Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
Saturday, April 28, 2007
Suggestions Anyone?
What are we going to do with all the extra real estate professionals? Clearly some of them are so idle that their hands have become the devils workshop.
I know a woman who became a realtor during the boom. You know when basically she was telling me I needed to beat out the soccer moms and be there during the day and place a bid above asking. Now she's a stay at home mom. As soon as the market got chilly in NJ she bailed. Also, my best friend's wife took the classes (she's otherwise gainfully employed) and decided that she wouldn't be able to weather the storm solely on commish - the they may need to move in with her parents if she chose to become a full fledged Realty Clerk. Not to mention I was discouraging her the entire time telling her things were going to get bad. Unfortunately she and her husband bought the lies and an overpriced house to boot. They also had their property taxes jacked $6K last year so now they need to get out - but the house isn't worth nearly what they paid. I hated to say I told them so, but now they understand and realize they're going to have to axe their current realtor and do FSBO if they hope to break even.
@ the Dude, An analysis by FMW. In the world of numbers, you are actually a -one, Rob Dawg's Thread topic is first and the anonopussy Tied for first with Dawg. So, actually Dawg & annopussy are tied for first because you beat him. You are DQ.
Unlike Casey, I'm open to suggestions. Though I just closed one deal and have two more closing in the next six weeks, the market has slowed down to a crawl.
I don't know what all those professionals should do, but I know what some of them are doing in my 'hood.
One guy is now in the wholesale (? Hum?) furniture biz-- you know, those signs you see posted on light poles--"queen size pillow top matress, still in the plastic, $299!"
Sweeeet deals!
Hum, seriously, this is my Saturday morning: currently slurping on a decent cup of East Coast corporate chain coffee--not Sbux--whilst surfing on the free wi-fi!
Snowflake be praised!
(Oops. Except I'm actually working today. Riiggghhht.)
Dude you're right - we got nothing on ya now. If you're before Dawg, you are the firstest anyone has ever been. That being said, I am Murst! this morning for the first time. Yay me!
I'm a Realtor in a small (population-wise) county in WA state. Unlike many areas of the country, sales have remained fairly stable over the past year.
But to give you an idea of the numbers involved in Real Estate... here in this county, there are about 600 licensed Real Estate Agents. In 2006, there were 2,200 residential Real Estate transactions.
Total commission for each transaction averages from $5,000 - $7,000. And that's the total commission. If you work for one of the large commercial brokerages (C21, ReMax, etc.) - that brokerage will take 30% to 50% of your total commission for each transaction.
Now consider that there are about two-dozen "star" agents in this county who make a comfortable living (20+ transactions per year).
Do the math, and it's pretty depressing for the vast majority of agents. Office fees, cell phone, gasoline, Realtor dues, MLS fees and even minimal advertising can quickly erase any sense of "income." Heck... the local ReMax office charges over $2,000 per month ... just to hang your license in the office! (Somebody has to pay for those TV ads during the SuperBowl...)
There are a lot of hungry Real Estate agents out there. Call 'em "clerks", call them lazy, incompetent, whatever you want. But it's a damn tough way to make a living.
I'm not telling the real real estate agents anything new and hopefully they understand this doesn't apply to them.
These "mayfly agents" are a far worse problem than we are planning for. Not only were they each their own best customers but the ripple effects are going to be nasty. These are the people leasing BMW X5s, taking the Disney cruises. They live paycheck to paycheck and will be in denial far longer than prudence dictates. They thought being insiders meant they could never lose.
Maybe they could compete with our 'extralegal settlers' for all those sweet orange and lettuce picking jobs. I hear there are plenty of primo truck driving positions open, too.
I want to make a public challenge to Dawg to put up his forums.
I realize that in doing so Rob will loose™ control of topics that are discussed there,but ever since The Dawg has directed his blog commentary towards KC he has,at best, held tenuous control over this diverse group of posters.
It is my understanding that blogs are meant to be about the author and/or their take on society.This blog has evolved into something other than that.A story such as KC's begs a free flowing discussion that can never be accomplished in the limited format of a blog.
RDawg,please,please,please, don't follows KC's lead by trying to gain control of the direction of this larger-than-life story.
Maybe the Realtards and Mortgage Brokers (Hi Nigel) can ask what .com stock brokers did (you know, the guys that were on CNBC telling us ALLLLLL about the "New Economy").
Or, they can invest in a brilliant patented Foreclosure Avoidance System (FAS) coming soon to a free blog host near you.
@the Forum Foisters.... Look, I agree forums would be nice but I wish everyone would get off of the Dawg's back about them. Don't forget - this is HIS blog. It's not like we're paying for the privilege to learn about urban sprawl & fliptards. Be gracious, appreciate what we have been given and if you are really jonesing for forums...consider building them yourself.
Now...off to refresh my Tanq & Bitter Lemon. Ah, Spring is here!
I played rugby in college. The football bit is always a little confusing to me. In fact football needs to bring back a few of the old rules. I know it is too much to ask for the ball to actually be touched down for a touch down because the toe drag in the corner receptions are so exciting but how about the old rule that the point(s) after be taken straight out from the point of scoring? No more automatic 1 point converisions. And what's up with holding?
My workers did not show up today. I guess I'll have to work on something else. Hint hint.
"Borders and Best Buy still need workers. They can go back to their original jobs."
How many of the retail outlets built to cater to the deserted subdivisions we got from this boom will be open a year from now?
These jobs may not be there waiting for them...aw, poor things...the only downside is they'll all be sucking the unemployment tit dry for another year or so. Happened in the .com bust in sf - all the kiddies who thought they could learn Flash and get a 100K job a year held out quite a while refusing to be "underemployed", and by the time they got a clue and started looking for anything else, those jobs were gone. Sucks to be them. I just wish they'd move back home faster!
One of the funniest things I experienced from the .com bust was talking to freinds who were looking for experienced designers - requirements were the standard 3-4 years experience professionally with Photoshop, Illustrator, Indesign or Quark (or both), and 3-4 years in 4 color printing. This is minimum. They had 19 year olds applying who knew a little flash, a little dreamweaver, thought they could compete. What a laugh.
Kinda like Casey thinking he can run with the big dawgs in real estate...how little does he realize how hard the real deal laughs their collective asses off over his exploits and nerve.
C. Serin - Senior Technical Consultant, Avoiding Foreclosures of Norther California. Personal Assistant to N. Swaby - CEO and Inventor of the Avoiding Foreclosure System.
"Not only are we running the whole thing, we're clients!"
The question of what the out-of-work people from the real estate implosion will do is a serious one. I have the feeling that, in even a few months' time, there will be a tidal wave of out-of-work mortgage brokers and real estate agents desperately trying to get into other (currently) lucrative sectors of the finance industry, such as investment banking, commercial banking, stock brokerage, etc. Real estate heading down, market heading up . . . it's a no-brainer (and these folks specialize in no-brainer lines of work)--even Casey has been talking about stock investments.
It's an especially critical issue for me, as I'm looking to make the move from consulting (ugh, too . . . consultant-ish) to investment banking at the moment. I'm moving as fast as I can to get into a reasonably secure position (translation: anything not related to mortgages or asset-backed securities) before recruiters at the banks and brokerage firms get deluged with applications originating from California from people who have lots of "experience" with "handling" finances (as in, they've spent the last five years helping people get deep in debt.) Of course, the vast majority of the loan brokers and real estate agents don't have anything resembling a relevant education, so it's doubtful as to whether they'll be able to find serious jobs.
At this point, anybody who's in real estate who doesn't have serious work experience and/or a serious education might be best off sitting down and memorizing the words, "Hi, and welcome to Wal-Mart."
@ flying monkey warrior Fred said... Ps. The prime directive sucks.
SOOO FUNNY.
I think that's in reference to Portal of Evil. That's a site about trainwreck watching and web travesties. Their prime directive is to read but do not comment or contact the individuals or sites they feature. It'sactually pretty cool that he made it on POE. I would consider it an honor.
What are we going to do with all the extra real estate professionals? Clearly some of them are so idle that their hands have become the devils workshop.
40 comments:
FIRST
Borders and Best Buy still need workers. They can go back to their original jobs.
Murst!
Read it and weep you bunch of loosers.....
How did I post my FIRST one minute BEFORE the topic time stamp? Damn, I am awesome....and FIRST.
Fold spindle or mutilate them.
te, he
I know a woman who became a realtor during the boom. You know when basically she was telling me I needed to beat out the soccer moms and be there during the day and place a bid above asking. Now she's a stay at home mom. As soon as the market got chilly in NJ she bailed. Also, my best friend's wife took the classes (she's otherwise gainfully employed) and decided that she wouldn't be able to weather the storm solely on commish - the they may need to move in with her parents if she chose to become a full fledged Realty Clerk. Not to mention I was discouraging her the entire time telling her things were going to get bad. Unfortunately she and her husband bought the lies and an overpriced house to boot. They also had their property taxes jacked $6K last year so now they need to get out - but the house isn't worth nearly what they paid. I hated to say I told them so, but now they understand and realize they're going to have to axe their current realtor and do FSBO if they hope to break even.
@ the Dude,
An analysis by FMW.
In the world of numbers, you are actually a -one, Rob Dawg's Thread topic is first and the anonopussy Tied for first with Dawg.
So, actually Dawg & annopussy are tied for first because you beat him. You are DQ.
Dude Dawg anonopussy TK
-1 0 1st & 1st 2nd
6:59 am 7:00am 7:00am 7:01am
te he
Unlike Casey, I'm open to suggestions. Though I just closed one deal and have two more closing in the next six weeks, the market has slowed down to a crawl.
I don't know what all those professionals should do, but I know what some of them are doing in my 'hood.
One guy is now in the wholesale (? Hum?) furniture biz-- you know, those signs you see posted on light poles--"queen size pillow top matress, still in the plastic, $299!"
Sweeeet deals!
Hum, seriously, this is my Saturday morning: currently slurping on a decent cup of East Coast corporate chain coffee--not Sbux--whilst surfing on the free wi-fi!
Snowflake be praised!
(Oops. Except I'm actually working today. Riiggghhht.)
I've elevated FIRSTNESS to levels only dreamed of by loosers.
-1 = Subzero a la The Running Man.
Sincerely,
Subzero Running Man Dude
I've elevated FIRSTNESS to levels only dreamed of by loosers.
-1 = Subzero a la The Running Man.
*********
LOL DUDE.
There's always work in Iraq (unfortunately.)
Dude you're right - we got nothing on ya now. If you're before Dawg, you are the firstest anyone has ever been. That being said, I am Murst! this morning for the first time. Yay me!
I'm a Realtor in a small (population-wise) county in WA state. Unlike many areas of the country, sales have remained fairly stable over the past year.
But to give you an idea of the numbers involved in Real Estate... here in this county, there are about 600 licensed Real Estate Agents. In 2006, there were 2,200 residential Real Estate transactions.
Total commission for each transaction averages from $5,000 - $7,000. And that's the total commission. If you work for one of the large commercial brokerages (C21, ReMax, etc.) - that brokerage will take 30% to 50% of your total commission for each transaction.
Now consider that there are about two-dozen "star" agents in this county who make a comfortable living (20+ transactions per year).
Do the math, and it's pretty depressing for the vast majority of agents. Office fees, cell phone, gasoline, Realtor dues, MLS fees and even minimal advertising can quickly erase any sense of "income." Heck... the local ReMax office charges over $2,000 per month ... just to hang your license in the office! (Somebody has to pay for those TV ads during the SuperBowl...)
There are a lot of hungry Real Estate agents out there. Call 'em "clerks", call them lazy, incompetent, whatever you want. But it's a damn tough way to make a living.
They could always contact this guy for some sweet action. Maybe Casey should call this guy. Maybe Casey IS this guy...
Jim,
Not to get to specific....but what neck of the woods are you, in WA?
Clark, Pierce, Chelan, Spokane?
I'm not telling the real real estate agents anything new and hopefully they understand this doesn't apply to them.
These "mayfly agents" are a far worse problem than we are planning for. Not only were they each their own best customers but the ripple effects are going to be nasty. These are the people leasing BMW X5s, taking the Disney cruises. They live paycheck to paycheck and will be in denial far longer than prudence dictates. They thought being insiders meant they could never lose.
Maybe they could compete with our 'extralegal settlers' for all those sweet orange and lettuce picking jobs. I hear there are plenty of primo truck driving positions open, too.
Those truck driving jobs are gone as soon as the Mexican NAFTA truck "experiment" goes into effect.
Those truck driving jobs are gone as soon as the Mexican NAFTA truck "experiment" goes into effect.
*************
Yep.
I was talking about Iraq.
I want to make a public challenge to Dawg to put up his forums.
I realize that in doing so Rob will loose™ control of topics that are discussed there,but ever since The Dawg has directed his blog commentary towards KC he has,at best, held tenuous control over this diverse group of posters.
It is my understanding that blogs are meant to be about the author and/or their take on society.This blog has evolved into something other than that.A story such as KC's begs a free flowing discussion that can never be accomplished in the limited format of a blog.
RDawg,please,please,please, don't follows KC's lead by trying to gain control of the direction of this larger-than-life story.
SET THE FORUMS FREE !!!
@The Dude
Skagit County.
Maybe the Realtards and Mortgage Brokers (Hi Nigel) can ask what .com stock brokers did (you know, the guys that were on CNBC telling us ALLLLLL about the "New Economy").
Or, they can invest in a brilliant patented Foreclosure Avoidance System (FAS) coming soon to a free blog host near you.
Skagit is an awesome place......hopefully, the Californicators don't screw it up like they have elsewhere.
@the Forum Foisters....
Look, I agree forums would be nice but I wish everyone would get off of the Dawg's back about them.
Don't forget - this is HIS blog. It's not like we're paying for the privilege to learn about urban sprawl & fliptards. Be gracious, appreciate what we have been given and if you are really jonesing for forums...consider building them yourself.
Now...off to refresh my Tanq & Bitter Lemon. Ah, Spring is here!
Rob, how about a post about the draft going on right now.
Let's go BUCS!!!!!
I played rugby in college. The football bit is always a little confusing to me. In fact football needs to bring back a few of the old rules. I know it is too much to ask for the ball to actually be touched down for a touch down because the toe drag in the corner receptions are so exciting but how about the old rule that the point(s) after be taken straight out from the point of scoring? No more automatic 1 point converisions. And what's up with holding?
My workers did not show up today. I guess I'll have to work on something else. Hint hint.
"Borders and Best Buy still need workers. They can go back to their original jobs."
LOL! So true!
"As I kept reading his story, I realized he's very intelligent and pretty shrewd about reaching his goal of avoiding foreclosure," Swaby added."
Dawg said: "I played rugby in college"
This explains a lot. Football w/o pads is nutz.....
Recently seen bumper sticker:
Give blood....play rugby.
LOL LOL LOL LOL
*********
Alpha Dawg,
I just read this post on IAFF and I have to post it here!
Fred said...
Ps.
The prime directive sucks.
SOOO FUNNY.
Hey, I have it!
Casey could go squat at his Burdett after he gets kicked out.
@The Dude:
I played rugby and football. Rugby is rough, but American football is much rougher.
The rules of the game make the hits a lot harder. In rugby, the object is to strip the ballcarrier. In American football, you knock him the fuck out.
"Borders and Best Buy still need workers. They can go back to their original jobs."
How many of the retail outlets built to cater to the deserted subdivisions we got from this boom will be open a year from now?
These jobs may not be there waiting for them...aw, poor things...the only downside is they'll all be sucking the unemployment tit dry for another year or so. Happened in the .com bust in sf - all the kiddies who thought they could learn Flash and get a 100K job a year held out quite a while refusing to be "underemployed", and by the time they got a clue and started looking for anything else, those jobs were gone. Sucks to be them. I just wish they'd move back home faster!
One of the funniest things I experienced from the .com bust was talking to freinds who were looking for experienced designers - requirements were the standard 3-4 years experience professionally with Photoshop, Illustrator, Indesign or Quark (or both), and 3-4 years in 4 color printing. This is minimum. They had 19 year olds applying who knew a little flash, a little dreamweaver, thought they could compete. What a laugh.
Kinda like Casey thinking he can run with the big dawgs in real estate...how little does he realize how hard the real deal laughs their collective asses off over his exploits and nerve.
Casey's Career Options:
CIA - couldn't make it worse
Male model - shudder
Cable TV installer - he already knows how to not show up
Used car salesman - got the gab
...others?
C. Serin - Senior Technical Consultant, Avoiding Foreclosures of Norther California. Personal Assistant to N. Swaby - CEO and Inventor of the Avoiding Foreclosure System.
"Not only are we running the whole thing, we're clients!"
The question of what the out-of-work people from the real estate implosion will do is a serious one. I have the feeling that, in even a few months' time, there will be a tidal wave of out-of-work mortgage brokers and real estate agents desperately trying to get into other (currently) lucrative sectors of the finance industry, such as investment banking, commercial banking, stock brokerage, etc. Real estate heading down, market heading up . . . it's a no-brainer (and these folks specialize in no-brainer lines of work)--even Casey has been talking about stock investments.
It's an especially critical issue for me, as I'm looking to make the move from consulting (ugh, too . . . consultant-ish) to investment banking at the moment. I'm moving as fast as I can to get into a reasonably secure position (translation: anything not related to mortgages or asset-backed securities) before recruiters at the banks and brokerage firms get deluged with applications originating from California from people who have lots of "experience" with "handling" finances (as in, they've spent the last five years helping people get deep in debt.) Of course, the vast majority of the loan brokers and real estate agents don't have anything resembling a relevant education, so it's doubtful as to whether they'll be able to find serious jobs.
At this point, anybody who's in real estate who doesn't have serious work experience and/or a serious education might be best off sitting down and memorizing the words, "Hi, and welcome to Wal-Mart."
@ flying monkey warrior
Fred said...
Ps.
The prime directive sucks.
SOOO FUNNY.
I think that's in reference to Portal of Evil. That's a site about trainwreck watching and web travesties. Their prime directive is to read but do not comment or contact the individuals or sites they feature. It'sactually pretty cool that he made it on POE. I would consider it an honor.
forums just won't be as fun as you all think. i like tracking 12 casey blogs. it works ok for me.
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