Exurban Nation: March 2007

The Aftermath

Okay, I need to get out of California for a week. I'll be remote but itsallgood. Right now the big "T" has the floor and our admiration.

Labels: Casey

ItsAllGoodathon Ch 2

"T" very own and very lovely Nacho scratching sweet voice of reason is getting back in the ring with Casey for a few more gut shots. 4:00PM Sat Mar 31st. Any last requests?

Update: Live Now!

http://www.talkshoe.com/talkshoe/web/streamPop.jsp?episodeId=15060

Labels: Casey

Some Kids Never Learn

@Investor Guy asks over at IAFF…

I want to see if you’ve learned anything. [RE example deal]

Casey Serin's reply:

...So unless I can pick it up at say 300-350 (assuming there are no repairs needed) and I wouldn’t even bother.
----

The correct answer is:

I've learned my lessons. I have no talent, affinity, resources, special knowlege, access to or expertise in any of the myriad necessities to make money in real estate. My instincts have proven horrible. My personality concerning details, deadlines, priorites and the like is not compatible with the demands of the industry. My time is better spent on other ways to earn an honest living.

That is what he should have said.

Labels: Casey

Staring Into the Abyss

It's all about the almighty dollar. The filthy lucre... I feel a song coming on:

PRESENTER:
I've got ninety thousand pounds in my pyjamas.
I've got forty thousand French francs in my fridge.
I've got lots of lovely lire.
Now the Deutschmark's getting dearer,
And my dollar bills would buy the Brooklyn Bridge.

PRESENTER and CHORUS:
There is nothing quite as wonderful as money.
There is nothing quite as beautiful as cash.
Some people say it's folly,
But I'd rather have the lolly.
With money you can make a splash.

PRESENTER:
There is nothing quite as wonderful as money.

CHORUS:
...Money, money, money, money.

PRESENTER:
There is nothing like a newly minted pound.

CHORUS:
...Money, money, money, money.

PRESENTER and CHORUS:
Everyone must hanker
For the butchness of a banker.
It's accountancy that makes the world go 'round.

CHORUS:
'Round, 'round, 'round.

PRESENTER:
You can keep your Marxist ways,
For it's only just a phase,
For it's money, money, money makes the world go 'round.

CHORUS:
...Money, money, money, money, money, money, money, money, moneeeeey!

Labels: Casey, Culture

$220 or ELSE

This is too weird. I loaned $220 to an old client down on his luck. Now Casey needs that same amount; $220 to keep the wolves at bay. There is a differnce however. my client gave me the pink slip to the vehicle you see here.

Labels: Casey

Casey Don't Even Own Casey

Ooooh "Bubba" is gonna be real angry when he finds out about the "pay per use" fees.

Labels: Casey

literally nickels on the dollar

Man, and you think I'm somewhat negative on the prospects of the housing market? Check out this guy:

"In my opinion, the ultimate affect of the real estate bubble -- and its mostly unanticipated implosion -- is that the entire asset class will fall out of favor for many years, possibly for a generation. Only a select few will benefit -- those who had the foresight to sell now and squirrel away the money safely before the real anguish begins."

Labels: Housing

Countdown to Manifesto

Apparently Nigel the Hutt is planning a mega-post to explain his reasons for his recent bizarre behavior. Obviously we aren't on tenterhooks waiting for "Deep Thoughts" by Nigel Handy here. I betting it will be along the lines of teaching us a lesson about hate and how brave little hobbit is to stand up to his haterz™. P.S. The creature in the picture his holding his hand like that and saying "my wee-wee is only this big..."

Labels: Nigel

Free Range Parking

"Free Parking" is a vague concept difficult discuss in these situations
with any reasonable prospect of agreement. Think about what each of the words
individually and combined mean to each interested party. Free to whom?
Parking or amenity? Bundled cost or subsidy or business investment?
Tax dodge? Cost of doing business? Then we get to the current
subspecies; education. Boston College or UMass Boston? Different?
Holy Cross? Is on street parking a violation of Church and State?

Look; parking is paid for. It cannot remain "free" for long to the
users or payers no matter who is paying or using.

There's no such thing as free parking (with one exception noted below).
Adequate bundled transportation infrastructure. I'm not just picking
nits with the phrase. Free parking is inaccurate on many levels. As
I've tried to say in other posts there's a case for what some are
calling free parking to actually be called non-parker parasitism. We
don't need perfect reasoning because the accidental market arrives at
the same result through brute force methods that produce local maximums.
If we were able to inhibit political meddling global maximums would
equally result. I am astounded by people who deny the obvious evidence.
The giant parking lot at the Costco is why gin is 50% cheaper inside.
Without the parking, the cachement area for potential customers shrinks
faster than overhead. No more Beefeaters 1.75l gin in pallet quantities
and next thing you know its' back to the corner package store (aka
bottle shop) and higher prices. For the readers with more respect for
their livers feel free to substitute the commodity item of preference.
Anyone who makes the claim of free parking is only identifying
themselves as being unfamiliar with the subject. And the exception?
Transit park-n-rides. Ample free parking is an absolutely necessary
bundled cost of modern efficient economic activities. Think Vegas,
Ontario Mills, Disneyland. This is the fatal flaw of NURB. Pleasant
places that conform to their dogmas and with a vital economic base are
mutually exclusive goals. Exactly, free parking exists only in one
place; Transit. Amazing that the only truly free parking is also the
one that transit advocates support. It seems to me that "free parking"
is is the new version of pickled eggs and sandwiches at the saloon in
order to sell beer. Imagine how much more "revitalized" "downtown" Los
Angeles would be if the money poured into the big red hole had gone
towards parking subsidies instead. This is directly applicable to my
situation. Having just received my season tickets for the Hollywood
Bowl I look forward to riding the LAMTA's only profitable service. Bus
#653 from Chatsworth Station to the Bowl and back; $5. Cheap, fast,
convienient and wickedly efficient by every measure. Just don't tell
the BRU that it has the most non-hispanic non-black ridership in the
county. Probably the fastest regular bus service in the nation as well.
I've seen 85 on the speedo. Point being that Chatsworth parking is free
and despite the highest fares in the LAMTA system it is still a bargain
because of this.
I would like to make the case for the financial -benefits- of free
parking. The interesting thing I find is the inside out economics of
Walmart and big box or megamall skeptics. Their model is to increase
cachement areas in order to keep prices lower. That means that
traditional mom & pop walkup customers are only getting lower prices
BECAUSE of the parking lot not IN SPITE OF the parking lot. Of course
SoCal is the original large cachement model so it was a big suprise to
Sam Walton and the Smith Bros (grocery) when their big boxes weren't
dominant. Luckily for them (but not for the General area) both went to
Oxanrd and got city deals so generous that their poor performance
wasn't detrimental to their corporate bottom lines.
Then there's the "Snout House" aka attached two car garage controversy.
This is nothing more than a failure of planning. Some of us like baths,
some like showers, some like both. The mega-bathroom retreat/spa is
more evidence of cocooning. One factor driving this trend is an ongoing
shift to owning luxury rather than communal sharing. And some of that
is the increasing barriers to mobility. Who wants to fight traffic and
then find a parking space just to go to the gym? The same money can pay
for a well equipped home gym. Provided you have the space. Thus homes
are getting larger. Making cocooning easier. All that "stuff" needs an
SUV to take home from the Walcostdepot but congestion makes it
impractical for daily travel, so two vehicles and a correspondingly
bigger driveway. Bad transportation decisions result in snout houses.
I thought the connections were obvious.

Ample employee parking increases corporate efficiency and attracts
better employees from a larger potential pool of candidates. There's
even an argument that inadequate parking is anti-family and
anti-social. And just in case you might begin to broach the subject
that employees are unaware of the "benefit" they are earning try to
imagine if the Employee of the Month had his regular parking revoked in
appreciation. The fact that a special parking place is considered a
reward indicates employees are more aware of their own internal
economic self interest than the misguided authors of the "eliminate
subsidized parking" proposals. Free indeed.

Labels: transportation

"sadness, regret and relief"

I feel a mixture of sadness, regret and relief. I feel sadness that I couldn’t stop the foreclosure.

Labels: Casey

Is Blogging Dirty

Is blogging dirty? Yes, if you are doing it right. If you aren't doing it right or ypu are not doing it for the right reasons then it just becomes a bizarre fetish/obsession. There's a problem with maintaining perspective as well. It is just blogging. Assigning any more imporntance than is warranted will get you a 2x4 of reality across your forehead. Some blogs are awesome resources, some fascinating insight into interesting persons, some are valued for their community. those of the notorious variety are invariably tranient phemenona. They know who they are and they know what that means and it bugs the crap out of them.

Labels: Casey, metablog, Nigel

Important Safety Note

A reader asks:

Dear Dawg,

In Blogspot / Blogger, is the blog administrator able to see the IPs
of comments' posters?

Thank you Rob,

Yes, but before you get concerned I won't/don't and will fight anyone who tries this crap. Any emails are confidential, traffic tracking is of the generic variety. Now, Nigel has used the data at his blog to track people but not here. One of the "delays" in the new blog is precisely the testing to ensure privacy. Understand, it is only a little privacy but still many times better than nothing and certainly preferable to the abusive intrusions we've seen elsewhere recently.

Labels: metablog

Cognitive Dissonance

A really nice Reator type blogger recently posted this. I'm not singling her out but I couldn't let this little gem pass unnoticed.

We are clearly in the spring selling season and as long as we don’t see any significant price erosion I think we will continue to see offers being made and contracts closing.

ASW: itsallgood

Labels: Housing

Forums Request Line

Too many forums and there's dimunition, too few and confusion. Tentative list:

The Dawgpile for piling on to sites or articles deserving our attention.
Dawggerel showcasing creative talents, song, pictures, etc.
AllThingsCasey nuf said.
Dawgma to discuss the esoteric economics type stuff.
Dawgpounding spotlight on disbelievers.
PaperTraining for newbies to ask questions.

Seems Nigel could get his own or preferably just threads under Dawgpounding.

Suggestions?

Labels: metablog

Crossing the line

Some people have no shame. For some strange reason Nigel has decided to pick a fight by trying to hold up individuals for ridicule. His site has a new post supposedly "outing" a regular poster here. While I didn't think this kind of stuff was acceptable behavoir I also have no compunction following his ethical compass. In the past I've elided personal and employment information but frankly this kind of anti-social behavior needs to be watched very carefully for our own protection. Post any information you fell relevant to keeping Nigel a responsible citizen.

Labels: Nigel

Waiting For A new Post?

That's just strange. People defer gratification for years so that they can own a home with 20% down and they will again. So be it. Go fer it.

Labels: metablog

Housing Sales Tank in Feburary

Shock, surprise. Actually I'm not surprised but then again I won't be surprised next month when the claim is that the decline was a simple glitch as mortage funded was disrupted by new standards next month. BFD, these datums are revised several times. Indeed this report retroactively changed the November '06 numbers.

I've been pondering the demographic shifts of a contracting housing market. First a few tidbits from our friends the Census:

Year Total Houses Crowded Severely Crowded
1940 34,447,032 6,964,894 20.2% 3,085,922 9.0%
1950 42,154,443 6,628,292 15.7% 2,607,717 6.2%
1960 53,023,875 6,113,473 11.5% 1,902,923 3.6%
1970 63,449,747 5,210,874 8.2% 1,408,416 2.2%
1980 80,389,673 3,648,445 4.5% 1,134,619 1.4%
1990 91,947,410 4,548,799 4.9% 1,911,867 2.1%
2000 105,480,101 6,057,890 5.7% 2,873,122 2.7%

1-PERSON OCCUPANCY RATES
2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 1940
25.8% 24.6% 22.7% 17.6% 13.3% 9.3% 7.7%

2000: 2.66 persons per dwelling unit.
2007: at the same 2.66 persons per dwelling unit would require 114,000,000 dwelling units.

Current estimate of housing stock: 128,000,000 dwelling units. Excess: 14 million dwelling units.

Gee does anyone think maybe 8 houses with ZERO occupancy had anything to do with this nonsense?

Labels: Housing

The spastic peepee dance of fury

Weeality intwudes in widdle Casey's wurld. Imagine the surprise that ownership comes with respnsibility and responsibility spurs owners to action. The lawn is mowed, the locks changed and Young Investor learns something new.

Labels: Casey

Serin Clan 2010

Inquiring minds want to know. THe story has spun out of their control. There is no under the radar anymore. Still little fish in a big story slip through the net. So what's everyone's prediction? Expeditied banckruptcy and trivial restitution with a token prison term? A promise to never own more than one house in exchange for moving to Michigan? Or will they slink off to a nice lakefront dacha with their coffee can and raise little Serins as pictured here?

Labels: Casey

The "Fannn" is Gawd

Casey Fannn has authored the seminal audio work to date on the trainwreck we call "Casey Not at the Wheel." The haterz™ have preserved it for all time and I've no doubt ten years from now it will still be being downloaded. Good work Fannnn and our eternal tanks.
Link to the grand opus: here.

Nigel See Nigel

Worse than derivative; sanitized and unoriginal. it ain't even a blog, it is more a narcacistic mirror of distortion. Internet masturbation with someone he loves. I tried a few posts but nothing sticks. Bored after a day. I won't waste my time, instead i'll get the forums based dawg pound up and running right away. If you see some bad clicks or funny code on the blog page this is why.

Labels: Nigel

This Ain't No USAToday

The Economist. Not some fluffy rag or throwaway PBS piece. A real magazine, with respect and reputation holds our very own Fliptard™ as a poster child of the comming collapse.

CASEY SERIN knows all about the excesses of America's housing bubble. In 2006 the 24-year old web designer from Sacramento bought seven houses in five months. He lied about his income on “no document” loans and was not asked for anything so old-fashioned as a deposit. Today Mr Serin has debts of $2.2m. Three of his houses have been repossessed; others could share that fate. His website, Iamfacingforeclosure.com, has become a magnet for those whose mortgages are in trouble.

Hat tip to long time reader/contributor Metroplexual.

Labels: Casey, Economics

Cult Status

How could we have missed it? All the signs from God were there. I feel so stupid.

Casey doesn't drink or so he says. Even his beverages of choice are uncafeinated. He treats his body like a temple.

Galina is dutiful and obiedient.

He never answered why Salt Lake City.

He calls himself a Christian but never identifies a denomination.

He budgeted for tithing.

His views on money and other things are strange to say the least.

In short he's everyone's worst stereotype. I vote: Mormon.

Labels: Casey

Zip Zip

This new murse completely zips up
so I can actually run with it
if I'm,
you know,
trying to run away from somebody
or catch somebody.

Run! Casey! Run!

Update:

OK, here are some quick links:

PART ONE: THE MURSE

PART TWO: THE UTAH WRAP, G'S EDUCATION AND CASEY'S HAIR

PART THREE: CREDIT CARDS, TAKING OUT TRASH AND FLIRTING WITH NIGEL

PART FOUR: JAMBA JUICE, PHONE BILLS AND HATERS

Coming soon:

PART FIVE: JOBS AND STUFF

PART SIX: FINANCIAL STRESS, RAMEN AND RELIGION

Great work Miguel!

Labels: Casey

John v. Nigel: TKO

My thanks to John and the other 'watchdawgs' for tracking down barking, and ultimately treeing that wily critter Nigel. For those not following the story so far;
Nigel Swaby got the taste of Casey's attention and got hooked. He's tried for months to hijack parts of the discussion to his own SLCblog. People would visit, declare it lame and either never visit again, go back few times to call it lame or in several cases get really pissed and whenever he active linked in other forums preempt his lameness. Ahhhh, but with Casey, now there was mudhole where everybody seemed to be wallowing dirty pigs. He'd fit right in. So like any good attention whore Nigel set up 'Donthatecasey" to build traffic and audience to feed his addiction. Problem is it turns out that it wasn't the SLCblog that was lame, it is NIGEL. Clue Deficit Disorder of the first order. Yesterday poor little Nigel tried to post abot the economic fallacy of zero sum as it applied to Casey. His conclusion? Casey's antics have hurt no one. Well, you can imagine how that went down with the dawgpack and that's where John and the others come in. We owe them thanks. They used logic and reason and probing inquiry to call Nigel a lamer without triggering NIGEL'S censorship. I can only hope these lessons stick. Yeah right, anyway let's do what we are good at. one or two can visit and post excerpts here where ou can call a turd a turd and have fun doing it. Again, thanks all.

Labels: Nigel

Theme Song?

I WANNA BE A FLIPTARD   
Writing code
 Another loser working in a cubicle
 9 to 5
 A slave driver telling me "Get off the blue ball!"
 A lousy job
 I kneel before them
 Misery beyond compare
 Sweating sucks

A stupid code drone
 What's he got against fresh air?
 I want a new tract and some sweet cashback
 Take me to the bank where the pretty girls aren't skank
 I, I, I wanna be a fliptard (flip, flip, flip, flip)
 I, I, I wanna flip your house
 I, I, I wanna be a fliptard (fliptard, fliptard)
 Hardly any straight clothes (fliptard)
 Brown grass between my toes (fliptard)
 Jamba Juice on my nose
 
Writing code
 Another loser working in a cubicle
 Is Galina getting fatter?
 What does it matter?

Nobody cares at all
 But next July, I'll say goodbye to every out-of-it, dull-witted fool
 Convert their feet into meters, marking distance at the swimming pool
 Agent blondes revealing tanlines
 I'll make more moves than Allied Van Lines
 I, I, I wanna be a fliptard (be a big man, now...get a great tan, now)
 I, I, I wanna flip your house
 I, I, I wanna be a fliptard (fliptard, fliptard)
 Sitting on my chair (fliptard)
 Screwing lenders, I don't care (fliptard)
 Jamba juice on my nose
 I, I, I wanna be a fliptard (flip,help,help,help)
 I, I, I wanna flop your life
 I, I, I wanna be a fliptard (fliptard, fliptard)
 Lounging on the deck (fliptard)
 Noose 'round my neck (fliptard)
 White stuff in my nose
 I, I, I wanna be a fliptard (fliptard, fliptard)

Labels: Casey, snarky

FMT LEND and the PPT

What in the world makes LEND worth 25% more today than yesterday? 140% more than a week ago?

Here's a real time chart.

This is the big players screwing the shorts. Blatant market manipulation. Just like the HNs on more obvious.

Labels: Economics

Hicks Tix Pics

Labels: Casey

Googlepalooza

No prizes, just EN bragging rights. Our favorite chew toy is supposedly #10 with a "foreclosure" google search.

Clearly we can do better. Since I am out of contention I set the standard with "stupid idiot criminal flipper" and only got #7. "Mortgage fraud failed flipper" gets me a #6.

Room to improve.

Labels: Casey

Road Trip

National Lampoon's "Animal House" said it all. Dandy-loin went snowboarding because there was nothing left to loose. He took his own pics because Babuhska didn't come. All the bridges are burned.

Labels: Casey

Fire, Aim, Ready!

Casey has a Plan:

Step 2: Give out financial advice for money
Step 1: Register with the State of California as an "Investment Adviser."

He's skirted the radar for far longer than most of us expected but he's now decided to fly straight into a sh!tstorm like he has never dreamed. The California Department of Corporations wil come down on him so hard and so fast Jamba Juice will be squirting out of every orrifice including a few new ones.

Labels: Casey

Nigelpalozza (Nigelpaloser)

What a complete retard. Now that he's set up a gatekeepered forum people will merely have to "sign up" and hate away on the subjects that Casey represents. We've seen what happens to people of whom Nigel garners information. This is a knat that carries a plague. He's also obviously got something to hide. Must be something about being in the real estate for obscene profit industries that causes people to lose perspective. Instead of sitting down and STFU Nigel, like Casey, seems to think a high profile bluster and diversion tactic works. Oh, and I know it's tough but let's cut back on the buttmunching bunboy backside boytoy bit. The constant referals are now so pervasive that they work against our purposes. Let the venting commence.

Labels: Nigel

41 lenders have now gone kaput

While the "lenders" part isn't entirely accurate the sentiment is there. These are sometimes lenders and sometime mere originators. Congratulations and keep up the good work over at "Implode-O-Meter"

Labels: Housing

Spring Housing Bounce Also Expected

http://dqnews.com/RRCA0307.shtm

One Word Description Needed

Implosion is taken. Even my one word alluded to by the picture is cliché. Is meltdown one word? Precipice is too time sensitive as is abyss. Surely history will make its own decision as the dear Baron discovered. Perhaps the coming conflagaration will be named after a person or place; the big Mozillo, rise and fall of the inland empire. Who knows? EN knows and will take a stab at here.

One word, one word only please.

Labels: Housing

Who Needs Wiki

Since truthiness in Wikipedia is fast devolving into caution in the face of uncomfortable facts it is only a matter of time before the Casey reference is pulled entirely. Tough noogies wiki. EN has archived the latest version and we'll do our own.

Labels: Casey

Happy EleventyThousandth Visitor

the little bug at the bottom ticked over one hundred eleven thousand one hundred and eleven earlier today. Thanks to all and this is your chance to "make a wish." As the new site is finalized any last minute requests or suggestions? Keep it clean, well keep entertaining if you can't keep it clean.

Labels: metablog

Nigel responds

Nigel has done what Casey would not. He's answered a question. Sort of. Well exactly like Casey. I asked if he was involved and he said... well see for yourself and read between the lines.

----
70. Nigel Swaby
March 15th, 2007 at 12:24 pm
#41 “Rob Dawg”

nigel involved in the wrap?

Rob Dawg my dear, mortgage brokers don’t do wraps as there is no new institutional lender involved. Only real estate agents use wraps since they get paid their commissions. Only a title company/property attorney can actually execute a wrap.

Just like you, I did not know Casey until I ran across his blog. Until last week, I had never even met him.

Your question is a red herring meant only to cast doubt on me. You know the truth. Here is my answer for this board to see.

Nigel
----

Anybody else waste their time like me in graduate courses in symbolic logic and set theory? BTW Nigels boot ain't big 'nuf to get to call me dear. Classic sophomoric tactic to try and debase an opponent rather than address the issues. The really cool thing is the code of ethics for Utah mortgage brokers and their sworn obligation to report questionable practices.

Labels: Casey

Comfort Food

Clearly there's a core of afficionados of the finer things. I've subscribed to the maxum that life is too short to swill the cheap sh¡t and If you can't afford the good stuff you shouldn't be kicking back until you can anyway. So, Bacchus and gods of Meade have smiled upon many in the form of Trader Joe's. TJs provides interesting food and drink at very good prices. They sell Fat Tire for instance. They also sell "off label" items like Admiral Joe's Gin. They can't tell you who makes it for them ($8/750ml) due to marketing agreements but they caution that too much could leave you "bombed at the bay." Wink wink. Personally, as we consume about 2gal/day of non-fat or 1% milk their policy of no rBST dairy means my girls get to remain girls for their entire childhoods with no hormone ingested early menarche. Two Buck Chuck is kinda lame but Peter's Brand beer is top notch and half the grocery store prices. Blue corn tortilla chips with Califonia mild cheddar melted on top... mmmm.

Hey, we can't be all hate all the time. Say something positive.

Labels: Culture, metablog

Bear Stearns = BS

These guys out Casey even Casey. Complete utter bullsh!t, lies and smokescreen.

in this article article, BS claims opportunity to invest in distressed mortgage products. [BS] expects to see large bulk sales of troubled mortgages over the next several months, providing an opportunity for the investment bank to make money from the turmoil.

They haven't even peered into the abyss and they are already planning for the bottomfishing. A$$hats.

Labels: Economics

I Feel an (overdraft) Draft

No wonder Snowflake bundles up.

Labels: Casey

Fliptard and Sundries

"The problem with defending the purity of the English language is that English is about as pure as a cribhouse whore. We don't just borrow words; on occasion, English has pursued other languages down alleyways to beat them unconscious and rifle their pockets for new vocabulary." - James D Nicholl

Post any special words, phrases, acronyms here. Spread the joy.

Labels: metablog

CA-AHSR

I love it. A decade ago I explained how CA-ASHR would proceed. This is the latest fantasy. The only reason I mention it at all is because halfway through one commentor says $41 billion which was my prediction in 1995.

Labels: transportation

Land Use Restrictions

A woman from Los Angeles, who was a tree hugger and an anti-hunter, purchased a piece of forestland. There was a large tree on one of the highest points in the tract. She wanted a good view of the natural splendor of her land so she started to climb the big tree. As she neared the top she encountered a spotted owl that attacked her. In her haste to escape, the woman slid down the tree to the ground and got many splinters in her crotch. In considerable pain, she hurried to the nearest doctor. She told him she was an environmentalist and an anti-hunter and how she came to get all the splinters. The doctor listened to her story with great patience and then told her to go into the examining room and he would see if he could help her. She sat and waited three hours before the doctor reappeared. The angry woman demanded, "What took you so long?" He smiled and then told her, "Well, I had to get permits from the Environmental Protection the Forest Service and the Bureau of Land Management before I could remove old-growth timber from a recreational area. I'm sorry, but they turned me down."

Labels: snarky

Google is your friend

I googled "chris record nru pyramid scheme" and found this discussion . Fascinating.

Labels: Casey

I Call Bullsh!t

Alright, I admit it. I'm angry. This sh!thead wants in your face haterz™? He's got one. He's fraking with my kids' future and he doesn't care. There's so much here everybody just take one paragraph and respond. I'll assemble the commentary into a new unified post.

Casey Serin (born September 10, 1982) is a failed real estate investor who, at the age of 24, became known as the “poster child for everything that went wrong in the real estate boom”. Serin was born in Uzbekistan and emigrated to America in the mid-1990s. In his early twenties, Serin was working as a php script programmer for Pride Industries. (a group that employs mentally disabled people), but he decided to quit this job with the hope of earning a living flipping houses. Beginning in October 2005 and continuing through the following year, Serin purchased eight houses in various U.S. states, and then began blogging about the process of facing foreclosure on several of the properties he was unable to sell before his money ran out.

Background

Although Serin was unemployed (with no ostensible income) when he bought the houses, he chose to declare on his loan applications that he was employed and earned a steady income…

I was employed at Pride Industries for over a year (Since Aug ~~2005~~ 2004) making $50,000/yr salary when I applied for the Calla Way, Sacramento house in September/October 2005. My income was just shy of doing a full-doc loan so we had to go stated-income. The income was stated a little higher then I was really making in order to qualify. I was told this was a common and allowable industry practice.

I bought the house slightly under value ($330K) with built-in $30K of equity which I chose to cash-out right at purchase by buying at full appraisal value of $360K with 100% financing. (My FICO score was only about 630, I think). I used the money to pay off our $30K of credit cards: about 15K was from Russ Whitney RE seminars and the rest was expenses from wedding in 2004 and miscellaneous consumer debt.

After some cleaning I immediately started marketing Calla Way myself (without an agent) in order to sell it at retail quickly and pay off my loan. I ended up selling the house on January 4th for full retail value (360K+costs) and simultaneously buying the buyer’s old house - Burdett Way, Sacramento. I didn’t want to lose the buyer and didn’t want to wait for their old house to sell so I put the transaction together to where we bought each other’s houses. This allowed me to secure the $30,000 as profit which up to that point was really part of the original loan.

The truth is I was a bit desperate to sell Calla Way because I didn’t want to start making payments on it and I knew the market was starting to reverse so I had to act quickly and make the deal work. I also got a little emotionally involved when I found out the buyer is a family trying to move to a better school district and safer neighborhood for the kids. I wanted to help them out and ended up paying too much for Burdett considering its condition and location. I figured trading down to a lower mortgage amount (295K) was still a smart move because it will be easier to service the payments.

By the way, I applied for Burdett property while still being employed at Pride Industries but had to use a stated income loan again. The stated income was within reasonable parameters for my job title (Programmer/Analyst) and it was justifiable at the time based on the advice I’ve been given by the real estate professionals working with me.

After that I tried to lease option the Burdett property while looking for more deals. Since paying off my credit cards my score went up to around 680. I was ready for more action.

In early January 2006 I took a 3 week leave of absence from my job at Pride Industries and flew with some investors to Albuquerque, New Mexico, which was a hot area for investing. There I put two houses under contract (Sonora Way and Guadalajara).

I came back to my job and found myself so busy managing all these deals that it was starting to affect my programming job performance in a big way. I didn’t feel it was fair to my employer to be doing my business on company time. So I ended up resigning from my job the same week and (end of January 2006) to pursue real estate investing/flipping full time.

I also had a side business doing freelance web design, web application development and hosting. I’ve have been doing the web business on and off for the last 10 years. I used the business to qualify for all of the loans going forward. Since it was hard to verify income from the business continued to use stated-income loans.

The only loan where I didn’t state my income was the Angleridge property in Dallas. There I got a loan from a hard money lender and they normally don’t even check credit because they only lend upto 65% LTV and thus are pretty secure with just the collateral.

… Serin has repeatedly admitted that he lied on his loan applications regarding his employment and his intention to reside in the purchased homes. To avoid lenders seeing that he had taken out multiple loans, he used several lenders for the various properties, and filled out the loan applications within a short time frame, so that the loans would not have sufficient time to appear during a credit check…

See my explanation of employment above. I did not lie about employment but I did state my income (within reason) to meet the debt-to-income ratio for each particular loan amount.

I did run each each loan as an “owner occupied property” or as a “second home” in order to qualify for 100% financing. I didn’t have any other properties at the time and I was buying all of them so fast that the credit report didn’t show all the other loans right away. This allowed me to justify the owner-occupied or second-home status. At the time this seemed OK to me and the professionals I was working with.

… In addition, he received cash back at closing on most of the properties — for his California properties, Serin received more than California’s legal maximum rate of 3 percent of the selling price.

Yes, I got cash back at closing through different methods. Sometimes disclosed on the closing statement, sometimes not. Either way I didn’t realize this was fraudulent behavior, I just thought the lenders didn’t like it. I definitely didn’t think I was committing any kind of a crime.

Cash-back at close is a pretty common technique among the real estate investors and associates that I collaborated with at the local investment clubs. I just thought it was a great way to finance repairs and payments for the fix-n-flip investment strategy.

The cash-back money was spent on both the mortgage payments for the houses, and on various luxuries such as a Hawaiian vacation for Serin and his wife.

Almost all of the cash-back went toward the repairs and servicing the 15-20K monthly burn-rate on 6 properties (at the peak) which includes mortgage payments, taxes, insurance, utilities, travel expenses, etc. Some of the money (about 15K, I think) went toward additional real estate seminars so I can get better and learn new techniques.

We also used the money for living expenses since this was our main business during 2006. The goal was to buy at wholesale, take some of the equity out at close, pay a few payments, fix up the properties and sell at retail and pickup an additional profit on the sale. Since I quit my programmer job I had to use some of the cash-back to live on while we wait for the houses to sell.

I never intended to commit any kind of fraud by taking the cash out and letting the property foreclose. My goal was to make a business out of it. I simply got overzealous and made some beginner mistakes. How many new business owners don’t make any mistakes?

And yes, I did take my wife for a surprise anniversary trip to Hawaii. We haven’t gone on a real vacation since we got married and I wanted to do something special for her. This was not a lavish or extravagant trip by any means. We even saved money by living with a friend for part of the week.

In a matter of months, the money largely ran out, and Serin is now 2.2 million dollars in debt, with a net worth of around negative $600,000. Interest in his blog at http://iamfacingforeclosure.com developed first among readers of blogs devoted to the United States housing bubble. His story was featured in USA Today, National Public Radio, and the San Francisco Chronicle, among other mainstream media. An online discussion of the fraudulent nature of overstating income in stated income loan applications uses the case of Serin as a running example.

Many readers of the blog initially encouraged Serin to contact an attorney in the hopes of discharging at least a portion of his debt by filing bankruptcy. Serin has largely ignored this relatively sound advice, in favor of essentially ignoring the problem and letting his debt burden grow daily.

I did consult a couple of different bankruptcy on several occasions. Filing bankruptcy is not a magic pill and has many consequences and issues that need to be considered. Every case is different depending on the desired outcome.

In my case I chose to avoid bankruptcy and attempt to pay back the debt by selling the houses and/or pay back most of it by doing a short sale and avoiding foreclosure on my credit score. If I was to declare bankruptcy it would have interfered with the short sale process and would have forced all the lenders to foreclose on me for sure. (With the exception of maybe one of the homes if I would choose to move into it.)

Chapter 7 bankruptcy doesn’t prevent foreclosure, it simply delays it 1-3 months. The secured lenders still have the right to liquidate the asset and will exercise that right in order to minimize loses. Even if my mortgage is discharged in bankruptcy the lenders still get to foreclose on the house - their collateral. Then I would have both a bankruptcy AND a foreclosure on my credit.

Chapter 13 bankruptcy (the repayment plan) wouldn’t have helped me much either because I didn’t have a stable income or a large enough income to try to negotiate a repayment plan on 6 houses. Chance are I would probably miss a payment and the houses go right back into foreclosure. I didn’t want to sight up for something I can’t commit. Even if I was to get a job there is no way I can earn enough per month to get on a repayment plan to catchup and float the amount of debt I have/had. Chapter 13 would also prevent me from doing a short sale on the properties and avoid foreclosure on my record.

Anybody who says “why don’t just declare bankruptcy” without considering all of the issues above obviously doesn’t know what their talking about. On the moral side, I felt declaring bankruptcy would have been equal to giving up the fight and walking away instead of trying to make it right.

Various readers of Serin’s blog have estimated that the interest on his debt is growing at the rate of approximately $600 per day. Serin has been referred to as the “pied piper of financial ruin”, and his plans for remedying his debt have many readers wondering if he is being overly optimistic, or if he is in denial over the gravity of his financial situation. In early 2007, Serin set his goals for returning to fiscal solvency — he plans on amassing an even greater debt burden by attempting to purchase an apartment complex.

Perhaps the apartment idea was a bit extreme. But what am I going to gain be being a pessimist?? Positive thinking is what kept me going all these months. Sure, some of my ideas get a little crazy but I didn’t want to just give up without a fight. “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take” is the quote that comes to mind.

In addition, Serin has proposed to transfer his personal debts to a shell corporation purchased with the sole aim of hiding his debt, a course of action that numerous people have advised him is blatantly illegal. Serin initially conceded that there might be something “shady” about his proposal, although he has gone so far as talking to a corporate attorney about the plan.

See the problem with my ~~haters~~ critics is that most of them don’t understand enough about what I’m doing to give me competent advice. Everybody is quick to judge and since they have already made up their minds about me, everything I do is going to be “shady” to them.

Buying an existing corporation and applying for cash lines of credit with the help of a credit partner is a perfectly acceptable and legal business practice. I can even borrow from the corporation to refinance my person credit, as long as that’s not the only purpose of the corporation’s existence. My goal was to continue doing real estate and other types of investing with my corporation. So I may or may not use the cash lines of credit to refinance my debt. There are several issues to consider and I’m still in the process of seeking advice and figuring all that out.

Despite his repeated public admissions (both via the blog and on a webcam video) of lying on loan applications and committing felony mortgage fraud, Serin has not yet been arrested for these crimes — although IP logs of the visitors to his blog have shown that the blog has been accessed by the FBI, the IRS, the SEC, various state governments, and banks from which his fraudulent loans were obtained. Various readers of the blog, angry at Serin’s complete inaction, have attempted to alert the relevant authorities to Serin’s blog. In early 2007, Serin started up two further real estate websites: ablebuyer.com and buyingapartmentbuildings.com, though the second address now directs visitors to the first.

Criticism

Serin is regularly criticized on both his blog and other blogs specifically devoted to his story. A number of specific criticisms that have been leveled at Serin include:

* Disdain for standard university education in lieu of real estate guru seminars, for which Serin spent over $30,000, including training at [NRU].

I have nothing against standard college education. Colleges teach you how to be a good employee. Nothing wrong with that because everybody needs to have a job for stability at some point in their lives. Going to college will make you more employable and you will make more money. But a job will not make you truly financially independent.

I decided to go straight for the business owner / entrepreneur / investor route and those skills are not typically acquired through college (though college can help with some aspects of it). I still have a desire to go to college someday but do it purely for personal growth and for the benefits of a well-rounded education. That would be after I become financially independent.

Even though I don’t regret the path I’ve taken I would recommend to all high school students to still go to college first, even if they want to be financially free. Just don’t get too brainwashed.

By the way, NRU was only about 16K for over 30 classes and 2 years of education (a bargain compared to seminar companies). It was a private loan with flexible repayment terms which include the ability repay the loan by working it off. NRU is much more than just some fly-by-night guru seminar. They are the only real estate investing educational company to receive college credit recommendation by the American Counsel of Education (ACE). They also have local communities of investors for support, a network of positive cash-flow properties and a bunch of other benefits. And no, this blog is not some cover-up to market NRU. Again, the critics and blowing things out of proportion.

* Not looking for full-time work, rather than living off his over-extended credit cards.

Why is full-time work considered the standard? I do work full-time on my own projects as a self-employed individual and do make some money there and here - technical consulting, online marketing, sales, helping other investors do deals, etc. Just because those are not traditional jobs doesn’t mean it’s wrong. Yes, what I’m doing right now is not super stable and I have/am considering a standard W2. We’ll see.

While I did continue to borrow some money AFTER facing foreclosure and starting this blog, it has been limited to trying to float my wife’ credit cards and also short term loans for business purposes. We haven’t been going into any more debt for living expenses much.

* Not declaring bankruptcy — however, a bankruptcy attorney told Serin that he may be prosecuted for fraud if he files for bankruptcy.

That is one consideration but there are a lot of other issues with bankruptcy. See my explanation above and my prior posts about bankruptcy.

* Living beyond his means — Serin’s bank statements posted to his blog showed expenses relating to dining out regularly, incurring repeated overdraft fees in the process.

How can you assume a pattern from one instance of an event? I don’t overdraft my checking account on a regular basis and I rarely go out to eat to nice places. But even if I do enjoy an occasional wheatgrass shot at Jamba Juice, soy latte at Starbucks, naturally-raised carnitas burrito at Chipotle, semi-healthy burger at In-n-Out or my new favorite whole-grain pasta with artichoke and grilled salmon at Macaroni Grill. Just because I’m facing foreclosure doesn’t mean I should stop living a normal life!

* Being evasive about how he spends each day, given that he doesn’t work.

I have a lot of projects that I’m working on and I don’t want to talk about it too much because the hat… er… critics are following my every move and are ready to dish out hate on everything I do. I have a right to privacy and just because I share a lot on my blog doesn’t mean I have to share every single thing I do.

* Attempting to use unethical and/or illegal methods (i.e., shell corporation) to get out of debt.

I already addressed this and if done right, there is nothing wrong with my corporate strategy.

* Serin’s determination to continue as a real estate investor despite his current abject failure in that field.

Failure is part of success. Show me one successful person that has not failed a bunch of times (big or small). Failure is how we learn. Failure is good. The goal, of course, is to minimize failure by learning from it and not repeating the same mistake. I’m still learning that part.

Determination to succeed is the key ingredient of those who succeed. But I don’t need to explain this. It’s common sense. Those of you who are telling me I’m a failure because I happen to make a mistake are a bunch of babies. Grow up!!

Completely ignoring his current bills, and looking for more credit lines with subprime lenders like CashCall.

This is inaccurate. I am paying my personal bills and rent. I am NOT paying credit cards and mortgages because I can’t handle the debt load at this point. And NO, I am not getting any more personal credit from CashCall or any other company. Some people love to spread false rumors.

* Serin’s refusal to live in any of the houses he purchased, possibly delaying the foreclosure process.

How is me living in the houses going to delay the foreclosure process? I’m not living in the houses because I’m trying to sell them and marketing a vacant house makes it sell much faster. Plus, many of the houses are not move-in ready. The bills and maintenance is higher in a house rather then renting a room like we’re doing now. And its a waste of time and money moving around only to have to move again in a couple of months because I lost the house to foreclosure.

Serin’s personal eccentricities: his habitually unkempt haircut, his carrying a purse, and his obsession with juicing.

Why are you attacking my style and health choices? It’s not a purse. It’s a MAN bag. Big difference.

Inability to reconcile his purported Christian faith with his actions, particularly his mooching off his family and in-laws.

I’m not mooching off anybody. I’m paying rent for the rooms and my family willingly helps me with food from time to time. I’m in a time of distress and am blessed to have such great family support.

In addition, more than one website has arisen whose main focus is following Serin’s postings and actions in a critical manner. Serin has referred to these sites as “hater sites”.

That’s right. Haters!

Personal Life

Casey Konstantin Serin is married to […]. His wife does not participate in the blog or other publicity, although publicly-available documents filed with various county offices indicate that she participated in some of the financial deals. In addition, Serin has photographically documented his wife playing a part in some of the alleged rehabilitation of the properties. They currently live with Serin’s sister-in-law in West Sacramento, California.

It’s very obvious that my wife doesn’t want to be mentioned online. Why are some people so determined to violate her privacy by posting her name everywhere? I took down pictures of her shortly after I started the blog per her request. The haters have saved cached versions of the pictures and spread them all over the internet. That’s just not right.

The public record has her name because in order to hold California property in just my name as a married man I must have my wife deed her interest in the property to me upon purchase. It’s a standard procedure and if you know nothing about real estate don’t spread false rumors.

She was involved with my business to a degree. She went with me to some of the seminars and helped me do some of the account and administrative work. She also tried supervising contractors one time but that didn’t work out very well. She was not on any of the loans except for the one in Dallas where the lender insisted to have both of us on there. Aside from that this whole real estate thing has been pretty much my baby.

Themes and Catch Phrases

Serin is very fond of using catchphrases and buzzwords on his blog, perhaps as a by-product of his preference for get-rich-quick gurus over conventional education. He frequently talks about finding “sweet deals”, “repaying every dirty penny”, and “falling forward”. These phrases are often mentioned sarcastically in his blog’s comments, generally mocking Serin’s exuberant optimism. Serin also likes to end postings with a cheerful “It’s all good!”, even at the end of a post that otherwise describes a situation of utter financial ruin.

There are also numerous references to Jamba Juice and Macaroni Grill on his blog, which stem from a post on November 21, 2006, in which Serin reproduced, but later withdrew, a photo of a recent bank statement. His blog’s readers immediately spotted that despite his dire financial predicament, he was still a regular customer at these establishments. With almost no money in his checking account, Serin had incurred numerous overdraft charges, and had essentially been paying upwards of $38 for a drink that normally cost less than $5. Since then, the names of these two restaurants are repeatedly cited in attached comments — usually with the intention of symbolizing examples of luxuries that Serin cannot realistically afford, but to which he nonetheless feels entitled.

I’ve already explained the Macaroni grill and Jamba Juice. As far as “catch phrases”, those are part of my regular speech. I write this blog in a conversational style. I’m not trolling, just being real.

…

As you can see my Wikipedia entry is filled with highly biased opinions, inacruate information, and assumptions. This is hurting my reputation and I consider it libelous. I love Wikipedia but we need to do our part to keep it fair and balanced. Don’t just read, jump in and edit.

----
The sh!thead wants FAIR?

Labels: Casey

Edjucation

Afore I couldn't spel enginer. Now I are one.

Labels: Economics

Talk About Nigel

Can you believe the dummy walking into a gun club meeting waving a knife and picking a fight? Threatening people with employer reporting because they speak their mind? I knew he was arrogant and unseasoned but vindictive? Not enough that he practices the most insidious forms of anti-democracy by censoring and misinforming on his own blog he wants to spead his poison elsewhere. I say no.

Labels: Nigel

Entitlement Obfuscation

Lou Minatti thinks Ben Bernake will fall off the tightrope he walks and send in the helicopters. I think the helicopters are already here in the form of M3 money supply. It is only a matter of time before we are using pesodollars to paper over the entitlement promises we cannot keep.

Labels: Economics

Cheney Halliburton et al

Akubi was a bit concerned about my stability. I made a comment Halliburton moving to Dubai is the most American, patriotic and selfless thing possible. By doing so H affirms our freedom od travel and commerce and more. By doing so H votes with their feet concerning taxes and international commitments. H sends a message that California doesn't and any child understands. Don't kill the goose that lays the golden eggs.

Okay that sounds like I think H is a good company. It most certainly is not. What they did however is act correctly in both their business and our generasl interests. Even a questionable organization can still occassionaly do the right thing.

Alright, the nerve is struck. Let the haterzz™ descend. I would appreciate more substance than "Cheney sux" or "H is corrupt." Go for a little cheese with that whine.

Labels: Economics

loan: n. An act of lending

Yeah right. Nowadays "lending" means speculating with OPM and making your money on the front end.

Labels: Economics

Exurban Nation

Saturday, March 31, 2007

The Aftermath

ItsAllGoodathon Ch 2

Some Kids Never Learn

Staring Into the Abyss

Friday, March 30, 2007

$220 or ELSE

Casey Don't Even Own Casey

literally nickels on the dollar

Countdown to Manifesto

Thursday, March 29, 2007

Free Range Parking

"sadness, regret and relief"

Is Blogging Dirty

Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Important Safety Note

Cognitive Dissonance

Tuesday, March 27, 2007

Forums Request Line

Crossing the line

Monday, March 26, 2007

Waiting For A new Post?

Housing Sales Tank in Feburary

The spastic peepee dance of fury

Sunday, March 25, 2007

Serin Clan 2010

Friday, March 23, 2007

The "Fannn" is Gawd

Nigel See Nigel

Thursday, March 22, 2007

This Ain't No USAToday

Cult Status

Zip Zip

Wednesday, March 21, 2007

John v. Nigel: TKO

Tuesday, March 20, 2007

Theme Song?

FMT LEND and the PPT

Hicks Tix Pics

Monday, March 19, 2007

Googlepalooza

Road Trip

Fire, Aim, Ready!

Sunday, March 18, 2007

Nigelpalozza (Nigelpaloser)

Saturday, March 17, 2007

41 lenders have now gone kaput

Friday, March 16, 2007

Spring Housing Bounce Also Expected

One Word Description Needed

Who Needs Wiki

Thursday, March 15, 2007

Happy EleventyThousandth Visitor

Nigel responds

Comfort Food

Bear Stearns = BS

Wednesday, March 14, 2007

I Feel an (overdraft) Draft

Fliptard and Sundries

CA-AHSR

Land Use Restrictions

Google is your friend

I Call Bullsh!t

Edjucation

Talk About Nigel

Entitlement Obfuscation

Cheney Halliburton et al

Tuesday, March 13, 2007

loan: n. An act of lending

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