Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
Monday, April 30, 2007
Still Nothing
Temporary IAFF outage. I-80/580 East Bay. Ventura County foreclosure spike. California (see above) dysfunction or signs signs or the apocalypse? Ferris says; "nothing to see."
"Are sales slowing down now? Yes. Is it because of a housing bubble? No!" "Over the next five months we'll see news reports of slowing sales, your friends who are selling will tell you how terrible the market is and most people will shy away from purchasing homes. Yet in the spring, the cycle will begin again. Bargains will be found since people who really need to sell will keep their homes on the market, while those who are less serious will remove them. This cycle repeats itself every year."
That is so funny. When you said; "Yet in the spring, the cycle will begin again."
This is what I remembered:
President "Bobby": Mr. Gardner, do you agree with Ben, or do you think that we can stimulate growth through temporary incentives? [Long pause] Chance the Gardener: As long as the roots are not severed, all is well. And all will be well in the garden. President "Bobby": In the garden. Chance the Gardener: Yes. In the garden, growth has it seasons. First comes spring and summer, but then we have fall and winter. And then we get spring and summer again. President "Bobby": Spring and summer. Chance the Gardener: Yes. President "Bobby": Then fall and winter. Chance the Gardener: Yes. Benjamin Rand: I think what our insightful young friend is saying is that we welcome the inevitable seasons of nature, but we're upset by the seasons of our economy. Chance the Gardener: Yes! There will be growth in the spring! Benjamin Rand: Hmm! Chance the Gardener: Hmm! President "Bobby": Hm. Well, Mr. Gardner, I must admit that is one of the most refreshing and optimistic statements I've heard in a very, very long time. [Benjamin Rand applauds] President "Bobby": I admire your good, solid sense. That's precisely what we lack on Capitol Hill. Ron Steigler: Mr. Gardner, uh, my editors and I have been wondering if you would consider writing a book for us, something about your um, political philosophy, what do you say? ----
Unfortunately Nigel cannot grow up to be President.
"Bad news for bubble bloggers today. Their "world is going to hell" doomsday scenario is falling to pieces." "If you're thinking of buying a home and are put off by fears of a market downturn or being turned down for a loan, don't worry." Award-winning blog enthusiast, Nigel Swaby 10/16/06
No new comments on IAFF. The clock is ticking. No time for a begathon. He's got 24 hours until he has to put up rent or get out... If he's telling us the truth.
"The author completely exposes their ignorance in the final paragraph by claiming the way to get out of a HELOC is, "Unlike Helocs, home-equity loans are usually fixed-rate loans." "Now, home buyers and home sellers, are you going to make decisions about real estate based on the opinions of authors like these? I certainly hope not." Award-winning incomprehensible sentence structure enthusiast, Nigel Swaby 10/3/06
One of the bestest Nigel quotes ever (next to his Casey Serin shrewdness evaluation): "I am getting tired of all the spam from posting my email on other sites." Award-winning link spammer, Nigel Swaby 10/6/06
Actually a begathon tonight with a promise of proceeds to go to Yulia immediately would probably suffice to buy him an extra week or two to come up with more. However if Yulia knows him, and she doubtless does at this point from watching his serious inaction coupled with long conversation with her sister, it would appear that Casey will be moving back in with Mommy and Daddy.
As he said before, "I get free produce from my parents when I visit them every week. They go to the Denio’s farmer’s market in Roseville and buy lots of produce direct from the farmers at a discount.
I (try to) reimburse them for their cost. My mom is happy to help me out and will not let me leave without grabbing a bag of produce and any other food she can give me."
Looks like Mom and Dad will be helipng out a lot more after tomorrow. The real burning question here is, will Galina join him at Mom and Dad's or will she stay with her sister until Casey pulls his shit together? Oh the scenarios...
He's got 24 hours until he has to put up rent or get out...
I'd be surprised if he gets kicked out. I suspect he'll just tap that line of credit over at the corporation . . . he said he wouldn't use the corporate credit for personal expenses, although I suspect his actually wording included the word "try", and we all know what that means.
I vaguely recall something coming up about the corporation getting suspended; if so, then that's probably where the beg-a-thon money went, to get the corporation re-activated so that he could keep tapping its line of credit for vacations and eating out . . . er, whoops, I mean for business trips and business dinners, of course.
Nigel answers to these transgressions with the pat "Hindsight is 20/20. I wrote that eight months ago long before all the shenanigans ensued. What did you write 8 months ago?
Hmmmmm, I believe 8 months ago I was posting on HP that there was an imminent housing crisis that would spare barely a single market.
I also thought 8 months ago that Casey was a complete fool for buying at the top of the market and it was my personal feeling that he would end up this was - without a single house. Although admittedly I thought there was no way a person could be as stupid. I thought he would at least try to BK.
I saw a quick seminar commercial this morning on how to buy foreclosures. Free admission, local hotels, all the usual shenanigans with folks saying how they made 20k in a few hours.
At the end the ad said 'it's win-win'. Sweet. I forgot the website address though.
@ TK Yeah, I know that will be his response, but nothing is more aggravating than having oneself sounding like a complete dumbass quoted back to oneself, and SLC is like an all-you-can-eat dumbass buffet. Nigeypoo, I hope you enjoy the taste of crow. Eat up, it may be the last meal you have for a while.
But TK you're right, the outcome of IAFF and the housing market is pretty much what haterz have been saying all along.
More Nigelly goodness: "The Salt Lake Real Estate Blog has been up for three weeks and it's been a great success. Right now there is so much talk and interest in real estate I've struggled to post on a daily basis..." 10/6/06
"Nothing makes me angrier than hearing about inappropriate behavior in the real estate business." 10/20/06
"Casey Serin broke the law by lying on his mortgage applications. There's no doubt about that." 4/10/07
"Casey asked me to partner with him on the website." "In March he came to Salt Lake on the dime of his money partner to investigate another opportunity. While he was here we discussed the web partnership face to face. Once we came to some conclusions, with the first one being for him to get a regular job, an agreement was drawn up." 4/1/07
I predicted that a while ago--using the corporate credit to catch up his rent. Completely justifiable to him, because it's for his home office, after all!
Rent is due tomorrow -- why doesn't Casey sell the POS Jetta, and then walk or take the bus to work? The more he is off of the streets, the safer it is for all concerned.
a few people are putting more work into quoting Award Winning Real Estate Blogger Nigel Swaby and I want to express my appreciation for this work. It took me some time to realize that writing about investing entails a big dose of humility. Nigel wants to swing pom pom's, and above all, disparage and berate those who disagree with his predictions. Of course, over time, even while his predictions fail miserably, he needs them smashed back in his face so the learning process can continue. Thankfully, these outrageous statements are funny to us, so please let's repeat them as jokes to one another. Putting a date with them, or even a url trackback, might keep them in context. great work.
predicted that a while ago--using the corporate credit to catch up his rent. Completely justifiable to him, because it's for his home office, after all!
I remember the summer after graduating from college. Thought I'd reward myself (a la Casey) and spend the summer at my parents' house... and play basketball and eat Taco Bell everyday... while half-heartedly looking for a job.
Almost two months into this, my dad came into my room and asked when I planned on moving out since this was not the reason they paid for college. I got the message. I had a decent job and was out on my own within the month.
If snowflake was given a kick in the pants/balls by everyone in his family, I'm not sure it would have the same result as mine. Snowflake is too deluded/brainwashed/con artist minded to get his life back on track.
Rent is due tomorrow -- why doesn't Casey sell the POS Jetta, and then walk or take the bus to work?
Sell the Jetta? With the stereo gone it's lost half its value; and Casey lovingly documented its many faults online to further deter any potential buyers.
We did advise him in December to sell the sweet rims, though...
Rent is due tomorrow -- why doesn't Casey sell the POS Jetta, and then walk or take the bus to work? The more he is off of the streets, the safer it is for all concerned.
I believe all the clues show that Yulia is a hardworking single gal. She was probably happy to have some family move in after she bought the nice new spaceous townhouse, and could make good use of the spare room(s) for rent money. I hope the room rent wasn't necessary for her to carry the mortgage. I'm sad for her, an obviously good hearted woman.
Nobody can claim any of Casey's family is innocent; they've all been a support system for him through this; and have enabled him to continue. So they're just as much responsible for his mistakes as he is.
I need a question answered before indicting the family. When C&G showed up on Ys doorstep, what was their story? If it was "a couple months, cash flow crunch" then it is hard to turn your own sister away. Surely the answer wasn't; "fraud catching up, seeking to sponge until crimes catch up." That Y is demanding back rent plus 2 months in advance tells me she's caught on to a scheme she had nothing to do with.
Unbelieveable! Casey is now writing about living in his car like it'll be great for his story and he can get lots of media attention out of it! After all, Anya Peters got a book deal out of her experience living in a car!
I've been lurking both here and IAFF for nearly three months now... and finally was compelled to post today.
--- #. Lucius Domitius Ahenobarbus
Hi Casey -- long-time lurker (and hater), first time poster.
"Even though I don’t think my sister-in-law is going to kick me out..."
Normal people have a phrase to describe this, Casey -- it's called "calling their bluff." It tends to aggravate people, so I think you should be praying to your Maker that Y does not read this post.
The fact that she is asking for a certified check should be a glaring sign that this is no bluff; it means she's serious on getting her money AND that it's money you have earned as income (as opposed to money you borrowed on credit).
You are on the verge of being evicted, and you are still thinking about entrepreneurship, still thinking about sweet deals.
"I have plenty of opportunities to solve my cashflow problems, pay off all the debt and become successful."
None that are liquid. As always, you have lots of big talk, lots of huge plans... and zero cash in the bank, mooching off your in-laws (who are about to boot you to the curb), with a furious wife lured in by outright lies about money you didn't actually have.
If you had executed on these opportunities some three months ago, maybe you would have the money now. Or maybe you already had the money, but spent it on a trip to Tahoe, or invested it in yet another ill-planned investment scheme instead of doing the right thing: providing for your wife and yourself.
Of course, you can't get steady income OR sweet deals when you "shut down, sleep all day..." - which makes me astounded that Y or G place any confidence in you at all.
"Again, I just need to make a plan and focus! Tomorrow is May 1st - a nice round date to start something new."
If by 'focus' you mean execute, all well and good. Unfortunately, a little bit late. Tomorrow is also May 1st -- your deadline to avoid eviction. I hope you have your things packed.
And be careful about your assumptions that G won't kick you out. One of the first things my father taught me about women is that they leave the second they feel they're being taken for granted.
"Enough talking. Going to go get that glass fixed..."
Ah, once again spending on the car instead of rent and other essentials... not because you actually need it (since you have no job, and no houses left to visit), but because you think having a working car is critical to your self-image as an entrepreneur. You could save on both gas and car insurance and ride a bike... but that would preclude you from making your 'sweet deals.'
Sigh. It's hopeless.
Do you know what my name is, Casey? I think the only investment you should be considering right now is a fiddle... because I smell smoke.
Temporary IAFF outage.
34 comments:
First! Murst! Worst!
Worship at my firstness, you slithy toves.
-Northern Renter
?murst?
Bwahahaha!
NR
PS I think that was my first first, and will probably be my last.
I beat The Dude, that's good enough for me!
That traffic has to be NASTY, like the pool muck nasty.
"Are sales slowing down now? Yes. Is it because of a housing bubble? No!" "Over the next five months we'll see news reports of slowing sales, your friends who are selling will tell you how terrible the market is and most people will shy away from purchasing homes. Yet in the spring, the cycle will begin again. Bargains will be found since people who really need to sell will keep their homes on the market, while those who are less serious will remove them. This cycle repeats itself every year."
Doh!
Oops, forgot to attribute that quote to Nigeypoo, 9/15/06.
That is so funny. When you said; "Yet in the spring, the cycle will begin again."
This is what I remembered:
President "Bobby": Mr. Gardner, do you agree with Ben, or do you think that we can stimulate growth through temporary incentives?
[Long pause]
Chance the Gardener: As long as the roots are not severed, all is well. And all will be well in the garden.
President "Bobby": In the garden.
Chance the Gardener: Yes. In the garden, growth has it seasons. First comes spring and summer, but then we have fall and winter. And then we get spring and summer again.
President "Bobby": Spring and summer.
Chance the Gardener: Yes.
President "Bobby": Then fall and winter.
Chance the Gardener: Yes.
Benjamin Rand: I think what our insightful young friend is saying is that we welcome the inevitable seasons of nature, but we're upset by the seasons of our economy.
Chance the Gardener: Yes! There will be growth in the spring!
Benjamin Rand: Hmm!
Chance the Gardener: Hmm!
President "Bobby": Hm. Well, Mr. Gardner, I must admit that is one of the most refreshing and optimistic statements I've heard in a very, very long time.
[Benjamin Rand applauds]
President "Bobby": I admire your good, solid sense. That's precisely what we lack on Capitol Hill.
Ron Steigler: Mr. Gardner, uh, my editors and I have been wondering if you would consider writing a book for us, something about your um, political philosophy, what do you say?
----
Unfortunately Nigel cannot grow up to be President.
"Bad news for bubble bloggers today. Their "world is going to hell" doomsday scenario is falling to pieces." "If you're thinking of buying a home and are put off by fears of a market downturn or being turned down for a loan, don't worry."
Award-winning blog enthusiast, Nigel Swaby 10/16/06
Doh!
No new comments on IAFF. The clock is ticking. No time for a begathon. He's got 24 hours until he has to put up rent or get out... If he's telling us the truth.
"The author completely exposes their ignorance in the final paragraph by claiming the way to get out of a HELOC is, "Unlike Helocs, home-equity loans are usually fixed-rate loans." "Now, home buyers and home sellers, are you going to make decisions about real estate based on the opinions of authors like these? I certainly hope not."
Award-winning incomprehensible sentence structure enthusiast, Nigel Swaby 10/3/06
Unintentionally-ironic Doh!
One of the bestest Nigel quotes ever (next to his Casey Serin shrewdness evaluation):
"I am getting tired of all the spam from posting my email on other sites."
Award-winning link spammer, Nigel Swaby 10/6/06
Actually a begathon tonight with a promise of proceeds to go to Yulia immediately would probably suffice to buy him an extra week or two to come up with more. However if Yulia knows him, and she doubtless does at this point from watching his serious inaction coupled with long conversation with her sister, it would appear that Casey will be moving back in with Mommy and Daddy.
As he said before, "I get free produce from my parents when I visit them every week. They go to the Denio’s farmer’s market in Roseville and buy lots of produce direct from the farmers at a discount.
I (try to) reimburse them for their cost. My mom is happy to help me out and will not let me leave without grabbing a bag of produce and any other food she can give me."
Looks like Mom and Dad will be helipng out a lot more after tomorrow. The real burning question here is, will Galina join him at Mom and Dad's or will she stay with her sister until Casey pulls his shit together? Oh the scenarios...
He's got 24 hours until he has to put up rent or get out...
I'd be surprised if he gets kicked out. I suspect he'll just tap that line of credit over at the corporation . . . he said he wouldn't use the corporate credit for personal expenses, although I suspect his actually wording included the word "try", and we all know what that means.
I vaguely recall something coming up about the corporation getting suspended; if so, then that's probably where the beg-a-thon money went, to get the corporation re-activated so that he could keep tapping its line of credit for vacations and eating out . . . er, whoops, I mean for business trips and business dinners, of course.
Flailing,
Nigel answers to these transgressions with the pat "Hindsight is 20/20. I wrote that eight months ago long before all the shenanigans ensued. What did you write 8 months ago?
Hmmmmm, I believe 8 months ago I was posting on HP that there was an imminent housing crisis that would spare barely a single market.
I also thought 8 months ago that Casey was a complete fool for buying at the top of the market and it was my personal feeling that he would end up this was - without a single house. Although admittedly I thought there was no way a person could be as stupid. I thought he would at least try to BK.
I saw a quick seminar commercial this morning on how to buy foreclosures. Free admission, local hotels, all the usual shenanigans with folks saying how they made 20k in a few hours.
At the end the ad said 'it's win-win'. Sweet. I forgot the website address though.
@ TK
Yeah, I know that will be his response, but nothing is more aggravating than having oneself sounding like a complete dumbass quoted back to oneself, and SLC is like an all-you-can-eat dumbass buffet. Nigeypoo, I hope you enjoy the taste of crow. Eat up, it may be the last meal you have for a while.
But TK you're right, the outcome of IAFF and the housing market is pretty much what haterz have been saying all along.
More Nigelly goodness:
"The Salt Lake Real Estate Blog has been up for three weeks and it's been a great success. Right now there is so much talk and interest in real estate I've struggled to post on a daily basis..." 10/6/06
"Nothing makes me angrier than hearing about inappropriate behavior in the real estate business." 10/20/06
"Casey Serin broke the law by lying on his mortgage applications. There's no doubt about that." 4/10/07
"Casey asked me to partner with him on the website." "In March he came to Salt Lake on the dime of his money partner to investigate another opportunity. While he was here we discussed the web partnership face to face. Once we came to some conclusions, with the first one being for him to get a regular job, an agreement was drawn up." 4/1/07
- Award-winning hypocrisy enthusiast, Nigel Swaby
peripheral visionary,
I predicted that a while ago--using the corporate credit to catch up his rent. Completely justifiable to him, because it's for his home office, after all!
Rent is due tomorrow -- why doesn't Casey sell the POS Jetta, and then walk or take the bus to work? The more he is off of the streets, the safer it is for all concerned.
Still moochin' off the parents, eh? A classic example of economic outpatient care, and look at the huge entitlement mentality that it creates.
"why doesn't Casey sell the POS Jetta, and then walk or take the bus to work?"
'cause Snowflake doesn't work! ROFLMAO!
a few people are putting more work into quoting Award Winning Real Estate Blogger Nigel Swaby and I want to express my appreciation for this work. It took me some time to realize that writing about investing entails a big dose of humility. Nigel wants to swing pom pom's, and above all, disparage and berate those who disagree with his predictions. Of course, over time, even while his predictions fail miserably, he needs them smashed back in his face so the learning process can continue. Thankfully, these outrageous statements are funny to us, so please let's repeat them as jokes to one another. Putting a date with them, or even a url trackback, might keep them in context. great work.
predicted that a while ago--using the corporate credit to catch up his rent. Completely justifiable to him, because it's for his home office, after all!
Oh, so THAT's why he bought the IKEA Furniture?
Man, this guy is dumber than I thought...
I remember the summer after graduating from college. Thought I'd reward myself (a la Casey) and spend the summer at my parents' house... and play basketball and eat Taco Bell everyday... while half-heartedly looking for a job.
Almost two months into this, my dad came into my room and asked when I planned on moving out since this was not the reason they paid for college. I got the message. I had a decent job and was out on my own within the month.
If snowflake was given a kick in the pants/balls by everyone in his family, I'm not sure it would have the same result as mine. Snowflake is too deluded/brainwashed/con artist minded to get his life back on track.
Rent is due tomorrow -- why doesn't Casey sell the POS Jetta, and then walk or take the bus to work?
Sell the Jetta? With the stereo gone it's lost half its value; and Casey lovingly documented its many faults online to further deter any potential buyers.
We did advise him in December to sell the sweet rims, though...
At 8:45 AM, Lost Cause said...
Rent is due tomorrow -- why doesn't Casey sell the POS Jetta, and then walk or take the bus to work? The more he is off of the streets, the safer it is for all concerned.
----
He doesn't have a job. Win-Win!
I believe all the clues show that Yulia is a hardworking single gal. She was probably happy to have some family move in after she bought the nice new spaceous townhouse, and could make good use of the spare room(s) for rent money. I hope the room rent wasn't necessary for her to carry the mortgage. I'm sad for her, an obviously good hearted woman.
Awesome Swaby quotes! I'm LMFAO!
I wouldn't be too quick to claim Yulia and innocent party.
Check the date she bought that place. Was Casey involved or "consulting"?
Did she lie on her loan?
Follow-
Interesting thought.
Nobody can claim any of Casey's family is innocent; they've all been a support system for him through this; and have enabled him to continue. So they're just as much responsible for his mistakes as he is.
I need a question answered before indicting the family. When C&G showed up on Ys doorstep, what was their story? If it was "a couple months, cash flow crunch" then it is hard to turn your own sister away. Surely the answer wasn't; "fraud catching up, seeking to sponge until crimes catch up." That Y is demanding back rent plus 2 months in advance tells me she's caught on to a scheme she had nothing to do with.
Unbelieveable! Casey is now writing about living in his car like it'll be great for his story and he can get lots of media attention out of it! After all, Anya Peters got a book deal out of her experience living in a car!
What an attention whore.
I've been lurking both here and IAFF for nearly three months now... and finally was compelled to post today.
---
#. Lucius Domitius Ahenobarbus
Hi Casey -- long-time lurker (and hater), first time poster.
"Even though I don’t think my sister-in-law is going to kick me out..."
Normal people have a phrase to describe this, Casey -- it's called "calling their bluff." It tends to aggravate people, so I think you should be praying to your Maker that Y does not read this post.
The fact that she is asking for a certified check should be a glaring sign that this is no bluff; it means she's serious on getting her money AND that it's money you have earned as income (as opposed to money you borrowed on credit).
You are on the verge of being evicted, and you are still thinking about entrepreneurship, still thinking about sweet deals.
"I have plenty of opportunities to solve my cashflow problems, pay off all the debt and become successful."
None that are liquid. As always, you have lots of big talk, lots of huge plans... and zero cash in the bank, mooching off your in-laws (who are about to boot you to the curb), with a furious wife lured in by outright lies about money you didn't actually have.
If you had executed on these opportunities some three months ago, maybe you would have the money now. Or maybe you already had the money, but spent it on a trip to Tahoe, or invested it in yet another ill-planned investment scheme instead of doing the right thing: providing for your wife and yourself.
Of course, you can't get steady income OR sweet deals when you "shut down, sleep all day..." - which makes me astounded that Y or G place any confidence in you at all.
"Again, I just need to make a plan and focus! Tomorrow is May 1st - a nice round date to start something new."
If by 'focus' you mean execute, all well and good. Unfortunately, a little bit late. Tomorrow is also May 1st -- your deadline to avoid eviction. I hope you have your things packed.
And be careful about your assumptions that G won't kick you out. One of the first things my father taught me about women is that they leave the second they feel they're being taken for granted.
"Enough talking. Going to go get that glass fixed..."
Ah, once again spending on the car instead of rent and other essentials... not because you actually need it (since you have no job, and no houses left to visit), but because you think having a working car is critical to your self-image as an entrepreneur. You could save on both gas and car insurance and ride a bike... but that would preclude you from making your 'sweet deals.'
Sigh. It's hopeless.
Do you know what my name is, Casey? I think the only investment you should be considering right now is a fiddle... because I smell smoke.
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