Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Random Post
Same subject as the previous post just throwing a curve ball to the firstitarians. Besides I like churchsigngenerator.com
Is it today or Thursday? Anyway the $300k short sale will save him. Besides a possible guest appearance by the Failure Incarnate™ himself why bother with the trash can and 8 seconds of embarrased silence? It'll go back to the bank at note value and join thousands of new listings in June at $275k and languish as long as the first digit remains a 2.
I wonder how this bubble thing will play out in areas not normally associated with the bubble. GF still wants a house, a desire I've never shared. Bubble never substantially hit here, but the slowdown sure has. RE guy I know tells me nothing is moving - in fact, he's quitting RE to drive a school bus. The agent my gf has looking for a house is also super-desperate, and kept bugging us with inappropriate listings. I've told him to bug off, for the time being at least. I think a house purchase is nothing more than a potential future unshakeable anchor at this point, something that will become ever-less-valuable and hold us prisoner if we want to move out of the area. Also, I'm a real Casey when it comes to house maintenance. I hate that stuff. Eh, goofin off, back to mixing audio...
Fannn I don't know where your "here" is but consider the possibility that "prices only went up a little" was the bubble keeping them from crashing like Detroit and Buffalo. I find it highly unlikely that anything you can get this year won't be a far better deal next and probably an even better deal into most of 2009.
In NoVa / DC the market has stalled but prices are steady. Basically, home values are not declining, but some folks do lower asking prices as desperation to move hits.
I do not see home values rising again in the area until 09/10, unless one builds an addition or otherwise makes the home more attractive.
yep totally agree with you R-boy. several houses in my neighborhood were pulled off the market in the fall. one of them 2 doors down was doing some major spring cleanup this past weekend. I suspect it will be back on the market w/in a couple weeks. I wonder what it will list for. Another house up the street built just 4 years ago is listed at $835k. They are dreaming if they think they will get that. completely floored me when i saw that asking price. I think they can probably get $735. Will be interesting to see how the spring season goes in my hood.
No fair, I'll never be first for stuff posted after 8am; I have this little thing called a job. Maybe Casey should try it sometime. I am self-employed, so there's no W2 involved, but unlike Casey I actually do some work. In fact, I get up at 4:30am so I can get some work done before my clients are in their office, that would seriously interfere with Casey's nap schedule.
R-Boy -- The market around San Francisco is very similar. Sales have declined, but prices are pretty much flat. Until places like DC and SF see a noticeable decline in prices we haven't hit the bottom. Of-course SF is unlikely to be hit by the sub-prime mess due to higher income levels and a thriving job market. Tech jobs actually took a turn for the better recently.
My point is that you're unlikely to see a decline in value (nominal) in the DC market because of its demography. It's doubtful that folks will see appreciable gains without home improvement over the next few years, but actual physical property (non-condos) should see relatively stable prices.
Another thing they want is me to put up $4,000 cash to get the foreclosure auction postponed since it’s so close (the 28th).
The 28th? Saturday? But wait, that's Casey talking. He probably has no better idea about which date the final foreclosure will be than any of us do. Or than any hobo on the street does, for that matter. I've heard 24th mentioned, but 27th also sticks in my head.
On another topic, R-Boy mentions that you might need to add an addition or make a house more attractive to sell it here. Take the latter. That's easy and won't add a lot to your cost basis.
Adding additions and then trying to sell now would be a fool's game. A friend of mine now is in that boat, trying in vain to sell a place for $475k because it's got another bathroom and bedroom added, but the houses that are actually selling and turning over in that neighborhood are the plain, unaltered houses for $350k.
I have a question for anyone who may have knowledge on the subject. When the property goes back to the bank.....how much do they usually discount it to get it off their books? 10% 20%?
You get a free 20 minute consultation with Casey on the phone where he gives you all his insider tips to get foreclosed on.
Either that or you get a patch of Swaby's remaining hair, with the scarcity of THAT commodity it might be worth 2 or 3 bucks in the near future. Frankly, knowing what a poseur he is, I wouldn't be surprised to see some implanted pubes or armpit hair on his noggin REAL soon.
@GameOver -- yes, he is an attention whore, but everyone's got a limit. This might be the week that reality comes knocking and Casey finally pays attention.
It could be he's too depressed to cope, it could be he finally got the boot, it could be that he lost the battle to kep his Internet connectivity paid up, and/or it could be he's just too ashamed to admit to the world what a failure he is. Or all of the above.
R-Boy, since I'm a home owner I hope you're right. However my gut tells me that, at least for the bay area, we've got a fall in prices coming. Maybe that's unique to this area though. There's been a trend to build "city living" complexes recently, several new buildings with 50+ units have come on the market in downtown San Francisco recently and four new 40+ story towers are due to open in the next year or two, all within walking distance of the financial district and the new mission bay business district.
While these units won't appeal to people who want a regular house, folks who want luxury condos, complete with a gym, pool, cleaning services, concierge and a walk to work, are soon going to have plenty of choice.
Given this coming excess in units (the building owners are already selling units and many are offering huge incentives to get people to commit) I think we're in for a drop in prices in this area. My wife and I are considering purchasing investment property, the homes we've looked at have been on the market for quite some time and I don't feel any need to rush. I expect they'll still be there 6 months from now, just $100K cheaper.
Steph -- it depends on the size of the apartment and the neighborhood, of course. But for an average 2-BR place, you're probably looking at a low of $1600 to a high of 2x that.
Maybe a bit less if you want to live in the fog belt, the less-safe areas, and/or so far out from downtown that you might as well be living in the burbs.
In my neighborhood north of Atlanta, prices are holding steady or even creeping up. In fact, a friend just sold his in less than a week for pretty much a new high in the neighborhood. But, two doors down there is a foreclosure that is 70k less - however, that house is a mess. Down the street, there is a corporate relo that has been for sale/lease for about 1.5 years so it's probably a wreck inside as well. It seems the well kept houses are doing fine though.
I think you'd be lucky to get a livable 2 bdr for less than $2K in SF. Check out http://www.rentalguide.com/rentalmarket.html
They show most 2 bdr apartments around $2K and that's from 2005. As the housing market has declined rents have increased significantly. A decent, but not great, 2 bed room goes for around $2400 or more today.
Not sure what NOVA areas you are looking at but from what I've seen, Fairfax and Arlington both are down to 2004 pricing with only the best properties moving at all. The MRIS confirms median price drops YoY but unfortunately without $/sq ft there is the possibility of error. I'm not too worried about that error possibility however as my observations confirm the numbers.
Kirk,
To think that areas with higher income are invulnerable is weak logic. The home prices are higher as well.
Now with that said, will DC and SF get hurt as badly as Sac and Phx, no, the former two have redeemable value as a metro area.
So you haterz figured it out about the curly hair on my head, huh? Big deal, it was money well spent, all 2759 dollars of it! Everybody knows that you don't lose pubic hair so it is there for life! The pit patches are coming along niceley as well. Yes it is a bit odd having no hair around my genitals in a freakish boy toy kind of way, but it does make my 3 incher look bigger so IT'S ALL GOOD! Oops, back to blogcation...
You're right, nowhere is invulnerable. What I was trying to say (not very well apparently) is that SF doesn't have as many subprime loans as some other areas. This is mainly due to higher average salaries and a well educated population that are unlikely to fall for sleazy mortgage brokers. Unfortunately it's the most vulnerable folks who are likely to get themselves in to a subprime mess. Of-course those folks exist in the bay area, but there are more of them in traditionally blue-collar towns. I guess that sounds a bit provincial, sorry 'bout that.
Sprezz,
I think prices have gone up in the past two years. Friends who have investment properties have found a much higher demand for rental units. I suppose that's because people aren't buying so they're becoming renters. That, coupled with more jobs coming to the bay area, means higher rents. My uneducated guess is that rents will fall as more of the downtown condos become available over the next few years, the addition of thousands of new condos will cause the median price to buy to drop. That will drive more people away from the rental market, which will cause rents to drop. In the meantime, rents will stay high for the next year.
Of-course, I'm probably completely wrong about all of this.
Damn you and your blueball counterpoint post Rob. Everytime I check the site I have to scroll down to it to look at that girl. She's so hot it's ridiculous.
Yeah, I know what you mean about the "Ball Topic" and the choice of pictures. Dawg used a hot chick in one and MY picture in the other. Damn, it's tough being good looking.
Jay, I live in Fairfax(my home borders Alexandria). I am guess houses are down 10% at most in my area. so probably back to 2005. further out areas are going to suffer the most b/c folks hate commuting.
There's lots of jobs, depending on what type of career you looking for. One of my clients expects to grow from 50 to 200 people in the next year for example.
I prefer my "unabomber" cabin in the forest. Low mtg payments, peace and quiet, the river, the milky way and most importantly, an escape from inconsiderate city-dwellers.
At 1:46 PM, flailing forward said... Damn you and your blueball counterpoint post Rob. Everytime I check the site I have to scroll down to it to look at that girl. She's so hot it's ridiculous.
And remember, when you click on the picture it gets bigger.
While snowflake may shut down IFF, there is still "ablebuyer" and anything else he may start in an effort to expand his "network of experts."
Even if we didn't hear from snowflake again, I have a feeling cornflake won't be disappearing from the net yet. And, of course, he provides many hours of fun comments.
steph If she's 12 then you need to report a bunch of us dirty ol guys here. I think she is legal my self. I don't think rob would post a picture of a 12 year old girl like that.
DC prices aren't likely to crash, as the DC metro area actually has jobs, and REAL jobs, not just real estate-related, unlike pretty much the rest of the country. Also, DC gets a lot of direct cash transfer, in the form of politicians, consulate employees, lobbyists, generally important people types who bring freezers--whoops, I mean suitcases!--full of cash and are willing to pay crazy prices for homes.
But that really only affects homes--condos are BADLY overbuilt, and thousands and thousands more coming onto the market. Also, prices in Northeast and Southeast and even PGC have spiralled out of control--all of those are going to get hit, hard. Way too much supply where there isn't the demand. I think we'll see condos coming back down well south of $300,000, and bullet-riddled bars-on-windows places in Southeast coming back down to sub-$200,000 where they should have been in the first place. I won't really be looking for a condo until they're down around $200,000, though.
And by way of reference, going rate for a one bedroom in DC (not in swanky Georgetown, just general metro area) is roughly $1400, and studios (what I'm looking for) around $1000, higher or lower depending on section of town. Expensive, but not outrageous--and the impending Ballston-Shirlington-Reston-Rockville condo implosion will pull those rents down further.
Peripheral Visionary, where are you located around here?
I think you're right about the ballston area for sure. I ride through there and the amount of construction on new high rise condos is mind boggling. My wife use to live in a place on Munroe Ave 2 blocks from the metro. she paid 750(back in 2003). it wasn't the swankest place but the location was awesome.
Steph's got a point. I'd pretty much ignored that photo, but when I went back and looked at it, that girl looked YOUNG. Even allowing for the fact she's wearing a sports bra, she barely even has boobs!
I'm currently in Bethesda, but considering moving to Foggy Bottom. But Foggy Bottom is expensive, so I'm taking my time looking for places, hoping to find a deal when the students leave en masse for their summer break. I used to live in Rossly, great location, but all of the reasonably priced places are not desirable places to live (-> River Place; when are they going to tear that thing down?)
Anyway, I think things are looking OK for DC--even if the government cuts back on spending (ha!), there's actually a self-sustaining economy here. And of course Mayor Fenty is determined to clean out the corruption in D.C. government--while he's not going to be 100% successful, any improvement in the crime rate and the schools could prompt an influx of people into the region.
But the condo market's still in serious trouble. And I'm thinking about catching a little bit of that knife when it hits bottom, or rather after it has a chance to bounce.
not everyone woman is well endowed on the top. I've dated a couple that looked like that gal. smokin hot bods in every other way. abs that put most men to shame but no boobs. I agree with steph though. she's not out of her teens.
I assume you work in DC. your profile says consultant. seems this area is full of consultants(includes me). The DC area is probably one of the areas that will withstand a housing downturn the best. what is going to be interesting is the decision to move so many folks out to Ft. Belvoir. THAT is going to create some serious influxes in housing demand and transportation.
Speak for yourself, Anon. He doesn't torture me. I think he'd do the world a favour if he kept his failure to himself so we wouldn't be bothered to care at all.
Adjusted for inflation, income has declined in the majority of the DC area (with Great Falls being a notable exception). DC has good jobs but it always has had them. Precisely what leads you to believe that the population can sustain doubled prices with a flat or negative change in income?
FYI I used the census' 2000 vs 2005 household income stats to determine the change in income. I did not do all DC, mostly Arlington and easter FFX counties.
I am unashamed. I think she's so fine, she should be a 90 in a 55 ticket on the way to Reno. And with a body like that, she don't need boobs. Ay caramba!!
I predict that Casey spent the last three days being 5% productive at opening his 753 emails.
I can't tell you where I got the picture. I don't visit those kinds of sites. I can tell you that I imagine that was the only picture that involved clothing and that there most definitiely was an "all models are of legal age at the time of the shooting" disclaimer. At least That's what I imagine it would say if I ever went to one of those sites.
please assign a few people the duty of checking and posting new casey info so i dont have to go there and see his mug anymore.
also i believe mr. serin is watching with his pet nigel to see when comments on his blog die down over here, so that he can pick back up...he thinks he can wait you all out and start semi-fresh.
I got the email from Homey and acted upon it right away. Even sent a nice thank you to his undisclosed secret email. Can't tell you about the hot hot contents because the criminal would read it and immediately cover their tracks.
Yeah, like Sprezz said. It could be a public forum with a private subforum where only approved elite uberhaterz could view.
In order to be approved, you would have to take an oath: I, so and so, a haterz, do solemnly swear that Casey Serin is a criminal and that murses are retarded. I furthermore swear that Nigel Swaby, mortgage broker with Integrity First Financial, is an unethical dickhead who no one in their right mind should ever trust with their personal details or their financial future. Finally, I hereby declare that EN roolz. Amen.
Having never been able to achieve the hallowed firstness, I'm especially willing to swear that murses are retarded. At least until the big dawg's next post.
I'm coming after you aaron, wankspittle, and soprano. Watch your backs.
Ardeth Bey: If I were to say to you that, "I am a stranger traveling from the East, seeking that which is lost"... Rick: Then I would reply that, "I am a stranger traveling from the West, it is I whom you seek."
Same subject as the previous post just throwing a curve ball to the firstitarians. Besides I like churchsigngenerator.com
125 comments:
first
Foist
Damnit!
Im on top steph! ;)
Funny, I didn't think of Steph as being the churchgoing type.
murst
I call Lucky Number 7
Keeping the Dawg Pound fresh!
MURST BEYOTCHES!
I can't keep it all straight any more...is today Fliptard's last Happy Foreclosure Day?
Wow Rob -
Thanks. I love that website.
aaack!!
Hello everyone from Madrid. Beautiful, warm sunny day here today. Almost done with work, then gonna take a nap in a warm spot!
And a BIG poop in the general direction of Fucktard and Swabtard!
thppttt!!!
S_t_C
Like the churchsign generator. I (sad nerd that I am) have this one bookmarked http://atom.smasher.org/
Kookiness in SLC:
http://www.mortgagefraudblog.com/index.php/weblog/permalink/corey_david_nance_will_spend_60_months_in_federal_prison_after_pleading_gui/
Gee I guess you CAN go to prison for mortgage fraud!
Utah has the very highest ethical standards in their mortgage industry. Just ask them. There aren't nough prisons to hold all the real estate crooks.
Anyone going to Caseys last foreclosure?
If we knew casey would be there it would be great to have someone snapping pictures and ask him a couple questions in person :)
I doubt casey goes though. Probably doesnt have the cash to pay for gas.
Is it today or Thursday? Anyway the $300k short sale will save him. Besides a possible guest appearance by the Failure Incarnate™ himself why bother with the trash can and 8 seconds of embarrased silence? It'll go back to the bank at note value and join thousands of new listings in June at $275k and languish as long as the first digit remains a 2.
I wonder how this bubble thing will play out in areas not normally associated with the bubble. GF still wants a house, a desire I've never shared. Bubble never substantially hit here, but the slowdown sure has. RE guy I know tells me nothing is moving - in fact, he's quitting RE to drive a school bus. The agent my gf has looking for a house is also super-desperate, and kept bugging us with inappropriate listings. I've told him to bug off, for the time being at least. I think a house purchase is nothing more than a potential future unshakeable anchor at this point, something that will become ever-less-valuable and hold us prisoner if we want to move out of the area. Also, I'm a real Casey when it comes to house maintenance. I hate that stuff. Eh, goofin off, back to mixing audio...
Fannn I don't know where your "here" is but consider the possibility that "prices only went up a little" was the bubble keeping them from crashing like Detroit and Buffalo. I find it highly unlikely that anything you can get this year won't be a far better deal next and probably an even better deal into most of 2009.
In NoVa / DC the market has stalled but prices are steady. Basically, home values are not declining, but some folks do lower asking prices as desperation to move hits.
I do not see home values rising again in the area until 09/10, unless one builds an addition or otherwise makes the home more attractive.
sactown is still moving down. won't hit bottom for another year or two. smart sellers are taking their equity and renting if they wish to stay in sac.
yep totally agree with you R-boy. several houses in my neighborhood were pulled off the market in the fall. one of them 2 doors down was doing some major spring cleanup this past weekend. I suspect it will be back on the market w/in a couple weeks. I wonder what it will list for. Another house up the street built just 4 years ago is listed at $835k. They are dreaming if they think they will get that. completely floored me when i saw that asking price. I think they can probably get $735. Will be interesting to see how the spring season goes in my hood.
No fair, I'll never be first for stuff posted after 8am; I have this little thing called a job. Maybe Casey should try it sometime. I am self-employed, so there's no W2 involved, but unlike Casey I actually do some work. In fact, I get up at 4:30am so I can get some work done before my clients are in their office, that would seriously interfere with Casey's nap schedule.
R-Boy -- The market around San Francisco is very similar. Sales have declined, but prices are pretty much flat. Until places like DC and SF see a noticeable decline in prices we haven't hit the bottom. Of-course SF is unlikely to be hit by the sub-prime mess due to higher income levels and a thriving job market. Tech jobs actually took a turn for the better recently.
http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/apr2007/tc20070424_967747.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_top+story
Aspeth has a nice Fliptard recap up today...
Kirk,
My point is that you're unlikely to see a decline in value (nominal) in the DC market because of its demography. It's doubtful that folks will see appreciable gains without home improvement over the next few years, but actual physical property (non-condos) should see relatively stable prices.
From above [Rob Dawg]: "Is it today or Thursday?"
From what Casey said recently:
Another thing they want is me to put up $4,000 cash to get the foreclosure auction postponed since it’s so close (the 28th).
The 28th? Saturday? But wait, that's Casey talking. He probably has no better idea about which date the final foreclosure will be than any of us do. Or than any hobo on the street does, for that matter. I've heard 24th mentioned, but 27th also sticks in my head.
On another topic, R-Boy mentions that you might need to add an addition or make a house more attractive to sell it here. Take the latter. That's easy and won't add a lot to your cost basis.
Adding additions and then trying to sell now would be a fool's game. A friend of mine now is in that boat, trying in vain to sell a place for $475k because it's got another bathroom and bedroom added, but the houses that are actually selling and turning over in that neighborhood are the plain, unaltered houses for $350k.
I *love* Church-sign generator.
"Molestation Free since July 2003"
Heh heh
Well, whatever day it is, Muncey's going down sometime this week.
It's possible Casey really has decided to give up on the blog. In which case.... either we go our merry ways, or we find something new to talk about.
FORUMS!!!!
"Molestation Free..."
Now that's the Stephanie we know and <3.
"Molestation Free since July 2003"
I call shenanigans.
Is this really the end of Snowflake as we know him? I strongly doubt he can stay out of the spotlight for too much longer.
He's an attention whore plain and simple.
Muncy Dr. in Modesto is scheduled for auction on 4-27-07. Opening bid is $287,825.87
Doesn't seem like a short sale is going to happen.
I have a question for anyone who may have knowledge on the subject. When the property goes back to the bank.....how much do they usually discount it to get it off their books? 10% 20%?
Dawg, what do we get for being in f*cked seller status?
@Mozatta
You get a free 20 minute consultation with Casey on the phone where he gives you all his insider tips to get foreclosed on.
Either that or you get a patch of Swaby's remaining hair, with the scarcity of THAT commodity it might be worth 2 or 3 bucks in the near future. Frankly, knowing what a poseur he is, I wouldn't be surprised to see some implanted pubes or armpit hair on his noggin REAL soon.
Mozatta asks; Dawg, what do we get for being in f*cked seller status?
Besides sympathy? Maybe get one of those digital countdown signs to display the wishing price in the front yard. ;-)
Yeah, I guess being foreclosed on will help me get rid of the house.
Thanks Casey!! I'd be stuck with good credit and an unwanted house had you not helped.
Sweeet!
@GameOver -- yes, he is an attention whore, but everyone's got a limit. This might be the week that reality comes knocking and Casey finally pays attention.
It could be he's too depressed to cope, it could be he finally got the boot, it could be that he lost the battle to kep his Internet connectivity paid up, and/or it could be he's just too ashamed to admit to the world what a failure he is. Or all of the above.
Ha! Nigel with a pube toup. That would be a sight to behold. I mean a site: Swabypubicimplants.blogspot.com
R-Boy, since I'm a home owner I hope you're right. However my gut tells me that, at least for the bay area, we've got a fall in prices coming. Maybe that's unique to this area though. There's been a trend to build "city living" complexes recently, several new buildings with 50+ units have come on the market in downtown San Francisco recently and four new 40+ story towers are due to open in the next year or two, all within walking distance of the financial district and the new mission bay business district.
While these units won't appeal to people who want a regular house, folks who want luxury condos, complete with a gym, pool, cleaning services, concierge and a walk to work, are soon going to have plenty of choice.
Given this coming excess in units (the building owners are already selling units and many are offering huge incentives to get people to commit) I think we're in for a drop in prices in this area. My wife and I are considering purchasing investment property, the homes we've looked at have been on the market for quite some time and I don't feel any need to rush. I expect they'll still be there 6 months from now, just $100K cheaper.
Church sign generator, eh? I just passed by the Russian Orthodox church near Casey and saw this sign. Now it all makes sense! :-)
@kirk -- I hope you are right, because I'm looking forward to having some more affordable apartment choices in SF.
@Gameover
There's only room for one attention whore around here, and that's ME!! Move over you skinny-assed Uzbek Poser...
@Sprezz
Just out of curiosity, what does pass for affordable rent in SF?
Steph -- it depends on the size of the apartment and the neighborhood, of course. But for an average 2-BR place, you're probably looking at a low of $1600 to a high of 2x that.
Maybe a bit less if you want to live in the fog belt, the less-safe areas, and/or so far out from downtown that you might as well be living in the burbs.
*shrug* That's big city living for you.
I have a sibling in NYC paying $4000 / month in rent. Now THAT'S over the top... but at least said sib can walk to work at the big Wall Street job.
You can have all the attention you want Steph!
er....is it over? It ends with a whimper? Not a bang? A bit disappointing.
If only Casey had watched SNL...
http://tinyurl.com/ystdv6
In my neighborhood north of Atlanta, prices are holding steady or even creeping up. In fact, a friend just sold his in less than a week for pretty much a new high in the neighborhood. But, two doors down there is a foreclosure that is 70k less - however, that house is a mess. Down the street, there is a corporate relo that has been for sale/lease for about 1.5 years so it's probably a wreck inside as well. It seems the well kept houses are doing fine though.
@ bemused guy -- I sure hope not. I was always keeping the faith that R-boy & Homey could work their magic and drag fliptard off to jail.
I really don't think Casey can end it without a last hurah. He was told to stop blogging by lots of people and didn't listen...he enjoys it too much.
Fliptard is just plotting his return.
@Game -- it's always possible that he has started a new blog somewhere.
Ugh. $4k a month. $50k a year down the toilet. You just made my wallet cry.
searching for the real Snowflake. Nothing yet but here are some Casey related posts...
http://leftonred.wordpress.com/2007/04/24/casey-in-spacey/
http://torcie.blogspot.com/2007/04/it-started-as-trainwreck.html
@Sprezzatura:
I think you'd be lucky to get a livable 2 bdr for less than $2K in SF. Check out http://www.rentalguide.com/rentalmarket.html
They show most 2 bdr apartments around $2K and that's from 2005. As the housing market has declined rents have increased significantly. A decent, but not great, 2 bed room goes for around $2400 or more today.
R-Boy,
Not sure what NOVA areas you are looking at but from what I've seen, Fairfax and Arlington both are down to 2004 pricing with only the best properties moving at all. The MRIS confirms median price drops YoY but unfortunately without $/sq ft there is the possibility of error. I'm not too worried about that error possibility however as my observations confirm the numbers.
Kirk,
To think that areas with higher income are invulnerable is weak logic. The home prices are higher as well.
Now with that said, will DC and SF get hurt as badly as Sac and Phx, no, the former two have redeemable value as a metro area.
So you haterz figured it out about the curly hair on my head, huh? Big deal, it was money well spent, all 2759 dollars of it! Everybody knows that you don't lose pubic hair so it is there for life! The pit patches are coming along niceley as well. Yes it is a bit odd having no hair around my genitals in a freakish boy toy kind of way, but it does make my 3 incher look bigger so IT'S ALL GOOD! Oops, back to blogcation...
@Kirk -- as of fall 2005 I was paying $1600 for our 2BR place in SF but admittedly, not in a chic neighborhood.
Jay,
You're right, nowhere is invulnerable. What I was trying to say (not very well apparently) is that SF doesn't have as many subprime loans as some other areas. This is mainly due to higher average salaries and a well educated population that are unlikely to fall for sleazy mortgage brokers. Unfortunately it's the most vulnerable folks who are likely to get themselves in to a subprime mess. Of-course those folks exist in the bay area, but there are more of them in traditionally blue-collar towns. I guess that sounds a bit provincial, sorry 'bout that.
Sprezz,
I think prices have gone up in the past two years. Friends who have investment properties have found a much higher demand for rental units. I suppose that's because people aren't buying so they're becoming renters. That, coupled with more jobs coming to the bay area, means higher rents. My uneducated guess is that rents will fall as more of the downtown condos become available over the next few years, the addition of thousands of new condos will cause the median price to buy to drop. That will drive more people away from the rental market, which will cause rents to drop. In the meantime, rents will stay high for the next year.
Of-course, I'm probably completely wrong about all of this.
Damn you and your blueball counterpoint post Rob. Everytime I check the site I have to scroll down to it to look at that girl. She's so hot it's ridiculous.
@Kirk -- you could well be right about recent prices. I haven't really been looking at the SF rental market since we moved.
I wish I knew where all those jobs were, though, because I'm having a hard time with my job hunt. It could just be me, of course.
Flailing,
Yeah, I know what you mean about the "Ball Topic" and the choice of pictures. Dawg used a hot chick in one and MY picture in the other. Damn, it's tough being good looking.
Jay,
I live in Fairfax(my home borders Alexandria). I am guess houses are down 10% at most in my area. so probably back to 2005. further out areas are going to suffer the most b/c folks hate commuting.
Yyyeeep... us hayseeds say y'all ken keep yer big city livin'.
yep yeeep.
Sprezz,
There's lots of jobs, depending on what type of career you looking for. One of my clients expects to grow from 50 to 200 people in the next year for example.
What type of work are you looking for? Someone here may know of something. Also, do you have your resumé online?
I prefer my "unabomber" cabin in the forest. Low mtg payments, peace and quiet, the river, the milky way and most importantly, an escape from inconsiderate city-dwellers.
At 1:46 PM, flailing forward said...
Damn you and your blueball counterpoint post Rob. Everytime I check the site I have to scroll down to it to look at that girl. She's so hot it's ridiculous.
And remember, when you click on the picture it gets bigger.
While snowflake may shut down IFF, there is still "ablebuyer" and anything else he may start in an effort to expand his "network of experts."
Even if we didn't hear from snowflake again, I have a feeling cornflake won't be disappearing from the net yet. And, of course, he provides many hours of fun comments.
HOT?!?!
She's freakin' 12 years old!!!
YO YO YO ITS HOMEY TIME
Dawg,
Yu git my email?
Love ,
Homey
@kirk -- I'm trying to keep my personal information and Sprezz here disconnected, just in case Nigel decides to go on another outing rampage.
sprezzie.t@gmail.com is a working email address, though, and it forwards to my real email, if you'd like to drop me a line.
steph If she's 12 then you need to report a bunch of us dirty ol guys here. I think she is legal my self. I don't think rob would post a picture of a 12 year old girl like that.
Yo, Homey's word processor is:
HERE and keepin' it real
Maybe Homey did finaly drop in on F*cktard...
DC prices aren't likely to crash, as the DC metro area actually has jobs, and REAL jobs, not just real estate-related, unlike pretty much the rest of the country. Also, DC gets a lot of direct cash transfer, in the form of politicians, consulate employees, lobbyists, generally important people types who bring freezers--whoops, I mean suitcases!--full of cash and are willing to pay crazy prices for homes.
But that really only affects homes--condos are BADLY overbuilt, and thousands and thousands more coming onto the market. Also, prices in Northeast and Southeast and even PGC have spiralled out of control--all of those are going to get hit, hard. Way too much supply where there isn't the demand. I think we'll see condos coming back down well south of $300,000, and bullet-riddled bars-on-windows places in Southeast coming back down to sub-$200,000 where they should have been in the first place. I won't really be looking for a condo until they're down around $200,000, though.
And by way of reference, going rate for a one bedroom in DC (not in swanky Georgetown, just general metro area) is roughly $1400, and studios (what I'm looking for) around $1000, higher or lower depending on section of town. Expensive, but not outrageous--and the impending Ballston-Shirlington-Reston-Rockville condo implosion will pull those rents down further.
Peripheral Visionary,
where are you located around here?
I think you're right about the ballston area for sure. I ride through there and the amount of construction on new high rise condos is mind boggling. My wife use to live in a place on Munroe Ave 2 blocks from the metro. she paid 750(back in 2003). it wasn't the swankest place but the location was awesome.
*******************barely********************* legal, if at all.
Look at her face. She looks like a teen.
For shame.
Steph's got a point. I'd pretty much ignored that photo, but when I went back and looked at it, that girl looked YOUNG. Even allowing for the fact she's wearing a sports bra, she barely even has boobs!
I'm currently in Bethesda, but considering moving to Foggy Bottom. But Foggy Bottom is expensive, so I'm taking my time looking for places, hoping to find a deal when the students leave en masse for their summer break. I used to live in Rossly, great location, but all of the reasonably priced places are not desirable places to live (-> River Place; when are they going to tear that thing down?)
Anyway, I think things are looking OK for DC--even if the government cuts back on spending (ha!), there's actually a self-sustaining economy here. And of course Mayor Fenty is determined to clean out the corruption in D.C. government--while he's not going to be 100% successful, any improvement in the crime rate and the schools could prompt an influx of people into the region.
But the condo market's still in serious trouble. And I'm thinking about catching a little bit of that knife when it hits bottom, or rather after it has a chance to bounce.
not everyone woman is well endowed on the top. I've dated a couple that looked like that gal. smokin hot bods in every other way. abs that put most men to shame but no boobs. I agree with steph though. she's not out of her teens.
Peripheral Visionary,
I assume you work in DC. your profile says consultant. seems this area is full of consultants(includes me). The DC area is probably one of the areas that will withstand a housing downturn the best. what is going to be interesting is the decision to move so many folks out to Ft. Belvoir. THAT is going to create some serious influxes in housing demand and transportation.
You are right, that girl is probably 18 or 19. Shameful; just shameful.
WHY DOES CASEY TORTURE US BY NOT POSTING?
Speak for yourself, Anon. He doesn't torture me. I think he'd do the world a favour if he kept his failure to himself so we wouldn't be bothered to care at all.
PV,
Adjusted for inflation, income has declined in the majority of the DC area (with Great Falls being a notable exception). DC has good jobs but it always has had them. Precisely what leads you to believe that the population can sustain doubled prices with a flat or negative change in income?
FYI I used the census' 2000 vs 2005 household income stats to determine the change in income. I did not do all DC, mostly Arlington and easter FFX counties.
**AHEM**
Church Sign
**********
I am unashamed. I think she's so fine, she should be a 90 in a 55 ticket on the way to Reno. And with a body like that, she don't need boobs. Ay caramba!!
I predict that Casey spent the last three days being 5% productive at opening his 753 emails.
Excellent point anon 3:04.
"Muncy Dr. in Modesto is scheduled for auction on 4-27-07. Opening bid is $287,825.87"
Oy veh. I'd feel ripped off if I only paid 187k for that place.
I think it's hilarious how Casey threw a little tantrum and is now doing the web version of holding his breath.
Such a little baby. Poor wittle Casey...
I can't tell you where I got the picture. I don't visit those kinds of sites. I can tell you that I imagine that was the only picture that involved clothing and that there most definitiely was an "all models are of legal age at the time of the shooting" disclaimer. At least That's what I imagine it would say if I ever went to one of those sites.
"Muncy Dr. in Modesto is scheduled for auction on 4-27-07. Opening bid is $287,825.87"
Maybe this is why Casey went postal over the weekend, He found out his last short sale has been rejected and he is no longer a "real estate investor"
Any chance that Cashcall have been round and taken the computer, PDA, cellphone etc. ?
From the Countrywide REO blog...
http://countrywide-foreclosures.blogspot.com/
NORTH HIGHLANDS
6500 LARCHMONT DRIVE,
NORTH HIGHLANDS CA 95660
SFR
CHERYL ACKERMAN GRIFFIN 916-7050085
$199,900.00
@Arthur
Nope, cause he still posted that nice helpful photo hint on the Flickr photo of the Google Maps yesterday.
@flailing 3:09
In your dreams old man!
Yeah, I have no idea if you're an old man, but you're older than she is!
Isn't anyone curious about Homey's email?
Rob Dawg, did you receive it?
please assign a few people the duty of checking and posting new casey info so i dont have to go there and see his mug anymore.
also i believe mr. serin is watching with his pet nigel to see when comments on his blog die down over here, so that he can pick back up...he thinks he can wait you all out and start semi-fresh.
Flailing said: productive at opening his 753 emails.
753 Emails - 750 emails from Nigel = 3
@ kirk
The older I get, the hotter they look.
@ Rob
Yeah, what's in Homey's email? Also, can't you just go ahead and stick up the forums, bugs and all?
@flailing
The older I get, the younger they get.
just wondering, what was in that email? tell us, man!
I got the email from Homey and acted upon it right away. Even sent a nice thank you to his undisclosed secret email. Can't tell you about the hot hot contents because the criminal would read it and immediately cover their tracks.
If we had PRIVATE FORUMS instead of a PUBLIC BLOG Homey wouldn't need to be so discreet.
@ratlab -- is that the new owner of N Highland?
If we had private forums, Homey would have to be MORE discreet. Do you honestly believe a bunch of Haterz(tm) will keep their collective mouth shut?
Yeah, like Sprezz said. It could be a public forum with a private subforum where only approved elite uberhaterz could view.
In order to be approved, you would have to take an oath:
I, so and so, a haterz, do solemnly swear that Casey Serin is a criminal and that murses are retarded. I furthermore swear that Nigel Swaby, mortgage broker with Integrity First Financial, is an unethical dickhead who no one in their right mind should ever trust with their personal details or their financial future. Finally, I hereby declare that EN roolz. Amen.
And in reference to my lustful desires I revealed earlier, I may be older, but I can assure you that my maturity level is on par.
Having never been able to achieve the hallowed firstness, I'm especially willing to swear that murses are retarded. At least until the big dawg's next post.
I'm coming after you aaron, wankspittle, and soprano. Watch your backs.
Casey and I will soon be sharing fish-soup and optimistical cosmic rays in my bio-energy-information chamber!
Hmmmmm.....an oath. That has possibilities; especially for someone traveling to the East.
The Dude, I have traveled to the East as well. Seems like there are fewer and fewer traveling men these days.
Ardeth Bey: If I were to say to you that, "I am a stranger traveling from the East, seeking that which is lost"...
Rick: Then I would reply that, "I am a stranger traveling from the West, it is I whom you seek."
Fewer and fewer members of our society could pass an investigation and have no concept of being obligated......
If snowflake petitioned, the report would be dark....EXTREMELY dark....LOL
I agree.
PM Zebulon #609 AF&AM
Zebulon, NC
MM Eastern Star Lodge #151 F&AM
Winnfield, LA
GTMY Brother.
We gonna need a freemason forum now too?
Wait for it...
Dawg Star Sirius
...[groan]
Can we have a secret handshake? I've always wanted a secret handshake!!
Okay, I don't know how a secret handshake would work online... I'll have to do a meditative fast on it.
Sorry Rob. Feel free to delete any or all of my comments if you think them inappropriate. No problem there.
That's pawshake Orson. If you aren't gonna get down with the kitsch we ain't gonna let you run with the pack.
You're right, secret pawshake it is. But if it involves bum sniffing, I'll probably want to take a pass on it.
Play with more neat sign generators on
http://www.CustomSignGenerator.com (over 5,000 online image templates).
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