There's a lot of confusion being deliberately sown over the ongoing debate pitting SMARTMode and SmUG. For those who don't have their Exurban Nation secret decoder ring handy SMARTMode is Standard Municipalities And Regular Transport Modalities. SmUG has enjoyed such a widespread acceptance it almost needs no explanation; Smart Urban Growth. Unfortunately the SmUGLers (Lovers) are the same would be ruling class social control freaks that have brought us 3 generations of failed built environment attempts to cure societal ills with forced living patterns. Okay, enough general introduction. The idea has been repeated so often that it has aquired a patina of certitude: The Exurbs will suffer disproportionately in the post bubble housing market. Like all big ideas there's a kernel of truth that cannot be ignored. And like all big lies that kernel is twisted to a conclusion. First it is necessary to understand the issue of form exurb versus cenurb as separate from other factors such as energy, growth and demographics as well as decades long demographic trends. The places that will suffer the most are the recently high growth areas for but one issue. Wherever there has been recent large scale growth there will be more housing trouble. This is but one aspect that needs to be teased from the Exurb/Cenurb debate. But I need to hear some assertions. In the lead in thread "Four Horsemen" energy, commute times and similar characteristics were mentioned. Repeat them here but if you think the Exurbs are less energy efficient please expand by telling me why. The biggest problem in these discussions is getting past assertion to the facts. Thanks.
33 comments:
FIRST !!!
TAKE THAT BABY ! MURST !!!
THIRST!
Mickey Mouse housing. One house like the other. Same landscaping same colors. Geometrically placed on identical sized properties. In each garage an Escalade pickup for commuting 180 minutes everyday in congested highway and city traffic.
HOA association rivaling with SA/SS methods to keep the looks of the community perfect and prevent any noise.
Isn't that the American dream ? Must be as I have never seen something like it anywhere else in the world....
The reality that will shape the exurbs' future is that they are dependent on both the urban centers and adjoining suburban areas. A significant number of exurban dwellers, if not a majority, commute to jobs in the city, and "commute" to retailing and entertainment centers in the suburbs.
Of course there are some telecommuters, and some local retail, but these are not major factors in the exurban communities. That is in contrast to true rural centers, which are largely self-contained, with mining and agricultural employment and local retail. The exurbs are just as dependent on the urban centers and suburbs as the suburbs are dependent on the urban centers, and traffic patterns are only one indicator of that.
The exurbs are, in many ways, free riders; they take advantage of job availability in the urban centers without paying for high-density infrastructure (especially transportation), and take advantage of retail in the suburban areas without "paying" for ugly sprawl and vast amounts of parking.
But the urban centers have had enough of the free riders, and are figuring out numerous ways of imposing "taxes", including toll roads and the much hated congestion fees. The built-in costs for public transportation are another hidden tax. Riders from VA and MD benefit from DC's Metro but their respective states and counties don't kick in enough to compensate; the solution? Metro charges more for riders originating outside of the District.
Of course there will be some "job flight" out of the urban centers to the suburbs; but the suburbs have bills to pay, and it's only a matter of time before expensive parking, toll roads, and high retail taxes begin working their way outward. The exurbs will continue to have lower density and more open space than the urban centers, but the wages vs cost of living arbitrage that they've benefited from over the last couple of decades is going to disappear fast, and gas costs are only one component of that.
How far out of a city would you say that an exurb actually has to be? I can see that such areas will be hit in a recession because of higher gas prices and falling house prices but the "survivors" of such a shake out will just learn to live with driving diesel small cars or similar. Or am I missing something? (In case some of you don't know or hadn't worked it out I'm in the UK - but I speak American reasonably well - and our "gas" prices are about $9 a gallon)
I think in many ways, the exurbs are simply parasitic - they consume without producing, having often replaced such low value uses as dairy farms, or watershed, or orchards or run down and often no longer functioning industrial areas - towns long past their heyday as a place with factories or mills.
Of course, this pretty much extends to America itself, the land of the empty 40' container.
What a fascinating metaphor - after filling the new exurbs with goods imported from other continents, America still retains its throwaway mentality even with freight containers, just letting them stack up, since there is little the rest of the world wants that Americans actually produce.
@ Wankspittle:
diesel small cars
In the long run, you're probably right. I'll go one further: Eventually current hybrid technology will be rejected in favor of simpler and more efficient gas- or diesel-electric drive, just like in a locomotive. The user experience for such things will be quite different, though, so we'll have to have some real pain before that happens.
The immediate problem with diesel is pollution. VW has had to pull its diesels from the US market because they don't meet new regulations for (IIRC) sulphur output. Hopefully they'll be back, but at the moment I can't think of anybody that's selling a small diesel-powered car in the US.
our "gas" prices are about $9 a gallon
Which gallon?
...since there is little the rest of the world wants that Americans actually produce.
Not so fast....I think you are forgetting exports like ideology, air pollution, weapons and genetically modified crops. Some of that can very well go into containers for shipment.....
America still retains its throwaway mentality even with freight containers, just letting them stack up, since there is little the rest of the world wants that Americans actually produce.
America's products are shipped FedEX overnight International Priority Expedited in envelopes. If the US were paid for all the stolen intellectual property the CA would at the very least reverse if not reverse double.
Rob Dawg:
" This is but one aspect that needs to be teased from the Exurb/Cenurb debate. But I need to hear some assertions. In the lead in thread "Four Horsemen" energy, commute times and similar characteristics were mentioned. Repeat them here but if you think the Exurbs are less energy efficient please expand by telling me why. "
Exurbs, as I've seen it in my area,(VA side of Metro DC), are seeing the most drastic corrections. I reckon that this is because they were the most stoopidly inflated priced of the rest.
But...and this is a big one, if the exurbs median home price keeps correcting, they will start to become very attractive to residents of older, "inner-ring 'burbs".
If, for the same price, you could get a post WW2 Cape Cod, (Falls Church Gulch, for those of you local DC'ers),full of asbestos, lead paint, old mechanicals, small rooms and no garages OR a 1995-2005 built townhome, is the commute going to make THAT much of a difference?
@ Ogg
Wondered why diesels never got a mention there. Right, it's the Sulphur. What about bio-diesel then?
Small sub-compact sized stuff, with common rail injection or similar techie tweakery and you can get around 60 mpg on a run. Audi A2 comes to mind.
$9 a gallon, sorry that was a rough guess, I'm a bit out. I knew someone would ask so it's about £0.939 / litre at present. The comp goes roughly like:
$2 = £1
litres to US gallons = .2642
Price = .939 * 2 / .2642 = $7.11
Does that look right?
..were paid for all the stolen intellectual property..
Stolen? Oh come on....we are sending the detailed information to all the manufacturers in China for them to make for us on the cheap. And then we whine that they are making knockoffs and steal ideas?!
The patent system as America would like to impose it to the world is doomed. The emergent markets like India and China will give a rats ass about any patents American companies hold. The American market is shrinking and so is the foreign dependency on it. Soon the gloves will come off.....
How can you expect making money on ideas alone? America is loosing of its industrial power every single day, and patents or IP will not prevent that.
But...and this is a big one, if the exurbs median home price keeps correcting, they will start to become very attractive to residents of older, "inner-ring 'burbs".
If, for the same price, you could get a post WW2 Cape Cod, (Falls Church Gulch, for those of you local DC'ers),full of asbestos, lead paint, old mechanicals, small rooms and no garages OR a 1995-2005 built townhome, is the commute going to make THAT much of a difference?
No I would agree it won't. Also where it will make a difference is where the residents have "teleworker" jobs that they can do from home some of the time and only have to commute to the office a couple of days a week. Whether that means in the future some exurbs become "popular" as being still affluent and consisting of a reasonable proportion of such people, while other areas become "ghost towns" as they aren't as popular and no one can afford to commute from there, is open to debate.
For what it's worth, I figure I'll pay a few hundred dollars less for gas this year than I did two years ago. Some of that is a result of getting a modestly more efficient car, but most of it comes from driving a lot less. I figure I'll put on about 5k miles this year. Obviously many people live in situations where that's just not possible.
For Wankspittle and any other damn foreigners around here, it's reckoned that the US average is 12k miles per year. That's around 19,000km or 9,600 furlongs.
Someone just posted this on IAFF:
190. Richard McBeef
May 7th, 2007 at 12:53 pm Casey has been arrested and is awaiting transport at the Sacramento County Sheriffs way station in Elk Grove. I have a friend who is an officer (and a reader of this blog, no names please) he tipped me off this morning. Sounds like he’s getting hit with a Federal indictment and will be handed over to them later this evening.
Guess it had to catch up with him sometime. Goodnight funny man. :sadwave:
Good. Finally we are seeing a little questioning of assumptions. Is the gross energy lifestyle of exurbia really larger than that of urban dwellers? What about commute times? If electricity doubles in price how much will those low density rooftops be worth? What about taxes, doesn't it take energy to be productive to cover higher taxes?
One of the posters at IAFF is saying that Casey was arrested this morning and will be handed over to the feds tonight.
Can anyone verify?
Sounds too good to be true.
where's Nigel when you need him?
Has anyoe else bothered to google that word "wankspittle".
I'll save you the trouble.
"The dribble of wank at the corner of a careless wiper's mouth."
What is this "wank" they speak of?
WANK:
predominantely British term for masturbation
see also-
Buffing the Banana
Holding Your Sausage Hostage
Jackin' the Beanstalk
Rounding up the Tadpoles
Slap Boxing the One-Eyed Champ
Spank the Frank
Applying the hand brake
Attacking the one-eyed purple-headed warrior
Auditioning the finger puppets
Beef-stroke-it-off
Boxing the bald champ
Charming the snake
Checking for testicular cancer
Choking Kojak
Squeezing the cream from the flesh Twinkie
Straddle your paddle
Taking matters into your own hands
Teasing the weasel
Thumping the pump
Tickling the pickle
No need to thank me, please direct all accolades to Arthur.
Sounds too good but since everyone is going to want to talk about it... New Post.
For Wankspittle and any other damn foreigners around here, it's reckoned that the US average is 12k miles per year. That's around 19,000km or 9,600 furlongs.
Guide here is that we do about 10,000 miles a year on average. Although we are supposedly metric we still measure travel distance in miles and fuel economy in mpg. That's for any foreigners who may be interested. ;)
@Arthur
96000 furlongs.
12k? Those are not true exurbs. Compare that to my ~30k a year just in commuting....
No need to guess:
http://www.bts.gov/publications/pocket_guide_to_transportation/2007/pdf/entire.pdf
783kb pdf file.
Subsections for quick reference:
http://www.bts.gov/publications/pocket_guide_to_transportation/2007/
Have fun. Be surprised.
@ wagga
I can't think of anything that is still measured in furlongs except horse race distances.
@ nigella
I felt like correcting that wiki entry. The name was invented for my "grumpy old man" persona and was derived from the idea of no sex life combined with an inadequate ability to produce the goods in old age. Needless to say Arthur is considerably older than I am, and I am much fitter.
The word, as a derivative of its usual meaning, also means "rubbish", "poor quality" or, to put it bluntly, "crap".
Anyway what's a British cookery legend doing on here?
Another aspect of the exurbs that may make them more attractive
is that the commercial centers went in first.
Ergo, each exurb community has at it's core a grocery store, a bank and a gas station, (minimum).
And the zoning, (at least the exurbs I'm familiar with), designed 'em that way from the git-go, rather than having them "evolve".
This is very energy-efficient, since the majority of one's staple purchases and business can be conducted locally, at the town center.
@Arthur:
Note the number of zeros.
Peak-hour traffic in some areas is measured in furlongs per fortnight.
@Sharky:
I live about 10 miles from the city center. I have a choice of 2 supermarkets plus all the other mod cons (even a Jamba Juice - never been in though)
I get 98% plus of my shopping done on foot or by bike.
Of course work is home-based.
By not spending hundreds of dollars a month on vehicles, I end up with a quiet working environment, on a quiet street, which is critical to my work.
I think Sharky makes an important point. If there is some local commerce, shops and the like, the chances are the area will have some local sufficiency element lacking in a purely residential development. That's not to say that a few shops will solve any problems, just that such areas are more likely to survive better.
I had a buddy who worked at DisneyWorld when it first opened.
One of the things he related was that Disney,(as in Walter), tried to learn from the mistakes he had made at DisneyLand in Anaheim.
That's why Disney bought enough property around the "World" so that they were able to control,(and profit nicely from), the hotels where the folks at the park STAY.
If you've been to both parks, you see where we get "better" at development.
It's what the people want...if enough people want it, it's a "-towne."
If it's not, it's a "Parachute, CO".
'...US were paid for all the stolen intellectual property...'
You know, that is an interesting point. The United States used to ignore intellectual property laws itself, recognizing no copyright or patent not granted by the United States.
Yes, we stole from Charles Dickens and Sir Henry Bessemer, for example.
And on an even more interesting note, much of America's software 'patents' are not even recognized in the rest of the world. Whether it is because of the absurdity of paying someone for 'creating' the idea of one click ordering or for an algorithm (RSA) - that's right, the entire world has been robbing Amazon blind, and as for RSA, well, at least patents expire, unlike current American copyrights. As for Microsoft - well, let's just say predatory practices to preserve a monopoly, and Bill Gates bewilderment that anyone would create software for any reason but monetary profit, means apparently that I am stealing from Microsoft by not paying them while using Linux - as the PC I bought didn't have Windows installed, meaning that it must have a pirated copy.
Sorry, the idea that the entire world is stealing from America is exactly the sort of self-satisfied justification which allowed the exurbs to come into existence. And in the hard cold world which Americans from the Great Depression understood (the rich don't care about the poor, unless there is more profit to be wrung from them), the idea that the world's largest debtor nation has some claim on those loaning them money to keep the exurbs driving to the mall is amusing.
Oh, by the way - I work in the software industry too, so the point of theft is not lost. On the other hand, much of our successful products (ERP package for mid-sized companies) are now based on GPL software - Apache/Tomcat/MySQL etc., whose licenses we follow - that's right, we distribute source code, something unimaginable 15 years ago. Though of course, it was quite imaginable 30 years - around the time Bill Gates was getting started.
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