptist or Orthodox. Knocks Mormon out of the running.
On DHC - If a blogger blogs but no one comments is it really a blog?
Nigel will fade away and I look forward to that day.
As for yesterday's "outings" of the Dawg here...that just reeked of Mr. Smarmy.
This is pretty interesting, it's from a Susan Hardwick who did her dissertation on West Sac Russians.
"How are the immigrants adjusting?
``They're not settling in very well at all,'' said Hardwick. ``I'm concerned. There's a real gender difference with women doing well. The men are on welfare while the women have gone to city college,'' she added.
Hardwick would like her next research project to investigate these gender differences.
``The men feel really let down when they arrive here,'' she said. ``They expect everything to be perfect...and yet they never bothered to learn English because they never thought they'd get out. And of course, they're used to having the state take care of them.''
Hardwick said things start to get better in the fourth or fifth year of an immigrant's new life, but by that time family dynamics have usually changed because the wives and children have learned English.
``The men are less powerful than before,'' she said.
I asked how people in Davis could support this community. I asked, for instance, if there was a Russian restaurant in West Sacramento.
``No,'' she said, ``they are not entrepreneurial people.''
Now, THAT sounds like Casey's background.
@Anan 7:16 -- Nice catch. As you noted, what she's paying could be a pretty broad range of numbers, but assuming it's something in the $1300 - $1600 a month range, then the family would need to be bringing in somewhere in the neighborhood of 70K per annum to make the nut comfortably (assuming they have more or less normal living expenses and no major debt from other sources).
Sacto's salary base is not all that high, but if there's two FTEs in the house they should have no problem hitting that number.
Ms. SPREZZATURA:
As you noted, what she's paying could be a pretty broad range of numbers, but assuming it's something in the $1300 - $1600 a month range, then the family would need to be bringing in somewhere in the neighborhood of 70K per annum to make the nut comfortably
From what I understand from previous posts, Mr. SERIN's sister-in-law is gainfully employed here. If this is correct, the pay scale can fall between $35,052 and $59,592. (I am not sure how they compute this.)
You can also see that she is qualified for "premium overtime." I imagine she volunteers for that in order to spend some quality time away from Mr. and Mrs. SERIN.
I remain,
M. SINGH
"The men are on welfare while the women have gone to city college,'' she added"
Pretty much hits the nail on the head, Casey's mom is a teacher, Yulia is obviously educated. Galina is attempting to get "edumacated" while the dad does landscaping and Casey scams.
I posted this in the other thread as well but I am guessing that Yulia's home has a second mortgage as well. Often in the property records only the first mortgage shows up even when there are two.
Since $240K is 80% of $300K and 80/20 mortgages were so popular at this time, I would bet this is the case. Or maybe Yulia put $60K down but I doubt it.
LOL,
Don't forget though, Aleksey has the Miracle of Touch™. You don't need to work when you have the Miracle of Touch™.
Get me the address for the house in question. I will research it and post the results.
Mr. Bubbles,
Yulia Suprun
2508 Snapdragon Circle
West Sacramento, CA
Here ya go
Primary Owner SUPRUN,YULIA
Secondary Owner
Ownership Description
Site Address 2508 SNAPDRAGON CIR
Site City, St Zip WEST SACRAMENTO, CA 95691
Mail Address 2508 SNAPDRAGON CIR
Mail City, St Zip WEST SACRAMENTO, CA 95691
Telephone
Census Tract 0103.00
Legal Description SD4737 LINDENWOOD VILLAGE #1
Lot/Block /
Housing Tract / Subdivision Name LINDENWOOD VILLAGE 01
Buyer / Borrower SUPRUN,YULIA
Seller Name RYLAND HOMES OF CALIFORNIA INC
Lender Name RYLAND MORTGAGE CO
Title Company FIRST AMERICAN TITLE
Transfer Date June 20, 2005
Transfer Value $302,000 (Full)
Transaction Type Sale
Document Number 0000029008
Multiple/Portion
First Loan Amount $241,592
Loan Type Conventional
Interest Rate Type Variable
Deed Type
Second Loan Amount $0
Does anyone know if these people are relatives of G?
SUPRUN,IGOR
85 LABURNUM RD ATHERTON, CA 94027-2162
SUPRUN,MICHAEL M & LUBOV
2902 RENEE CT WEST SACRAMENTO, CA 95691-4217
SUPRUN,NATALIYA & SERGEY
18130 OXNARD ST UNIT# 65 TARZANA, CA 91356-1772
SUPRUN,LISA & MARIYA /SUPRUN,SERGEY
4 PALMARITAS CT SACRAMENTO, CA 95823-5077
SUPRUN,MICHAEL M & LUBOV
3550 COYOTE RD WEST SACRAMENTO, CA 95691-5467
I thought Snowflake and G used the Coyote address once.
Even good economists are subject to a bit of whistling past the graveyard. "Once home sales and prices begin to stabilize, owners will resume their home improvement plans." This from a new index series that bears watching.
Okay rob you have got to be f-ing kidding me. The professional cult's (appraisers, economists, Realtor'sTM) are as godamn delusional as snowflake.
Do they honestly think people are buying the load of BS they are shoveling by the barrel load.
Please note the keywords "will resume after stabilization"
Also note any report that comes by the above mentioned "Proffesionals" that they gloss right over the current happenings of the market and try and paint a rosy picture.
Here are the facts:
1. Subprime market is in the crapper.
2. Shady loans are at an all time low.
3. The bailout of the subprime market is in full swing and still picking up steam.
4. Even the current Presidential Administration is interceding with pleas for the Lenders to work with borrowers to reduce the cave in from all the foreclosures.
5. Flippers, wholesalers, rehabbers have contributed immensely to the current market (shit)
6. The slowdown, bursting bubble, defaults, whatever the hell someone wants to call them are way overpriced compared to the median income of any state......COI increases have not kept up.
7. Raising the FHA/VA limits does nothing but exasberate and compount the problems.
8. The requirements for obtaining a loan have been raised alienating millions and millions from home ownership.
9. It will take a minimum of 2 more years and a huge price correction before the market even remotely stabilizes.....and even then people will be skiddish about buying a home moreso than usual.
10. casey is a fucking tool and I hate him with every fiber of my being.
BONUS REASON
11. I love stephanie J.
PSS hey soprano....what days are you coming down to pdx...I will try and clear my schedule for you so we can grab some lunch at a strip club....Galina finally got a job at The Jiggly Room....we can go see her work her magic on the stripper pole.
Dick'll Make You Slap Someone!
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Tony,
In your professional opinion, what is the nest school district on Seattle? The kid will be starting kindergarten in August so we are planning on moving now. I have been researching all the schools on greatschools.net. I am debating between Mercer Island and Issaquah. We only rent a 2 bedroom apartment so we are mobile.
I have an appointment to view a place later today on the Island. The rent is only 100 more than I pay now.
CHJTS,
We agree in general but differ on a few details.
FI; The subprime market is headed towards the crapper sure but they are still writing lots of bad loans. Less bad does cnot equal good. What's hit a wall is the resale of those bundled loans. In my opinion crapper won't apply for another quarter at least and more like 2 quarters.
I do like skittish to describe Spring '09. Gunshy also comes to mind. It will be an interesting confluence of economic forces.
That should have been the best school district..
@Mr. Bubbles
The Renee Ct address is for Galina's parents. Homey identified the Coyote address as being linked in some way to Casey. There is another address in Rancho Cordova that is Galina's brother's address.
ratlab inspired me to make a new page specific to "The Family Business." I'll collect all the pertainent posts there and we'll sort it out as we go. And the hot link name? "Pedigrees" of course.
I don't know much about either but if I had to guess I'd say Mercer. I try to stick with the Edmonds/Lynnwood/Mill Creek area. I think I'm starting to get lazy. I know another guy who is tagreting just the 98012 zip code and making a killing. He gets pissed if he has to leave that zip. I'm starting to think he might be on to something with this targeted approach rather than the shotgun style that I've been using. Less driving around, less previewing, etc, etc. Of course, for the right money and client, I wouldn't mind running around but it is getting old fast. I'm thinking I'm going to try it for a few weeks and see how it goes.
I'll be in PDX on May 8th but just for the morning and then headed to Astoria for the Oregon Offshore sailing race. I MIGHT be able to make it out for lunch. If I do, I'm going to Higgins for a burger. I just feel weird going to the Acrop during daylight.
I see that Nigel is now linking DHC through IAFF. Pathetic.
Flailing Forward
Do you think Casey claims to be homeless?
And the hot link name? "Pedigrees" of course.
We could call folks like Nigel and Snowflake...Mongrels, but that would insult the dogs....
Aside from the misfortune of having been born or married into a relationship with Casey and Galina, we don't actually KNOW that their familes are involved in anything shady.
As I have said bvefore, speculation is fun, but let's try to keep things in the reality zone. These are real people, not bits in the blogosphere.
I thought Aleksey did CAD design along with what appears to be a landscaping business...
What does MEW stand for?
MEW = Mortgage Equity Withdrawl.
HELOCs, refis, 2nds, silent seconds, whatever.
People for the last 5-8 years have been "spending" their home appreciation to mantain a lifestyle or improve a lifestyle. Sure a little went to insulation and double pane windows but a lot went to vacations and luxury vehicles.
"mortgage equity withdrawl"
jinx!
I've located the missing Utah wrap payment. It's at the bottom of the pool. Casey had better go get it quick before the mosquitos use it to buy another Vdubs.
@ Stupidtoo:
I am debating between Mercer Island and Issaquah.
You didn't ask me, but I grew up in Issaquah so I'll give you half an answer. I don't know how they compare to Mercer Island, but the Issaquah schools are or at least used to be pretty good.
The traffic is horrible pretty much all day though. The town has a few natural choke points, and a surprisingly large portion of King County goes through them to get to I-90 every day. If you do move there, consider getting a place with relatively painless access to the Park and Ride (downtown, lower parts of Squak or Cougar mtns, certainly not anything north of the freeway).
I dont understand using MEWs for anything but home improvement (and real home improvement, not just upgrading, but additional space, value-adding stuff).
We close on our 6.74% fixed rate equity loan (no fees, points, closing costs are anything) Tuesday. It goes toward a very large addition to our home. We even paid to OURSELVES, a 20% Downpayment (meaning we are paying CASH for 20% of the cost of the home addition, meaning we wont need all of the loan).
And I still have money left over for frills...
Sigh.
or anything, not are
r-boy, you are a dinosaur. You will be buried by the new wave of mammals. You don't understand the new economy.
Welcome, my friend. You "get it."
MEW's make me sick. Watch this and get ready to vomit.
http://tinyurl.com/2jyfhm
snowflake's newest post
Something’s Gotta Give
Pressure...
Debt. Finances. Blog. Foreclosure Site. Negativity. Haters. Details. Follow-through. Partnerships. Opportunities. Job. Book. Success story. Big deals. Crazy ideas. Passive income. Huge deals. Goals. Focus. Priorities. Marriage. Values. Faith. Purpose. Progress. Time. Finances. Finances. Finances…
The pressure of it all is getting to be too much.
posted @IAFF(I'm A Fucking Fool)
Take progress, success story, values, huge deals, passive income, book, and follow-through off of this list as these items were never a part of your "story."
"Job, maybe?"
gameover,
you owe me a new keyboard. my lunch came up all over it only watching about 2 minutes of that shit. holy crap that is beautiful crap!
What's with the picture? As usual, it's framed in a way to make poor wittle Casey look good.
When I saw this I thought it didn't sound like his writing style at all. Almost like Nigel wrote it to fill in for KC while he takes a nap. What is this? He lists "haterz" yet HE created US. HE fed the beast when he could have constructively LISTENED to people in the beginning. Had he shown some signs of improvement, HE'D be getting support instead he labelled any critical comments as "hating" and now has to deal with it.
IF he indeed wrote this, he has nobody to blame but himself. Every endeavor in life means working hard to achieve a goal. If this idiot can't deal with all the work, he should have taken his time. Instead he wanted to do everything the easy way and got hit hard with reality.
Casey, I don't hate you...I think you are a fool who lets greed and ego run your life. You wanted to skip working your way up and get to the top ASAP. Problem is you lost big. Get over yourself, it's gonna only get harder from here on in.
Re:
>>snowflake's newest post<<
The appropriate response to Casey would be a quote from Meatwad, from AQUA TEEN HUNGER FORCE episode #53, T-Shirt of the Living Dead:
"Cry me a river, bitch!"
------------------------
Remember, the computer can't do what I do at Century 21. Century 21, the Gold Standard.
probably won't let this through...
___________________________________
Now that I got that out of the way...
Debt. => File Bankruptcy
Finances. =>Get a job
Blog. => Stop moderating EVERY EFFING COMMENT.
Foreclosure Site. => Don't bother
Negativity. =>This is realism
Haters. =>We tried to help, you didn't listen.
Details. =>Uh, yeah...that is what business are built on. Follow-through. => Just do it!
Partnerships. =>Don't even bother, get a job.
Opportunities. =>You don't have any worth going after
Job. =>Duh.
Book. =>Nope, no one cares enough to spend the money Success story. =>What success?
Big deals. =>Your deal with the DA?
Crazy ideas. =>Aren't all of yours?
Passive income. =>Doesn't exist how you want it.
Huge deals. =>More jail bait for the DA.
Goals. => Take out the effing trash.
Focus. => Just do it
Priorities. =>God, Galina Job. NOTHING ELSE
Marriage.=>Why bother at this point? She's going to leave.
Values. => You have any beyond money?
Faith. => Better keep it or you'll get too depressed.
Purpose. =>None I can think of.
Progress. => Please prove you've made some.
Time. => You have plenty, remember, NO EFFING JOB. Finances. => GET AN EFFING JOB!
Finances. =>GET AN EFFING JOB!
Finances…=>GET AN EFFING JOB!
This dork wouldn't know pressure if it slapped him upside his pea-brain.
He made his bed and now wants us to sympathize. I know many successful people who had tough bouts in the beginning and middle of their businesses, but they never did DUMB things. This cretin wants us to feel sorry for him because he "tried." He also thinks he's successful? How is that Casey?
Pressure? Finances? I doubt that since you felt the need to take a vacation with money that wasn't yours.
FU Casey.
Dumb ass can't follow, that's his problem as well as proof he is not an entrepreneur. The sooner he realizes this, the better off he'll be.
He also needs to stop listening to cheerleaders as they are messing him up.
Sounds like just maybe the boy is starting to crack a bit eh? Perfect timing. Just getting ready to brew up a batch of Marzen. Reminded me that I need to go get some more CO2. Thanks!
Having been there, done that, I can tell you that he's cracking. To be honest I'm surprised that it's taken this long. This is actually a great next step for him. He needs to crack 100% and to come back to his blog, talk about and and reach out. He'd get mad hits and serious help, too, I'd imagine.
@ R-Boy:
You've got it all wrong. If you don't take out a bunch of equity to buy yourself a boat and a Hummer to pull it with, to say nothing of sweet 22" rimz and low profile rubber for the Hummer, you'll look like you aren't keeping up. Not only is that bad for your social life, it'll drag the neighbors' property values down because buyers will see the riff-raff living next door. That will in turn attract other riff-raff and draw *your* property value down, which means you won't walk away with enough cash to get you into the house you'll surely want to upgrade to.
You see R-Boy, It's a new paradigm, and everybody who doesn't buy, now, will be priced out forever. Anybody who does buy will be rewarded with a lifetime of riches, as their property will continue its 30% yearly price increase. Renters, and anybody born in a future generation, will not be able to afford a $10,000,000 starter home in 15 years. They will live in tent cities, and Hondas. This asset bubble is different than all of the others - it will never slow down, or pop. The gains are permanent.
So go ahead, take out a bigger HELOC and buy yourself a nice lifestyle. It's win-win. Your future demands it.
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