This is the "Foriegn Exchange Dawg." Cute isn't he? This little pup had an interesting Q1 '07. Apparently things weren't so bad because the guy decided it was a good time to buy a bunch of US (Boeing) state of the art fuel efficient aircraft today and pay for them with some of the US dollars they hold now tomorrow. I'm not comfortable with that.
103 comments:
FIRST
Three outta Four......another FIRST for the FIRST Master
Awesome Dude. We may have to retire the crown, man.
So. What are your thoughts that the recent aircraft and other big ticket purchases by foriegn interests are nothing more than a dollar squeeze?
Rob, could you provide a link or two to your source material so we can comment more intelligently on it?
Many negative things may truthfully be said about the Chinese government. That it is stupid enough to buy the Airbus A380, however, is not one of them.
Interesting take on the A vs B wars. I hadn't thought of it that way.
More information please Alpha Dawg.
I like statues and I like dogs, and I really like to read about China and America.
HEY FAT ASS,
YOU DELETING MY POSTS IS PRECISELY WHAT IS GOING TO KEEP ME COMING BACK EVERY SINGLE DAY.
FUCKING PUSSY BOI.
They are secretly dumping US Dollars by the fist full in China, I reckon.
If I was holding that depreciating green toilet paper in reserves, I'd trade it for something tangible too!
That fiat dollar is going down.
Do any of you read urbansurvival.com and the web bots?
Interesting.
caps are rude.
urbansurvival.com
-------------
Yep I have it bookmarked.
I'm like the, you know, the KING of FIRST....you bunch of loosers.
About the planes....
Airbus is a freakin' joke. Can't deliver squat, even with massive subsidies by the EU. Paying for Boeing's 777 and 787 with dollars is no big deal. I'd rather they circulate dollars they are holding rather than keep shoving Euros down everyone's throat. What's the problem with paying for U.S. goods with U.S. currency?
P.S. The Airbus A380 will be the 21st century version of the Concorde....and THAT was some success, wasn't it.
Also explains how some of the Dow components are having blowout earnings. Really good overseas sales. Caterpillar and Ford are having great overseas growth and taking advantage of the FX rates.
Really fun gold, US Dollar Bubble and Fed Bank Rants: Ricahrd Daughty Archives
The Mogambo Guru
A lot's been said about McD's stock and earnings lately and they get a full 50% of their profits from oversea's markets.......
In a couple of days, we'll have the annual May Day parades; especially in that dog's home country. Let's see if they showcase their new "homegrown" fighter. I doubt there will be much sabre rattling, but I'd like to see what's new.
@flyingmonkeywarrior
Yea I like Mogambo, but he quit writing....:(
Anyone take his advice? I have not bought an ounce of gold since Dec 05, instead I have purchased silver.
Not a lot, my pm purchases are no more than 5k per year, as I am not THE AWARD WINNING BLOGGER and REAL ESTATE INVESTOR from SLC.
I regard it as savings or insurance.
Just when you thought he could fall no further, the little scum bag is seeding his own blog with crap like this. He is a street musician, throwing some coins into the guitar case before he plays, to prime the pump for more contributions:
______________________________
#
160. sisb (sean)
April 28th, 2007 at 3:16 am
Casey: I do feel badly about your day today and at this point your back is against the wall.
I will paypal you $20. Hell, you can use it for Macaroni Grill if you’d like. Might as well have one last harrah before you are forced to knuckle down and work like the rest of us.
I am very serious about my offer. No strings attached. Just email me at […] and I will pay pal you $20.
Consider it my contribution for the several months I have enjoyed this blog.
______________________________
JULES
Put it in your pocket, it's yours.
Now with the rest of them wallets
and the register, that makes this a
pretty successful little score.
VINCENT
Jules, if you give this nimrod
fifteen hundred buck, I'm gonna
shoot 'em on general principle.
...
but he quit writing.
___________
No, he quit e mailing his link and Angry stories to other publishers, he still writes. You have to go to his sight. I made his new stuff and his sight clickable for you.
Happy?
Learn Mandarin if you already haven't.
You're going to need it in the future.
yeah, I feel "endgame" is upon us.
Scylla of hyperinflation or whirlpool deflation of Charybdis. Ben and the Fed are not Argonauts, so dodging both is not an option.
Interestingly, Oddessus picked Scylla because that way he lost a few men instead of loosing the whole ship to Charybis. The parallel -- Ben will inflate and "sacrifice" savers instead of sinking the whole economy in a deflationary depression. invest accordingly.
oh and Casey, when Bubba says he's interested in teaching you Greek,
mythology is likely not what he had in mind.
"the Modesto cess-pool incident... show[ed] Casey’s utter inability to research options, make a plan, then actually carry it out: sorry, but putting a stick in the water doesn’t qualify as carrying out any WORK to fix the problem..."
_____________________________
I lol'ed!!!!
The Modesto Cess-Pool Incident = MCPI
Kids studying the case study in 2020 mortgage fraud class:
"Yeah, I remember when KC's car got filched... but was that before the MCPI, or after...."
BWAHAHAHAHAHA
FMW
I have that site bookmarked from long ago, nothing new since 4-13 (Friday 13) I ASSumed he quit writng.
No wonder I am not the AWBASRIFSLC
(award winning blogger and successful realestate investor from salt lake city)
The malodorous stench wafting from Snapdragon Lane can be smelled over 20 miles downwind, largely due to the fact that Mr. Casey Serin hasn't bathed in over four months.
That's why Yulia is kicking him out. A hundred bucks also says Casey doesn't flush the toilet after he's done, he figures someone else can do it...
A forum sure would be nice... didn't someone claim they had a domain all set, i.e. "sweetbankrupcy" or some such? pHpBB is free...
I am not saying I don't love the exurb vibe and posters, just that it's tough to follow the threads sometimes in the stream of multiple consciousness fashion that things tend to unfold....
Debating Nigel calls for a blog to rip down his bonkers economics. But I have better things to do than grade community college rhetoric. Here's an xpost he'll delete, though it's nail-head accurate. I think someone said they didn't think Nigel ever bought or sold a stock, and I bet that's nearly true. His theories are so fundamentally wrong that he would incur consistent losses if he invested based on them. xposted:
The Fed is increasing the money supply by 11% each year, Nigel. So stock prices go up, but that's because the dollar goes down, down, down. In 100 years, the value of the dollar has decreased by more than 95%. In the 100 years before that, he hardly devalued at all. You want to talk about complex stuff. Amibition is neat but a little knowledge is a dangerous thing.
Sun make algae.
A pleather jacket is a dangerous thing.
The reason Swaby uses so much "Axe Effect" is to cover up the fact that he smells like a pile of rancid cow manure after it's been baking in the heat for a couple days.
Byron Goates said that Swaby smells like he bathes in month-old urine, and shampoos what little hair he has left with liquified horse manure.
Rancid cow manure? That is Chanel #5
compared to his actual odor. Smellimagine this, a greasy month old dead fish rotting on some distant salt lake city shore.
The oily odiferousness oozing from slimey nigeys every pore.
"I need a creative solution to paying my sister-in-law rent money for last 2 months and figuring out a way to deal with the 2 month pre-payment the wants.
For those wondering, the beg-a-thon money and CD job money WAS gonna go for rent but somehow disappeared for some other needed expenses.
I need to track them expenses better, down to every (clean) penny. That was one of my 2007 goals and I’m still working on implementing it."
(shakes head)
OK, so what were the other needed expenses?
The big trend in the Oil and Gas business has been oil/gas supplies and service charges no longer being exchanged in USD. Euro's and native currencies (Indian Rupee, Chinese RMB) have become far more acceptable. I have watched the USD yo-yo against the Singapore dollar for over 15 years - it's a sinking currency (the USD in the long term). It was 3:1 in the 1980's - today 1.5:1
Hey my post rhymes, maybe I should get another award.
Lou, Ikea and a vacation! Are you naive at this stage?
OK, so what were the other needed expenses?
* Highlights
* New laptop
* Cable/cell phone/PDA internet bills (business expenses)
* Murse fitting polish
* Special murse detergent
* Murse insurance
* Murse World subscription
Li'l Dandelion takes the term "spender" (as in "saver"/"spender") to a whole new level. Money flows through his hands like water, and that includes all available credit, family favors, and other mooched acts of kindness. If someone gave him $1,000,000, it'd be gone in six months with nothing to show for it other than a bunch of empty promises about "good things coming."
Me, you'd call me a "saver" since my inflows exceed my outflows, but I'm not a tightwad. I try to evaluate the value that a product will provide me with the price. I have (very) cheap cookware because I'm not into cooking. I have a nice desktop and a nice portable computer because they are items that I use very frequently, and therefore, represent good values for me, personally. My computer desk, on the other hand, was very cheap, and isn't that aesthetically pleasing, but I could not find anything else, at any price, with a more efficient layout. After three years, it's showing its age, but considering the use I've gotten out of it, I still think it was a good deal. These types of evaluations (value for money, both objective and as it applies to you, personally; as well as keeping total cash outlays below total cash inflows) are completely lost on KC...
Ogg grunts truth......
Murse supplies and accessories are a must....a murse must.
After hearing me curse at the computer screen every time I read Snowflake's blog for the last several months, The Spouse has now officially joined in the sideshow and posted his first comment at IAFF tonight.
Casey's latest comment is just too infuriating .... what on earth could be a more important bill than keeping an effing ROOF over his effing HEAD?
(yes, I know, this is Casey we're talking about, a wheatgrass shot and keeping the cellphone turned on probably seemed more pressing.)
Haterz!
Quit ridiculing my prognosis that Casey is a shrewd and intelligent investor, fully capable of avoiding foreclosure.
I was merely asskissing and click whoring, legally I think it's called "puffery" cause no one of reasonable intelligence believes this shit. Well except for my customers, they are screwed, but it was good for me.
The US is the world's second largest exporter, being only recently passed up by Germany.
The US is also the world's 3rd largest producer of oil.
Chances are there will be another oil glut as well, especially if there is a recession.
Per the Legendary Nigel "NO Comment" Swaby at DHC:
he's very intelligent
and pretty shrewd
about reaching his goal
of avoiding foreclosure
-Hindsight is 20/20. I wrote that eight months ago long before all the shenanigans ensued. What did you write 8 months ago?
Nigel,
I think that most of us were writing stuff like-
-Get a job
-Pay your bills
-Fix your houses
-File BK
-Get another job
-Sell the Blue Ball of Incompetence
-Nigel Swaby is an idiot
-Stop buying $39 smoothies
At some point we realized that Casey was a lazy scammer and all constructive advice would be ignored so we quit dispensing it with any sincerity. You, on the other hand, started having dinner with the guy.
SUPER ULTRA MEGA CASEY
I'll take a stab at the Whack-A-Mole challenge from Nigel. Here's what I told him back in September and October:
-Take down the blog and try to maintain as small a profile as possible so as to not attract the attention of any politically ambitious DA, US attorney, or other law enforcement officer who might consider his prosecution as an opportunity to gain publicity for him/herself;
- His goals should simply be saving his houses and staying out of prison;
-To that end, he needed to go completely legitimate and not do anything blatantly illegal that would further impair his pretty weak legal defense of "I didn't know that fraud was a crime";
- As bad as things seemed financially, life would be a lot worse if he lost the support of his friends and family;
- To that end, his most important monthly bill was his rent to Yulia because $600/month was much better than anything he could find in this area and that keeping the SIL happy was key to saving his marriage.
- Cancel the cell phone and eliminate all frivolous expenses (JJ, MG, etc) or at least don't boast about it online;
- Get a job--any job--if for no other reason than to appear more sympathetic in a future debt exam or sentencing hearing;
- Recognize that the properties are a sunk cost and put time, energy, and money to more productive ends;
- Abandon the silly attempt of "saving" Galina's credit and instead realize that it was shot to hell with the Dallas foreclosure (ie, another sunk cost) and instead start saving up for a legal defense fund (if he never needed it, great than they'd have seed money to buy their first house in several years);
- Start negotiating with creditors to reduce unsecured debt burden SIGNIFICANTLY--but this was only possible if he could promise and deliver consistent minimums and that having a job and ponying up a few months of payments was the key for them to take this attempt seriously;
-He and Galina needed to resign themselves to the idea that they would both need to be working some very long hours in some very boring jobs for the better part of the next decade in order to avoid bankruptcy. And if they were unwilling to do that, then they needed to declare BK immediately or live underground.
None of these ideas were novel. I (and hundreds of different people) posted this type of advice, only to see Casey ignore it completely. Most of us realized completely that there was absolutely no chance that he could avoid foreclosure even through a short sale because he had paid way over market for all of them and it was a rapidly declining market.
Would the Serin's problems have disappeared if he had followed this advice to the letter? Absolutely not, but they'd be on their way toward redemption.
On the other hand, he has not shown the he's "very intelligent" or "pretty shrewd." He's not an idiot, but his intelligence (or any other talent, for that matter) is nothing remarkable. Except for maybe a dangerous capacity for self-delusion--but that's a character flaw that got him into this whole mess, not a special ability that was going to be useful in allowing him to escape from this mess.
Man, even I have to bow the the "Dude". Way to go..
I missed the Realtor thead today because I was out showing. This market is gonna seperate the wheat from the chafe fo shizzle. I bust my ass and hustle to earn. I see slacker agents flaming out all around me simply because they don't wanna get up before 10am, hit the phone and pound the pavement. I've started calling them Casey and Galina. They don't want to do shit and expect leads to just rain down from the heavens to pay for their leased RX 350's and SBUX. When I tell them that coffee is for closers, they don't even know what the fuck I'm talking about. Next agent I hire is gonna get mandatory training watching Glen Garry Glen Ross and Boiler Room. Fucking piker slackers...
Hi Rob Dawg,
To stay on your original topic I believe this trend will continue. The US has allowed the dollar to deflate (the Fed should have increased rates again and signal this as well) and now a flood of dollars will come in and buy everything that isn't nailed down (as well as stuff that is nailed down.)
This will make things increasingly expensive for Americans... have you noticed this already? I am a US Citizen living abroad with savings in USD and am watching my purchasing power go down. I am playing contrarian and waiting for the inevitable bounce. When I convert things back in to USD I feel the effect of reduced buying power to a strong degree.
Ironically by not raising the rates under the guise of helping the American consumer, the Fed will still nevertheless produce the same effect through their inactions.
It may hold up the housing market (in devalued foreign ownership) but people will now rent from foreigners. Well done Ben, you've now made the USA the bitch of the world and sold out the middle class and poor. We've all got pwned.
-Big Cheese
This will make things increasingly expensive for Americans... have you noticed this already?
I've noticed that foods that uses corn products are more expensive, and I chalk that up to the stupid corn ethanol law. Gas is more too. Other than that, no, I haven't noticed an increase. When I go to my local Best Buy or Walmart, every other item is the same or cheaper. TV's, computers, iPod's, bikes, clothes, you name it. The stuff from China and Vietnam is getting even cheaper. Cars are cheaper, and it goes without saying that houses are cheaper.
Gas is pushing $3.40 today a gallon at my local fill-up joint. That is NOT cheaper.
Lou M,
Exactly, products made in China, Malaysia, Vietnam, etc. keep getting cheaper yet they typically aren't basic items one buys on a regular basis like groceries, gas, electricity, etc.
Around here groceries have become increasingly more expensive over the past 5 or so years - so it doesn't appear to be the result of the corn/ethanol factor. Also, we pay more for gas than most of the country despite the fact that much of it is refined here.
"As I kept reading his story, I realized he's very intelligent and pretty shrewd about reaching his goal of avoiding foreclosure," Nigel Swaby added.
Ogg,
Please don't remind us of the Swaby and his diarrhea of the blogs and brain. Why doesn't he just go away now?
What we need to do is merge. China could become the 51st state, or we could become another Chinese province. Suddenly, our current account deficit would be a lot less. The Chinese are better savers than Americans, so our personal savings rate would increase. Win-Win!!
Crazy! I mean like so many positive waves maybe we can't lose! You're on!
what was the post that Tim from MBA had to apologize for and then never showed up in EN again? does anyone have a link? thanks
Business Week details the coming problems well (see www.businessweek.com) so why should I believe an idiot like Swaby on economics? He's a freaking idiot who loves to remind us he's "optimistic" and the rest of us are "negative" or "haters."
Bald sumbitch. Business Week, Nigel, has more knowledge of the national economics than a pissant wannabe SLC mortgage broker.
@segfault
Sounds like me, brudda. I opted out of the "gotta have it" consumerism a few years ago, I had a moment of clarity packing to move to another Looser™ apartment that I simply had too much crap that I never used and really did'nt want.
Since then I've taken a zen-like approach to my belongings. If I use it, I keep it. If I don't, it goes to Goodwill, friends who could use it and need it, or I throw it out. Between the freinds and Goodwill, I don't throw much out.
I get antsy now when I have too much "stuff", I'm gearing up for another round of "What Don't I Need?". I get brutal too.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not cheap, either. When I buy something, I research it, make sure it's good quality and will last, and I will pay a little extra for style. But, I'm not above waiting for sales, buying last year's model....or simply doing without. If I want something, I research it. I think about it. If, after a month, I still want it, then I start looking for the best deals. If you really work, you can find incredible deals, especially if it's not the newest bestest thing out.
I live within my means, and I live *well*. The money I save by not buying dvds I'll watch once and then sit on a shelf collecting dust, magazines with 15 minutes of content and the rest ads, toys and gadgets I'll never use, by doing things myself instead of paying someone else, I can afford to indulge now and then...and knowing I have money to burn most of the time is the best feeling in the world. I may not have a flashy car or McMansion, but I do have a nice I've kept up, I have a nice apartment in a good area, and I don't owe anyone beyond my monthly bills, which can be paid with less than two weeks pay, including rent. I splurge on little things, like my coffeepot and grinder - they're good quality, imported, and yes, they make a better pot of coffee. (Especially the grind - no blade grinders in my house!)
I don't care what other people think, i really don't. I don't buy designer clothes, I don't buy a car to be "better" somehow (take your BMWs and shove 'em), and I don't flaunt what i do have.
Plus, less "stuff" is easier to take care of. The less cleaning I have to do, the better.
Those that fall for the consumeristic cult we ave in the society are doomed to fail. There will always be something new each week you don't have, and the manufacturers are counting on you falling for the hype. People who care about what you own are playing a game based on low self esteem - do you really think what the Casey's and Nigels of the world think? Nigel wears a replica watch to try and create a "message" (that he can't back up), I wear my father's trusty old Timex when I do wear a watch, because of what it means to me. I could go buy a real Rolex tomorrow, but to me, it's a waste of money, anyone who buys a Rolex either has that kind of money to burn, or is trying to prove something. I don't play that game anymore. What, it tells time *better*? No, it shows you have to impress people with "stuff", because *you*, the person you are, fails to impress.
Take that to heart, Nigey Pooh. I see right through your replica Rolex and fake designer jacket and off the rack Target khakis. Tsk.
Lost Cause -
Interesting perspective - the U.S. is the world's second largest exporter, if you only ignore what it imports - sounds like the sort of perspective Casey would endorse.
The same applies to your 'world's third largest producer' - if you simply ignore the amount it imports in excess of its own production.
I bet you are the sort that says 'NO DEAL' when reality comes knocking.
Keep thinking those happy thoughts - it keeps America Nr. 1 in the eyes of Americans.
But if you read German, you may wish to see what the Spiegel is reporting - http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,472405,00.html
Let's just say the Chinese aren't planning are buying that much from Boeing or Airbus in the future. And if you think Airbus is improperly helped in the marketplace, your reaction to the Chinese penetrating a new market should be enlightening. Of course, as the Chinese are the paper owners of hundreds of billions of dollars, they could care less what Americans think anyways, at least if you are a Marxist who believes that capital is the determining political element in a capitalist system.
When the Chinese start 'exporting' excess workers, I expect it will be in the full framework of a legally binding agreement. After all, they are already landlords of much valuable American real estate.
Sticking with the subject, my concern is what does China do with the dollars they are holding when they are being devalued at about 11% (growth in M3)? I think I've already said this but what is there to spend the money on except stock, metals or switching to other currencies? Only a couple of other major currencies pay more interest (£, Aussie $ maybe?). I don't think Chinese investors will just go out on a spending spree with their dollars, they will be careful and selective. In a few years time we could be waking up to the Chinese holding some significant shareholdings in some companies.
if they leave dollars too fast, their remaining dollar holdings will devalue rapidly, so it'll take many years. and yeah it's crap. i wasn't able to act in 2004 when i should have. now i still feel perplexed as to how to avoid the looming yuck.
this is what real economics blogging sounds like. tell nigel. he's finger-painting another rosey picture. STOCKS R UP U GUYZ
Anon @ 2: 24 Amen to that! I dislike possessions. Who or what is possessed? Thank goodness most Americans don't agree, or the economy would tank on the reduced consumer spending. What do you think would happen if the FairTax (fairTax.org) passed?
Wankspittle @ 2:42 AM
So far, Congress won't let the Chinese or Arabic companies buy US companies (eg, oil companies or ports.) Do you think Congress will allow increased foreign ownership in the future? Do they have any choice?
Diddler @ 3:12 AM
Ben Stein/Phil DeMuth's books, like, Yes, You Can Still Retire Comfortably! are great starting resources.
I ASSumed he quit writng.
----------------
Oh, you may be right then. I shall miss the angry man's verbal harranging.
I guess he said all he could say and now it is time for us to act if we haven't already. Good on you for buying silver.
Catch the BS here Ladies and Gents:
"I bought a new auto insurance policy yesterday for about $550 for six months which required a $180 upfront deposit. I’m grateful that I had enough in my checking account to pay for that."
Didn't you only have $40 a week ago? Where do you get this money? Also, read this as "I bought a cheap policy that I will try to claim this break-in on by calling the police a week from now. Once I get the car fixed and an insurance slip I can show the cops I will not make any payments on the rest of the policy. Sweet - a new stereo for $180."
"My bro the car mechanic / car sales man told me where I can pickup the window for about $50 by checking with VW dismantlers on South Sunrise Blvd.
I plan on doing that first thing Monday."
Not a chance in the world this will happen snowflake. You will find some excuse. Besides, won't you be looking for new accomodation for Tuesday?
"I need a creative solution to paying my sister-in-law rent money for last 2 months and figuring out a way to deal with the 2 month pre-payment the wants."
Since no one is going to lend you money, this can only mean another beg-a-thon. I for one will not give you a cent.
"For those wondering, the beg-a-thon money and CD job money WAS gonna go for rent but somehow disappeared for some other needed expenses."
Yeah, like the week long vacation you took with G. You're unbelievable. I really hope you get your a kicked on Tuesday.
"I need to track them expenses better, down to every (clean) penny. That was one of my 2007 goals and I’m still working on implementing it."
You had a spreadsheet. You can buy Quicken for about $40. All of this could be done instantly.
You're just lazy.
"Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work."
So far, Congress won't let the Chinese or Arabic companies buy US companies (eg, oil companies or ports.) Do you think Congress will allow increased foreign ownership in the future? Do they have any choice?
They still would have a choice which would be protectionist, i.e. not allowing such purchases. The problem that arises then is that the buyer's choice is limited to commodities or other currencies, either of which would be bad news for the dollar. Get it wrong and the US is on a lose-lose. Initially prevents foreign purchase, foreigners go for € or gold say, dollar drops, US changes its mind too late, foreigners come back with more money and buy up at better rates than previous.
"You can buy Quicken for about $40. All of this could be done instantly."
Actually he can do this with a notebook and a pencil for $2.
I just read Nigel's blogs today for the first time in a while. I guess the award winner gets 2760 today...
Are there really tons of lurkers on Nigel's blogs? Seems to me that there really are only about 4 contributors, and they all share the opoposite POV. Then on his Award Winning Blog there are only 2 contributors and they are the same 2 out of 4 at DHC. Again they slam him with negative comments, or common sense which he promptly deletes. How is this supposed to qualify as successful blogging?
if the US gets a Democratic Congress and a Democratic President in a few years are there any predictions if this FE imbalance will get better or worse? And please, if anyone answers please dig up some historical background to support you, not just "it has to be better." After all, Clinton is the one who gave China Most Favored Nation trading status.
wow, Im not nearly as pessimistic abou the value of the dollar or trade inflow / outflow as you guys.
China has a mountain a problems that aren;t widely reported, and likely won't be, until after the 08 Games. Their economy is growing far too fast, they face severe demographic issues, and they purposefully keep the yen low to flood the market with good, thus meaning their exchange rate is artificial, not real
I too, wish we had forums, with threads and everything...
anyway...
Previously, someone had said this of Yulia, who is now harboring the criminal pair:
Job: Hepatology Dept., UC-Davis Medical Center ("Junior Specialist")
Just want to share the public information that she is also listed as serving as "Financial Officer" for a clinical study funded by grants to UCDavis from major medical drug companies and others.
I would think someone in such a position of fiduciary responsibility would take care to distance themselves from living with and sharing a financial arrangement with with people who have self-confessed to serial fraudulent loan activity, whether they are relatives or not; convicted or not.
@ anonopussy:
are there any predictions
I have researched this a lot anon and what I found was that there was a contract in place between the US Gov. and China on behalf of the American Business's that manufacture and import China made goods. This contract protected the US Company's from all high import tariffs, and it expired on Dec. 31, 2006.
With this in mind, the newly elected Democratic Law Makers have a mind to 'bully' China have already set a 27% tariff on Paper goods from China. There is a tax war looming between the US Legislative Democrats and China.
The Democrats want the yuan to float and The Repubs. want the current status to remain.
So, as to posting my sources, it was a lot of reading and research in Dec of 2006,
Read the American China Import Association's web sight, China Business Newspapers, and US
News Documents about the situation but I am not of the mind to re do.
Sorry.
I predicted the 27% tax on HP last year, and it has happened and will become a very quite, very big power struggle between the two countries.
I think we in the US are not in a position to negotiate with China, but obviously the Dems. disagree. Just my opine.
R-Boy
An investment banker friend of mine constantly reminds me that China's got some serious issues. Before they can "take over the world" they must first jump through scads of economic, cultural, and ideological hoops. Ain't gonna happen in our lifetimes.
An update from the Naked Emperor:
"I bought a new auto insurance policy yesterday for about $550 for six months which required a $180 upfront deposit. I’m grateful that I had enough in my checking account to pay for that.
My bro the car mechanic / car sales man told me where I can pickup the window for about $50 by checking with VW dismantlers on South Sunrise Blvd.
I plan on doing that first thing Monday.
I need a creative solution to paying my sister-in-law rent money for last 2 months and figuring out a way to deal with the 2 month pre-payment the wants.
For those wondering, the beg-a-thon money and CD job money WAS gonna go for rent but somehow disappeared for some other needed expenses.
I need to track them expenses better, down to every (clean) penny. That was one of my 2007 goals and I’m still working on implementing it."
I like "somehow disappeared". That's cute.
Thanks Flying Monkey.
I am not an Anonopussy, nor am I am award winning blogger. :) I like to think of myself more like an Anonypal who is embarrassed by his lack of economic savvy these days.
Oops. I am waaay behind the curve on that one. Go about your business, citizens. Nothing to see.
Anonypal,
I am no economic PHD either, but I have really learned a lot on the WWW.
@ noob 1:24
Fuck you dead ;)
Google report:
Aspeth is now the #4 Nigel Swaby info resource on the web.
Foreclosure Avoiders doesn't even make the results foe "Foreclosure Avoiders."
All haterz bow before Nigel Swaby's madd SEO skillzez.
From Casey - "the beg-a-thon money and CD job money WAS gonna go for rent but somehow disappeared for some other needed expenses."
Somehow disappeared? SOMEHOW DISAPPEARED? This from someone who thinks of himself as a businessperson? You can't even keep track of $1k? The only businesspeople that say "somehow disappeared" are thieves.
Would "some other needed expenses" be the week long vacation Casey and Galina took recently?
How can we get EN to come up for the 1st google search of "nigel swaby"?
I suppose K & G can sell their blood or plasma. Maybe make some money as test subjects for something or other at UCD?
It's not all good, but frankly, I think it's much better now than it's going to be.
I have a "creative" idea for Casey to bring in money to pay his bills.
GET A JOB.
The likely outcome of the China problem ain't pretty. I saw BLADE RUNNER, and all them little yaller people runnin' around in Amurka made me nervous.
I've read that Cheney/Rumsfeld accelerated research into weapons that selectively kill targeted ethnicities. The programs are old but the research apparently goes on. Who are the intended victims? Asians? Caucasions? Blacks? What would be the effect of wiping out all Asians, including those of China, besides removing all the smart computer people and daintiest ladyboys?
I don't have the patience to dig up and cite specific relevant links, but I'll steer you in a fascinating direction:
ETHNIC WEAPONS
1970 MILITARY REVIEW
Government Report: Bio-Weapons Could Be Used To Combat Overpopulation
China has a mountain a problems that aren;t widely reported, and likely won't be, until after the 08 Games. Their economy is growing far too fast, they face severe demographic issues, and they purposefully keep the yen low to flood the market with good, thus meaning their exchange rate is artificial, not real
The US at least has the advantage of being a lot closer to self-sufficiency than say the UK. I would agree that there a problems inside China but any recession there would be part of a world-wide recession. Yes, the economy is growing too fast and will slow. That slowing will cause internal problems and exchange rate problems but they will still hold a lot of $ and want to do something with them. (although long term hold may be an option). Demographically there are problems in a lot of countries, are there any specific to China that the West will not suffer?
Casey Fannnnn,
That is some really depressing sh!t.
I beleive it sadly.
My impression of China' demographic problem is that, yes, like the West, they will have an aging population (in large part due to the One Child policy they have). Unlike the West, they are going to get old before they get rich, and will have far fewer resources to deal with the problems caused by an aging population:
IHT article
Interestingly, the United States, over the long term, is in relatively good demographic condition, compared to the rest of the rich world. The US population is still expected to grown, and there will be something like half-a-billion Americans at around 2050. In the highly unlikely event that per capita GDP doesn't increase from now to then, we're talking about a $25T economy (2006 dollars). With very pessimistic assumptions (i.e., productivity growth along the lines of the 1970s for this period), this will be a $40T economy. Yeah, we have problems. A lot of them are self-inflicted. But a lot of places are worse off, some of them markedly so.
Re Flinging Monkey 7:51:
It's best to keep in mind that most of the evil stuff our fine leaders allow to be created is never used. Remember PROJECT NORTHWOODS, in which the US military actually planned to nuke New York. Remember that Nixon re-opened and staffed a WWII-era Japanese internment camp to house "dissidents", specifically hippies. And so on. If they used every bit of evil shit they make, we'd all be dead or nailgunned to a wall already.
(although long term hold may be an option). Demographically there are problems in a lot of countries, are there any specific to China that the West will not suffer?
===============
China will sell the USD, secretly.
They are emerging economically and we are a Nation of debtors, from the Gov. on down to cities and families.
China acts are our bank, to the tune of 1 trillion, which they have publicly stated they will diversify out of.
They sell to us and loan us the money to buy their goods,including air-buses.
In a word, The West suffers China and we are at their mercy, imo.
We will become more and more like them as they become more like us.
@ Casey Fannnnn,
Yep, but what is stunning is they can not keep a secret, unless these things you point out to us are Government Red Herrings to take our eyes off of the (cash flow) ball.
Rob Dawg,
One unintended winner of the US Dollar demise- the Global poor.
You will find a statistic that the % of people living on $1/day will go down dramatically as the dollar falls. Boo-yah!
Big Cheese
Here's how its going to play out.
The future of China: Elites derive wealth from ownership of multinational companies with bases all over the world. They live in sumptuous, heavily-fortified compounds, consuming internationally famous, trendy luxury goods and sending their children to prestegious American and European universities, where they meet, mingle with, and sometimes marry elites of other nations. Outside the wealthy compounds, a sea of wretched humanity huddles in abject, miserable poverty.
The future of the US: Elites derive wealth from ownership of multinational companies with bases all over the world. They live in sumptuous, heavily-fortified compounds, consuming internationally famous, trendy luxury goods and sending their children to prestegious American and European universities, where they meet, mingle with, and sometimes marry elites of other nations. Outside the wealthy compounds, a sea of wretched humanity huddles in abject, miserable poverty.
The future of India: Elites derive wealth from ownership of multinational companies with bases all over the world. They live in sumptuous, heavily-fortified compounds, consuming internationally famous, trendy luxury goods and sending their children to prestegious American and European universities, where they meet, mingle with, and sometimes marry elites of other nations. Outside the wealthy compounds, a sea of wretched humanity huddles in abject, miserable poverty.
The future of Europe: Elites derive wealth from ownership of multinational companies with bases all over the world. They live in sumptuous, heavily-fortified compounds, consuming internationally famous, trendy luxury goods and sending their children to prestegious American and European universities, where they meet, mingle with, and sometimes marry elites of other nations. Outside the wealthy compounds, a sea of wretched humanity huddles in abject, miserable poverty.
The future of the "developing world": Elites derive wealth from ownership of multinational companies with bases all over the world. They live in sumptuous, heavily-fortified compounds, consuming internationally famous, trendy luxury goods and sending their children to prestegious American and European universities, where they meet, mingle with, and sometimes marry elites of other nations. Outside the wealthy compounds, a sea of wretched humanity huddles in abject, miserable poverty.
Re 8:08 AM, Flinging Monkey Poo:
I think secrets can be kept. So often, the truth doesn't come out until fifty years later in a book by some very old army or cabinet guy - and nobody cares, because it's ancient history and it involves reading. The NORTHWOODS project was revealed over thirty years after its near-implementation. You'd think it would be a national outrage. Nope. A blip and it's gone.
What we hear about military plans and devices may be red herrings, but they may more likely be mere nip-slips of the iceberg. When a compliant media - which has always existed in the US - lies by omission, it's easy to hide the elephant. An entertaining depiction of media complicity in subterfuge is the movie GOOD NIGHT AND GOOD LUCK. 1950 or 2007, it's the same story.
Anon, that sounds a lot like Francis Fukuyama's old theory about "The End of History": that now that the Cold War is over, everyone will settle into nice, peaceful, liberal democracies and practise capitalism and everyone will be happy and it will be all sunshine and roses.
Fukuyama was wrong. Its hard to paint various people(s), cultures, states, with such broad strokes.
@ Casey Fannnnnh,
Yep, Tuskegee comes to mind as well.
Remember that MSM revelation earlier this year where the ADMITTED
allowing the Government to Plant stories as NEWS!
My Dad was CIA and he never told my Mom until 13 years AFTER he retired from the USAF, btw, so I can see both sides.
So, Ditto to you on your outlook Casey Fannnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnh.
I have said before and will say it again, "Take the red pill people,
and come out of the Matrix".
Now back to your regularly schedule programing.....
Fuk u ya ma ma?
What kind of name is that, are you kidding?
Anon, I'll respond, despite the fact that you're trolling a bit. "Fukuyama" is a japanese name. Francis Fukuyama was Deputy Director of the State Planning Department.
Suggest going to amazon and looking up "Francis Fukuyama" and "The End of History"
Then suggest looking up "Samuel Huntington" and "The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of the World Order".
At 8:18 AM, Schnapps said:...
Anon, that sounds a lot like Francis Fukuyama's old theory about "The End of History": that now that the Cold War is over, everyone will settle into nice, peaceful, liberal democracies and practise capitalism and everyone will be happy and it will be all sunshine and roses.
Fukuyama's theory may have been "sunshine and roses," but the vision I wrote was hardly comforting. I imagine a world of shortages and environmental difficulties; of sharper divides between the rich and the poor, with the middle class having melted like butter. Yes, my vision involves a kind of global homogeneity, but it's not the gee-wiz tech utopia of Fukuyama or other starry-eyed globalist boosters. There is nothing in my vision to preclude war, savage conflict, cutthroat competition, failure and poverty, and so on.
Anon@ 8:55,
Sorry, I was unclear. I meant its similar in the way that everything turns out the same. I don't think its possible to paint different things with the same brushstrokes.
That's all. It had nothing to do with sunshine and roses vs. WWIII.
Maybe I can make my personal position clearer by asking a single question:
"Are there any scenarios where the American Middle Calasses are not screwed?"
Rob Dawg,
Oh hell, no! :)
Schnapps,
That would be my conclusion as well. Look, the American Middle Class may very well become an historial footnote, an abberation conjured from a world war and isolation. For some reason as a group they don't understand their arriviste status and the threat they pose to the ruling classes around the world.
"Are there any scenarios where the American Middle Calasses are not screwed?"
Don't know about screwed but depending on the depth of any forthcoming recession they will suffer but not as much as the unskilled working classes. Depressions tend to hit certain areas both economically and geographically very hard and the knock-on effect is felt in other areas. Think of the not so recession proof industries like RE as we have already discussed. There are loads more licensed RE people than there were 5 years ago. Less houses being built, more repos and foreclosures and there's a lot less work to go round. I am in the UK and I can see call centre jobs and the like going to the Indian sub-continent because the labour is cheaper but speaks English. The menial jobs will go to EU workers from poorer countries whose minimum wage is 1/5th our minimum wage. The unskilled or semi-skilled lose out. Look what happened in the recession in the 30's. Certain industries Steelwork, mining, shipbuilding took a hammering. Yes, others suffered but there was a significant number of people (most of the workforce) who just stayed in their jobs and rode it out.
The people who will suffer are the ones in the "expendable" jobs, the froth of the expansion in RE, maybe stockbroking, construction companies and their suppliers, unskilled staff in clerical work and the catering and entertainment business. I sure you can see what I'm getting at, I can't come up with all the variations.
Visited a Nike factory in Asia almost a decade ago. High-end, low-end shoes are all made the same way.
Average manufacturing cost per pair of shoes? $10.
Retail price? $50-200
Oh yeah, [standing on my soapbox], unions in the US are going to drive more manufacturing overseas. That's right, keep pushing for obscene wages and benefits for US workers. If I were a corporation accountable to shareholders, you can bet your ass I'm going to offshore manufacturing to increase the bottom line.
"Are there any scenarios where the American Middle Calasses are not screwed?"
+++++++++++
@Alpha Dawg,
Nope, not on this train track and there are no brakes that I can see.
Re:
>>Are there any scenarios where the American Middle Calasses are not screwed?<<
From some angles, the "middle class" looks like a pump'n'dump phenomenon, deliberately planned almost a hundred years ago. It's time for the elite to cash out.
flailingforward...thanks for the link. so did Mel ever make good on her threat to report Tim to the FBI?
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