Monday, March 26, 2007

Housing Sales Tank in Feburary

Shock, surprise. Actually I'm not surprised but then again I won't be surprised next month when the claim is that the decline was a simple glitch as mortage funded was disrupted by new standards next month. BFD, these datums are revised several times. Indeed this report retroactively changed the November '06 numbers.

I've been pondering the demographic shifts of a contracting housing market. First a few tidbits from our friends the Census:

Year Total Houses Crowded Severely Crowded
1940 34,447,032 6,964,894 20.2% 3,085,922 9.0%
1950 42,154,443 6,628,292 15.7% 2,607,717 6.2%
1960 53,023,875 6,113,473 11.5% 1,902,923 3.6%
1970 63,449,747 5,210,874 8.2% 1,408,416 2.2%
1980 80,389,673 3,648,445 4.5% 1,134,619 1.4%
1990 91,947,410 4,548,799 4.9% 1,911,867 2.1%
2000 105,480,101 6,057,890 5.7% 2,873,122 2.7%

1-PERSON OCCUPANCY RATES
2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 1940
25.8% 24.6% 22.7% 17.6% 13.3% 9.3% 7.7%

2000: 2.66 persons per dwelling unit.
2007: at the same 2.66 persons per dwelling unit would require 114,000,000 dwelling units.

Current estimate of housing stock: 128,000,000 dwelling units. Excess: 14 million dwelling units.

Gee does anyone think maybe 8 houses with ZERO occupancy had anything to do with this nonsense?

65 comments:

Nigel said...

1st Haterz!

Nigel said...

1st Haterz!

Tony Soprano said...

First LOOSERS!

Tony Soprano said...

eh, that suxxors

Nigel said...

That's what you guys get for making fun of me and my precious.

Rob Dawg said...

Freakin' A!! I published and refreshed and there's multiple claims of firsts? Geez, you guys read fast. You are reading this crap right?

Anonymous said...

DAMN! Nigel bitch slaps Tony.....

Nigel said...

I only read my own press releases and vanity diatribes.

Tony Soprano said...

Read? I'm a Realtor, I don't need to read shit. I just sold another house last night. That makes 3 houses in 4 weeks. No slowdown in the PNW for me. hehe..

Nigel is my stud muffin said...

Who gives a crap about reading anything. It's about BEING FIRST.

Tony Soprano said...

Speaking of firsts, I think it's about time for the first Gimlet of the day. BRB, I need to go to the liquor store.

Nigel said...

Tony,
Pick me a up some White Zinfandel.

Nigel said...

And some of those cute little umbrellas.

Nigel said...

Sorry, must dash - I've got my 2,759 weekly visitors to my award-winning website to take care of. Did I mention that I get 2,759 visitors a week? And that I won an award? And that I get 2,759 visitors a week?

GameOver said...

Tony's all fired up!

As for reading (us non-realtor types still do :P) you posts, yes I do.

I agree and don't understand why everyone else can't see it. Are we all that special? People buying 29 houses on spec just smells fishy and doesn't make sense. I don't understand why the banks let it get to this point...

Peripheral Visionary said...

I'll humor Rob with a real response. Here's the interesting question: how did it happen that the existing home sales report was UP (month-over-month, actually down year-over-year) when the new home sales report was sharply DOWN? Have consumers suddenly taken a liking to dilapidated lived-in housing--even with very generous incentives from the home builders?

Oh, say, and I wonder which direction those NAR-supplied existing home numbers (as opposed to the Fed-supplied new housing numbers) will quietly get revised come the next report . . .

aaron said...

I can see Casey being the man they sent to the lady's front door. basically that's what he is going to start doing with his site.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/usa_subprime_scams_dc;_ylt=Am5e8iOK8sP9DWguzgWpVIYDW7oF

Rob Dawg said...

GameOver,
I honestly believe banks got to this point because they have bad software. Yes, that simple. How many people died discovering that the rules about supersonic flight weren't the same as subsonic? They had all these models that extrapolated historical data. Great, that means NYC is under 11 feet of manure by now. Heck, Anyone old enough to understand the 1970s an "population bombs" and such are more sophisticated than the banks' loss models.

All machines are amplifiers. Mortgage credit models amplified poor assumptions in a vacuum.

Anonymous said...

Then you can have a dozen Mexicans cramming other houses down the street...

Nigel said...

Don't hate the playa, hate the game. Peace out dawgs, I'm award winning and you are not.

Nigel said...

And I get 2,759 visitors a week - did I mention that already? It bears repeating.

Rob Dawg said...

I'll humor Rob with a real response. Here's the interesting question: how did it happen that the existing home sales report was UP (month-over-month, actually down year-over-year) when the new home sales report was sharply DOWN?

Gee..., thanks?

Exisiting home sales reporting processes can lag as much as three motnhs behind new home sales reporting for the same period. Not always but oftentimes. There's also "inflation." There's more than a million more houses this year than last. That's 1.5% or more just off the top due to inventory inflation alone.

Honest. What I see is lots of equity mobile people finding a hidey hole for the forseeable future. Out of real estate investment and into equity preservation strategies.

Nigel said...

Two. Seven. Five. Nine.

Nigel said...

2759. Winner Winner Macaroni Grill Dinner! You all have been schooled by the Blog King!

Rob Dawg said...

"2.759"
That's inches you are bragging about right?

Anonymous said...

How many visitors does Nigel get in a week?

T said...

Nigel said...
Two. Seven. Five. Nine.


LOL!

GameOver said...

Come on Rob, we all know Nigel uses metric. Just over an inch!

1 inch = 2.54 centimeters

Nigel said...

Can someone find my leather chaps for me? It's time to hop in the bimmer and rock Morman town. Sweet!

SLMG said...

Please refer to me as S.L.M.G.

Serin Loves Macaroni Grill

Q How can you tell if a cowboy is gay? said...

A: He likes his chaps on backward.

Peripheral Visionary said...

Exisiting home sales reporting processes can lag as much as three motnhs behind new home sales reporting for the same period.

While I think there's a reporting lag, I think it's much more than that. The NAR reports seem to be consistently revised downward these days--if I had hung on to previous months' figures I'd be able to verify that, but that's definitely the feel I get.

I suspect they're using generous assumptions to keep numbers on the high end in the preliminary reports so that they can produce all these "upside surprises"--housing sales up for a third month! Then they're quietly revised downward the month after, to provide favorable year-over-year and month-over-month comparisons. I'm hanging on to the preliminary numbers this time, if there's a big downward revision to February's numbers when the March numbers come out I'll know something is up.

Rob Dawg said...

Peripheral Visionary,
Kudos for staying on topicand being willing to explore the issues. That said, I'm not sure what you are looking at. New home sales "close" quickly and are thus reported 1-2 months sooner for otherwise identical situations. When you get beyond the 90-120 day transition period these aren't so much "escrow" as "conditional contracts."

In a down market I've learned to expect downward revisions. Ain't evil but ain't accurate either. As long as you understand the process the data are workable.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

Rob Dawg,
Just want to let you know, I read every word.
TTFN

ratlab said...

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/newsanalysis/investing/10346665.html

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/newsanalysis/homebuildersconstruction/10346626_2.html

C-Corp Man said...

Be careful Rob Dawg. According to Nigel you don't know anything but hating Casey and busing (huh?).

Actually, you know more than Nigel could EVER hope to convince us of. This is why I will still come here way after Casey is out of sight, out of mind and rotting in either a cell, hell, divorce, poverty (or all of them!). What makes this place rock is YOU don't hate as hard as Keith does at Housing Panic (Love the guy, but it's a bit simplistic to be predicting a depression - this mess is more complex than that) or what Nigel whines on regarding his REIC cheerleading talking points.

Good job!

Anonymous said...

Rob, I dont get the feeling home sales are going to drop like a bomb. I also am jsut starting to get a feeling for what is going on in subprime. I have a small mortgage broker company and have put earnest money down on my second house I m holding to "flip" I am growing tired of that word. "I am renovating houses, hopefully at a profit" Ther thats better. I am trying to get a feel on what part of the subprime debacle is "investment idiots" ie Casey and people who truley bought a house to live in and now realy cant pay. I have a hard time believing that the rising home prices "saved" the vast majority of would be defaulters and that now that home prices have fallen/not gone up they cannot sell and are in foreclosure. I think the scammers out there are making up a large percentage of this shit. I seen New Century do deals in Gary Indiana that Stevie Wonder could see a problem with. They just do loans and worry about it later.

Chris

Anonymous said...

Seriously, I wonder what percentage of the subprime defaults are a product of "I think I am slick Willie" (in more ways than one) Running game in every depressed urban market. Michigan, Chicago, Atlanta, Indianapolis, Ohio. Every one of these "southside mentality brokers" Knows he can put a person in a house that has an inflatedappraisal of 100k and the buyer is glad to take 55-60K Even someone with a 550 credit score and a job can get 80% loan to value. A fake bank statement and "Its all good" I think the percentage of fraud is what was not taken into account in these investor "Models" in the subprime market. They are correct, even with say 580 credit. I guy with a family is going to try and save that home. That bill will be paid first. Credit dosent have to be 700+ But they didnt factor the pervasiveness of the fraud.

Rob Dawg said...

Rob, I dont get the feeling home sales are going to drop like a bomb.
Too late. Don't get me wrong. Gross sales have not collapsed but profitable sales have. \
I also am just starting to get a feeling for what is going on in subprime.
Too late again.
I have a small mortgage broker company and have put earnest money down on my second house I m holding to "flip" I am growing tired of that word. "I am renovating houses, hopefully at a profit" There thats better.
Again, sorry. Being an agent or broker or whatever doesn't provide magical immunity.

T said...

Anonymous said...
Rob, I dont get the feeling home sales are going to drop like a bomb.


Wow. Just wow.

Rob Dawg said...

I'll go out on the limb here. Face it. Places where people WANT to live are likely dead money for a decade if not a generation. The recent price drops are just a first phase of a multidecadal reorientation; grocery baggers at $15/hr are not a sustainable ammenity. It doesn't matter what people "wish" what is charged so much as what the customer is charged.

Anonymous said...

i'm quitting nigel cold turkey. it's been 24 hours since my last aghast gape at his web empire of self-promoting bad perma-bull book reports. in that time, equities took a hit because home sales fell, as did median prices. in that same time period, nigel fluffed his pom poms, and sharpened his pencil for the next bad book report. "this one's really gonna improve customer stickiness... and then i'll monetize!" he reportedly said.

Tony Soprano said...

Here in Seattle, I just haven't seen much of a drop in price. What I have seen is a slowdown in appreciation big time. My parents in Merced on the other hand....holy shit!

Stanley said...

No area is bullet proof in this market and it's going to take time. Just as the dregs were dragged up during the bubble, they will lead the downturn. Anyone who bought during the past couple of years and HAVE to sell is screwed.....and that is one helluva lot of houses and money.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous 4:44,

Come on, man don't be a Realist from Haterville! What the fook is a HATERVILLE?

This Just In said...

The Secret of the Murse:

He's making deals, he's bringing in money, and
he won't tell you what's in the Murse:

The Murse Secret

Legion said...

Those Nigel posts were actually pretty funny, which means it wasn't the real Nigel posting...he's about as dry as Galina's privates right now...

Legion said...

As for the Murse Secret
I was kinda expecting something along the lines about that bullshit book..THE SECRET. I figure that if Casey wishes hard enough, whatever his little greedy heart desires just magically appears in that murse. ie...condom, ky jelly, enema, then cork.

CASEY'S WIFE said...

ive learned to please myself.

thank you!

Anonymous said...

Nigel is showing off his fantasy over on his blog....guy in uniform with a Garrett Anal Probe.

Anon 2 said...

Good point anon,

Here it is at Nigel's blog.

Schnapps said...

[jumping and waving madly] Hey! I have a question!

Whatever happened to actually putting a down payment on a house? When we bought last year, we put 25% down (buying a place to live, not an investment), and the place I used to own with the ex we put 10% down. I remember dad being absolutely appalled when CMHC started allowing 5% down payment mortgages.

So yeah. Whatever happened to down payments?

TK said...

Anonymous 5:18,

Haterville is Nigel's imaginary city where all of the Haterz congregate solely for the purpose of unleashing unwarranted hatred upon his new best friend snowflake.

Hey Nigel, Sorry I couldn't make it back to respond, your piece was quite compelling. All that work just to disprove something I said just to get an uncensored rise out of you. Did you post your sitemeter yet? All we have now is your word to go on, and to most of us, that ain't worth two squirts of wheatgrass.

Now all you gotta do is work on that "Stickiness".

Oh and please don't look up my IP and report me to my employer!

TK said...

Schnapps

I think we'll be seeing them required soon. 25% down - good move.

Acacia said...

Can we please give this Nigel shit a rest?! He's a pathetic moron. I tend to agree he's worse than Serin at this point, but let's not visit his site and encourage his BS.
Rob Dawg, How about a new topic?

TK said...

Acacia, you just want to be first...

Schnapps said...

Oh I knew it was a good move. Especially when I saw the interest rate of 5.45%. :)

I'm just continually amazed at how many people insist on buying a home with nothing down. In my eyes, when you have a down payment (of a substantial amount) you're doing a couple of things. First, you're making a commitment to it - that's money that YOU earned. You let the place go, you lose that principle.

The other thing you're doing is showing the bank (or lender) that you have some iota of responsibility - you've saved this much. You're basically getting the bank to buy in to you.

IMHO. And I studied Political Science. So that's why the lack of numbers :)

Stanley said...

In his dreams....I'm not putting down the computer or leaving the site until a new topic is posted. First is mine...all mine...mine.

Nope, no problem here. Nothing to see..move along.

Stanley said... said...

FIRST!!!

Rob Dawg said...

Almost 61st Stanley.

Stanley said...

Damn!

"premature posting"

sorry....

Rob Dawg said...

Don't be sorry. Casey was late to the housing party and look what that got him.

Acacia said...

As far as Nigel is concerned, I would say it is fist over first.

Nigel said...

There were actually 2 of us Nigel's yesterday. Myself (1st Haterz, among other humorous comments) and the '2759' Nigel - pretty hilarious also.

Today I will be puffing...I mean blowharding...I mean pontificating...on why little Casey is misunderstood and a victim of those dastardly elements of the RE industry - mortgage brokers, appraisers, and agents. Oops, wait a minute. I'm a mortgage broker. That didn't come out right. I better get back to talking about stickiness.

R-Boy said...

Schnapps,

You don't a curriculm to know that you're a part of the math. And you don't need math to talk intelligently about economics.

Bingo and Bingo to you good sir!