I make no secret that I am what was called in my native New England; frugal. Don't bother, I've heard all the synonyms. Anyway, yesterday was half-price day at the thrift store so I went to buy some polo shirts for $3.49-$0.50. As I was shopping they brought out some more junk. I got a few things. A Canon D60 body w/1Gb microdrive, a Canon 70-300 IS long lens, a Speedlite 420EZ sunpak and a Tamron 28-300 AF macro lens. $42. So, did I get a deal?
From Friday, February 03, 2006 prior to anything Casey I scribbled:
Thumbing through my copy of "The Necronomicon" (at midnight by the light of a black flame), it warns that the consequences of bringing the housing market back from the dead will be far more dangerous than letting it rot in the stygian depths to which it has fallen. The extent of those depths in the dark days ahead will not be known until the spectre of Cthulu awakens and (re)posses those things most dear to the doomed minions souls. Namely the holy speed boat, the most reverent Harley-Davidson, those objects of all desire the SUV, RV and ATV. Only then when all hope is lost and the scavengers are finished picking the bodies on the bloody battlefield clean of all that is valuable will the lamentations of the children, resigned to public schools and community college be heard. Only then as the wives cry out to the darkness, "Maui, Cancun wherefor art thou" will the true nature of the beast variously known to mere humans as the House ATM, the great equity withdrawl, the very HELOC himself so powerful that he is CAPITALIZED be revealed as a vampire sucking the lifeblood of guilty and innocent alike. Listen now, quiet, in the distance. The sound, the smell, the desperation. Those who thought an easy death, bankruptcy itself will be denied. No one gets off that easy. The laws of the gods of light and dark are no match for the US courts system. Ameriquest will eat their livers every dawn and peck out their eyes every sunset only to keep them barely alive to feed again on the morrow. And at night, where will they sleep? Not in their own beds, that's for sure.
"Now I get it! Now I know why EN commenters and housing bubbleistas hate me. I’m too positive. I don’t think housing is going to crash. I believe in the American economy. I believe in the power of capitalism and of the ability of markets to define themselves. I believe that one should never, ever give up. The haters hate my optimism. They hate that I’ve managed to work myself through very difficult times, personally hanging on the edge of insolvency. They hate that I encourage Casey in his self made conundrum and help him with advice. They hate Casey for not giving up already. The haters hate baby kittens! Now I understand. Nigel Swaby 03/30/07
And the R.I.P. part. I mean it. A lot of people were hurt, are hurt and will be hurt. Let's not stalk the funeral. It can do no good and has the potential for great harm. Talk about here. Vent, rail. Make fun of supporting actors who are still hoping that they can get "Joanie Love Chachi" out of the cancellation of "Happy Days."
Blog note: The last of the Habitat donations are still trickling in. You guys are awesome. I will put together a comprehensive list, initials and amounts only. Duane said he will also do a match. Hopefully we'll have a grand total by 5PM Friday as a tribute to our own fliptard.
Let's get all the stages of addiction cleared up right now. First, we can quit any time we want. The key is that when we want not when someone else says we've had enough. Second, housing, land use, transportation and their associated topics is a harmless distraction. It's not like it leads to obsessive blogging or hard stuff like following self destructive scammers. Just trying to make a little money helping people and build a net reputation never hurt anyone in meatspace except koi. What's the harm?
N.B. There's so much happening today it is going to be tough to get it all out. Lots of little small topic posts at first. Bear with me, good things are coming. This is the $3000 Casey borrowed in October to stage his comeback. This is the $1000 that Casey laid on the "kitchen table" last week.
Notice anything? Brand new bills six months ago, never been folded all the same. Now nearlt new bills, no creases just a simple fold and soft curl, all the same. He folded them over, stuffed them in a jar and only took them out for a photo op.
The mob has spoken. Eye candy and mind bleach graphics stay. Cute is out.
Actually, I wanted a separate post because there seems to be a lot of confusion as to the identity of LossMitPro. You see he's asked me to take down all tha bad things that have ever been said about him but I don't know who "him" is. Also my overexposure to Caseyworld may have warped my sense of "bad" as well. Can anyone help with that? Normally I don't talk about this stuff but I don't have any reference samples of the person being defamed or whatever it is that was supposedly done. Examples? Remember; these are illustrative and in a research context. If the original bad stuff is bad enough I may have to take it down and then only the reference material could remain. Thanks in advance for your cooperation.
It has been suggested that my choice of graphics is disturbing. I don't know. Do I need an intervention? Shall I just stick to kittens and babies on sunny warm summer days with the gentle breeze tousling their hair?
As much as some have built up Casey as a criminal mastermind the reverse situation can also be true. Now that Casey has adopted a Christian, honest and open business model he should welcome any scrutiny to keep him on the righteous path. He has nothing to to fear from the mythical dawg beast pictured above. Just a figment. I truth we are loveable little fuzzballs: What's not to love?
Bloomberg has an alarming article on a new wave of financial industry hiring; bankruptcy advisers. While the report is European oriented the warning signs of a massive credit implosion are everywhere. The trend that struck me was the leveraged debt ratios used for buyouts. In 2003 LBOs carried debt equal to 4.8 times EBITA, 2004 5.1 times, Q1 2007 6.2 times. The basic theme here is "I'll give you too much for your company if you agree to take a worthless IOU." Big company, small real estate investor; it's all the same.
Every little thing Casey Serin does is tinged with criminality. Even IAFFs newfound income is based upon violating the TOS with multiple ad streams. He won't talk about it but it looks as if his solution to unsecurd debt is to ignore it until it is too old to collect. International media exposure and not one public acknowledgement from any interested agency at any level of government. How does he get away with this when every day people go to prison for far less?
Time now for my occasional reiteration of my CHASE concept:
The best option is to pay for a separate air network. $45.3 billion can pay for lots of "pocket airports" for the exclusive use of the "California High Speed Airtrain System." [CHASE] We start by funding research and constructing of a fleet of STOL "whisperfans" with a low top speed (320-350 mph) and short range (<1800km) and then pay for their operations in a fashion unique to public transit; full cost farebox recovery ticket pricing. Surprisingly those prices would be less than the projected costs of the CA-HSR fares despite the service being better.
At the Authority's March 2, 2007 board meeting, the transportation and economic consulting firm of Cambridge Systematics (CS) presented new ridership and revenue forecasts for the Authority's proposed high-speed train system. The CS study, which was prepared for the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC), shows the potential ridership of the high-speed train system in the range of 86 million to 117 million passengers per year and annual revenue of between $2.6 billion and $3.9 billion by the year 2030. These projections exceed the previous forecasts in the Authority's 2000 Business Plan which projected up to 68 million passengers annually and up to $1.8 billion in annual revenue by 2020. The new projections represent a 72% - 104% increase in annual ridership and a 110% - 170% increase in annual revenue. For more information please click here: "Ridership and Revenue Forecasting Study".
The only growth has been in the number of puff pieces pushing this red-headed step child. The price is now $45.3 billion and the timetable is pushed out another 9 years and... You get it. Like every non public roads proposal late, underperforming and over budget.
So, let's just ask ourselves what 117million passengers is like. A few assumptions but don't worry, the end result is a disaster beyond comprehension. If only 1/4th of the passengers ever traverse the Bakersfield - LA segment that is 29 million. The trains are likely to hold 300 passengers and run at 80% load factors. 240 people per train 14 trains per hour. Every hour. Every day. 24/7. With one of these sweet rides pulling through LAUS every 9 minutes just how are they going to que up the passengers and load them even with 3-4 dedicated tracks? They cannot and it won't matter because the alomost high speed rail turns into O'Hare the day before Thanksgiving and adds hours to the trip.
I admit to being somewhat of a Macophile. I'm not blinded, just predisposed toward liking the products and the company. I'm not alone. The "likers" are a subset of the "followers" and it apears there are a lot of followers reading EN. Reader Huck Finn says:
I work in finance as an investment analyst. People love technology and always look and hope for strong returns in the tech sectors. The 90s were awesome; when the tech bubble burst, it really hurt.
As the old saying goes, however, time heals all wounds. Since equities have done so well over the last few years, people are starting to forget the pain of '00 (and '02). There are a lot of people waiting for that big tech rally.
It may happen at some point, but I personally don't think tech is a long-term winner. There may be phenomenal gains for companies like Google and Apple, but the thing about tech: people always want more product/features at a lower cost.
For every Apple and Google of the tech world, there are thousands of dot.com companies that didn't make it.
People hate my anti-tech bias. And, really, I guess I can't blame them. I just love dividends and strong cash flows.
More product and more features is an expense that cuts into profits eventually. The more you offer and the less you charge for it, the higher your sales numbers. Trouble is, it cuts into profits.
Apple is enjoying its (near-)monopolistic state of iPod, but they're going to have to keep rolling out new products that people will upgrade to (iPhone) or they will have to cut costs to attract new buyers.
What happens if/when their new products no longer look like they're worth throwing another $500 toward? How often will people get rid of their new-last-year iPods for the new-this-year-but-spendy versions?
- they have strong brand loyalty, their product line is innovative, they have strong cash flows, etc...
So Apple is probably a bad example in the near term, but it's still part of the technology sector...which makes me nervous.
People may make be making money hand over fist on Apple right now, but I'm not one of them.
I'm a contrarian - and am always very early on my technology bets. ----
Fair statements all. Remember also the codiclies about the differences twixt good companies and good stocks. Throw in the recent Caseylike behavior of so many companies including AAPL regards options and buying sprees, etc. and there's a lot to discuss. I've purposely not said my piece, I'll save it for the comments as my opinions are not worth anymore than anyone elses' and thus I won't abuse my position other than to say the iPhone as Apple's second most interesting product could be the ultimate under the radar technology innovation of the decade rivaling wi-fi.
Young Sputnik pictured here has an idea to acellerate Young Toadlickerz™ "burn rate." He isn't accumulating mortgage lates or penalties except on the Utah house. In fact, if he gets lucky enough he might even find a way to ultimately keep that one with its' improvements. That would be a golden ring pulled from the manure pile he jumped into. Still, he's got expenses and minimum payments and catchup payments to consider. Since the flopper extraordinare hasn't updated his spreadsheet of doom in so long I'm a little lost as to his "monthly nut." Looks to me that -if- he can control expenses $6,000-$7,000 per moth could keep the wolf from the door. Anyone have a better analysis?
'Scouse that much money passing through the sticky fingers of Better Idea Buttfly™ won't go to the best use, we all know that by now. Keeping the wolf from the door may be a goal but who is gonna keep the bad kitty from the dynamite plunger?
DSM IV definition: Someone who suffers from Narcissistic Personality disorder (NPD) has at least 5 of the following characteristics:
• has a grandiose sense of self-importance (e.g., exaggerates achievements and talents, expects to be recognized as superior without commensurate achievements) • is preoccupied with fantasies of unlimited success, power, brilliance, beauty, or ideal love • believes that he or she is "special" and unique and can only be understood by, or should associate with, other special or high-status people (or institutions) • requires excessive admiration • has a sense of entitlement, i.e., unreasonable expectations of especially favorable treatment or automatic compliance with his or her expectations • is interpersonally exploitative, i.e., takes advantage of others to achieve his or her own ends lacks empathy: is unwilling to recognize or identify with the feelings and needs of others • is often envious of others or believes that others are envious of him or her • shows arrogant, haughty behaviors or attitudes
For convienience I've placed a small • next to the applicable symptoms exhibited by Young Dandelion. Head shrinkers all over the world should be directed to him (not his website, that's enabling). Is there some sort of finders' fee or Guniess Book acknowledgement for successfully identifying the The Worlds' Most Narcissistic Personality?
A lad serinsane? Seems anything that could go wrong did go wrong on Casey's Earth Mission. He's wired wrong. He didn't get the right firmware upgrades and now appears immune to flash updates as well. The OS was installed without the mandatory emotional and ethical packages. Fimally the ssoftware downloaded was not just buggy but crappy RE generic timewasterware. Even with all these flaws if the CS 1.0 had been rolled out Q1 '01 instead of Q2 '06 it still might have worked. Isn't that scary?
Armchair head shrinkers. Come on. We all do it. It is one of this trainwrecks' guiltier pleasures. After last night's performance art I have a deeper appreciation of some of the various comments from people. "Just wired wrong" comes to mind. So imagine the Serin Clan does the right thing and drags him in for a full evaluation. This would IMHO be a great thing. First he'd get a complete physical workup and then... The Couch. And that is this morning's guilty entertainment. Imagine The Conversation that would go on between the doctor and Casey onThe Couch...
Safely ensconced behind the golden EN keyboard at the remote mountain headquaters of the wildest 2hr 18 mins in internet fraudcast history. Something like 750 posts so far. Traffic spiked at triple IAFF page views and is finally returning to normal.
Everyone has been good and even the occasional trolls have kept their comments tame. But it's Friday and a long weekend. I'll clean up any loose ends tomorrow and maybe format somemore LeGate.
My only comment is that he's getting more slippery with practice. The one that had me clenching fists was the asking personal questions of callers.
Man if that's how he treats his brother then you gotta imagine mom and G are getting some seriously abusive attitude. I can only hope there's a flurry of late night calls amongst the Serin family of the sort "what do you mean mom could lose the house and maybe even go to jail?" "He owes HOW much?" Problem is I don't see as there is anything they can do at this point. Even if they sold a house or somehow came up with 200 large that only keeps the wolves at the back door at bay. The wolves at the front door won't go away for just money.
Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.