Wednesday, June 27, 2007

Artist's Conception

Anonymous from a previous thread indicates that the Towncenter scheduled for groundbreaking in No '07 is already leased. Believe that and I know of some $700k townhomes in a floodplain you can buy.

I love these artist's conceptions. No traffic, no streetlights or congestion. look Behind where the dense wall of apartments is already rising and in this sketch it is all green fields. Nice.


The Dude said...

Yep, that's another FIRST! said...


Anonymous said...

I as well am always entertained by the artist conceptions... chances are better than not that they have zero leased... but at least the artist was smart enough to include a Jamba Juice in the concept. Was that Casey's mop in the front?


Mouse And Pencil said...

Yeah, they're building something similar to this at the Pleasant Hill Bart station, they're putting in retail and condos and 'lofts", at an intersection that's already a clot in the commute, in an area that's rapidly being overbuilt on streets designed for 1/4 of the traffic they already have.

Fun, fun, fun.

Granted, I live with people who drive two blocks to the 7-11.

Rob Dawg said...

I about burst a blood vessel when I saw the "Jamba" sign. That's why I posted a larger picture.

They actually do have a few tenants listed but they only total a few percent of the sq footage supposedly scheduled for groundbreaking in Nov.

YouSoSpecial said...

Last year, this award winning project called The Parks at Southport was proposed about a half mile from Yulia's house. The developer was asking to rezone a bunch of vacant industrial land; once it became apparaent that the housing market was crashing and the neighbors weren't excited by the drawings, they withdrew the rezone application and are back to marketing the industrial property.

The plan really did win an award. It was MURST place in design.

YouSoSpecial said...

These projects illlustrate a couple theories of mine:
1. Lindy's Law of Project Naming: a development project will be named after that which had to be destroyed in order for it to come about. Hence everything is named "park" and "river" and "woods" and "hills." I used to have a cartoon of two developers watching the earth moving equipment at work and one of the saying, "We're calling it Vanishing Hills."

2. Industrial land acts as a relief valve in housing booms. Most cities overzone for industrial use, and maintain a surplus of vacant industrial land. That land gets rezoned for residential at the peak of the housing cycle, then doesn't develop as demand declines, and reverts to the industrial use designation until the next up cycle. That reserve acts as a brake on land prices and housing speculation. Havingthe hurdle of rezoning in front of developers keeps them from choking on their own oversupply.

Rob Dawg said...


I had never heard the prinicple being attributed before. 20 years ago the joke was similar; whatever was destroyed or never there in the first place. Thus "Strawberry Fields" and "Eagle's Ridge." There are awesome development name generators out there.

The overdesignation of industrial land is true. It would work a whole lot better if rezoning weren't so easy however.

Hal F. Wit said...

I am de-lurking finally. I follow the housing market bubble and was drawn here as an alternative to IAFF.

Some very interesting insight. Right now I am looking at shorting lenders again (CFC, AHM, DSL) for ALT-a mortgages. I know this is off topic but everything seems to jump around so much here that I figured I'd just thow it out there.

-Hal F. Wit

Anonymous said...

The Collection is around 75% leased, The West Collection (across the street north of Ventura Blvd.) is around 98% leased, and the North Collection (over by the office tower) is fully leased.

The A&E team just started CD's recently, and Shea (like any other developer) will not release true leasing information until after permit submittal.

Anonymous said...


Here's a link to the radio station who will be interviewing KC tomorrow.

That is all.

Anonymous said...

I live in SoCal and I bought my home many years ago.

I do agree that many new people buying in SoCal face a stiff upper battle with housing.

Me, I bought many years ago and I enjoy pennies on the dollar for state tax on my house (thanks prop 13 :-) AND I bought at the low end.

Anyone buying my home today would have to me making 2-3x what I make - at least 200,000k to afford my house.

So I get to enjoy the wonderful weather, the cheap housing AND tax rate. What more can I ask for?

If you are new in SoCal, you better bend over. Otherwise, us long time residents enjoy SoCal to it's fullest.

I am very happy :-)

Rob Dawg said...

S'oaky. Sometime I forget to put up timely and topical subjects so just jump in. Anyway, I too think we are approaching a point where shorting is a reasonable strategy. Remember it is still supposed to only be a risky part of a greater investment strategy. You don't short what you cannot afford to lose. IMO futures, options and shorts are all the same thing and that thing is risky. That out of the way along with the standard disclaimer, not investment advice, yadda, yadda yes these companies are probably in for a haircut. For the last year or so they've been "manipulated" by complacent press and large institutional positions who needed to cover their bets. IMO that's just about played out and market forces are soon to reassert. The thing that needs happen however is for the M&A spigot to sieze up. I'd hate to see CFC shorts get buried in a surprise tekeunder or some such nonsense funded by debt. The signal may be if DC has difficulty raising the cash for the Chrysler deal.

opal said...

@ yousospecial:

So that's how the ridiculously absurd and ironic names for developments are generated, I was wondering about that on the riverpark thread.

Do you know which law of drug naming governs the equally stupid names big pharma dreams up?

They must be related.

Anonymous said...

What specific stocks are you shorting?

Bemused Guy said...

My weekend was fantastic (thank you passive income) and I'm glad to be home before the weather turns too MOIST!

I glanced over a few threads. Trolls, anons, posturing, a few topics above my head and some unbelievable fliptard moments....seems I didn't miss anything after all. Glad to see Marty is still employing the high school kids on vacation, keeping them off the street.

On topic, I've seen a few of these mixed use developments go from high end hopes to cut rate stores in less than a year. Kind of sad to see that happen in areas that could really use an injection of capital & physical security.

Rob Dawg said...

The A&E team just started CD's recently, and Shea (like any other developer) will not release true leasing information until after permit submittal.

Ahhh yes. "On the pinks." That explains it. Even so Shea had better get busy at the planning counter with the CUP mods as they appear to know nothing about this at all past the clothing store and TJs.

ratlab said...

You know what I love about artist renditions? All the trees surrounding a tract home. If you can ignore the fact that the developer levels the land and takes out all the existing trees, it would only take 10-20 years to get your trees to the artist rendition size.

ratlab said...

I shorted CFC a little over a month ago, I lost a little. Had to make the money back playing EMC long. I've decided that no matter what news comes out for the mort lender, the stocks for these companies move with no relevance to the news.

Hal F. Wit said...

@Anon 8:55

CFC, AHM, DSL Mostly a ALT-A meltdown. The Bear Stearns CDO bail-out has me thinking that it may be time to look at a large international bank as a potential short.

My rationale is here

Sharky said...


"1. Lindy's Law of Project Naming: a development project will be named after that which had to be destroyed in order for it to come about."

Not always...not always.

In Baltimore, you will search in vain for a "Pigtown(e)".

Anonymous said...

New post out at IAFF...


Live on Australia National Radio
Tomorrow I will be on national radio in Australia: ABC Triple J - Top Shelf with Robbie Buck. The interview is live at 3PM. I will be sharing my foreclosure story and what I’m doing to pay back debt and make a comeback.

I’m blogging right now from an internet cafe in Sydney ($2/hr), ‘cuz I couldn’t find a free WIFI quickly enough. Tonight I’m staying in a hostel. It’s $50/night for my own room so that my stuff is secure.

I need a place in Sydney for a few nights. There is another big interview opportunity that may or may not happen. So I want to hang out here just in case. If I can’t find a place I’m comfortable with I may continue doing the hostel thing or maybe

By the way, thanks to my host in Newcastle for putting me up!


So, any one has a link to this interview mp3? Also, what happened with the interview at GoDaddy?

Rob Dawg said...

GoDaddy thought better of this and cancelled.
If the triplej 'cast goes on as planned Casey had better be ready for an ambush. The ABC network has been deluged with warnings and exhortations to research Casey's story and not let him steer the subjects. He's not going to get to talk about his bright future but will be confronted with his dark past. Instead of getting a free plug for his book he's going to get questions like "how many hours notice did you give your wife before leaving for Australia?" "No, Mr. Serin, we'll get to that after you answer the questions. How many hours?" "How much debt has Hammar Corp taken on since you purchsed it?" "No, how much?" "Yes, we understand you can't keep track of everything but tell us what you do know." It will be interesting to see whether Casey or triplej cancels first.

Galina Serin Inoccent? said...

I sure hope that triplej does not let Casey off the hook easily and asks some real down to earth hard questions.

On a side note, how is Galina, still supportive of her husband? By that, I mean, no divorce yet?

lawnmower man said...

I wish that were true, Dawg, but I suspect otherwise. Triple J is a music station; I doubt they'll be doing any deep research. Casey is a short comic-relief spot for them, nothing more.

The Real Wagga™ said...

First question from jjj should be 'are you aware of websites named "CaseyPedia"?, "ExurbanNation"?'

If jjj is a radio thingy, then surely they could play some mp3s?

My vote goes to Nacho & M.Singh.

TK said...

Not sure what kind of show this is, but Casey made a huge publicity blunder doing the Jon Ronsopn interview. Hilaruious!

Anyway I've emailed and posted on their "moderated" guestbook which is probably the way to go. Obviously they've taken the easy way out ignoring the emails. Why would Casey bait the haterz and give us another shot at ruining something? Sounds like a dare. I've forwarded the links to Caseypedia's media guide with a special emphasis on unanswered questions and warnings about Casey's evasion tactics. "Are you a realtor"?

C'mon haterz. Let's get those Serin hands shaking.

Rob Dawg said...

Casey doesn't own the blue balls to go on after what I wrote to The ABC, jjj, IAFF and posted here. This would be an ambush if he actually tried to go on air.

YouSoSpecial said...

@opal, 8:53 am:

Check out the Drug-O-Matic at Wordlab's naming tools.

I'm high on life - soon to be marketed as Akozin!

(Ex) Train Wreck Watcher said...

Re: Subdivision Naming. I live in a neighborhood that actually still has pastures, meadows, streams, a nearby river, not to mention deer, foxes, falcons, etc. It's named . . . after the local town, which is pretty much what it's always been named :) . Actually, there's a large subdivision nearby, named after a farm . . . which actually is still there, only now an exclusive equestrian farm, and a bit smaller for having had the subdivision carved out of it.

Re: Short Sales on Investment Banks. So Bear Stearns sinks $3.2B into one troubled hedge fund, which amounts to 25% of their stockholder equity. The problem is that that hedge fund is heavily leveraged on rapidly-depreciating assets, which means that there's a very good chance that Bear will see little to none of that money back. I might not have a degree in Finance--wait, yes I do--but if you sink 25% of the equity into a failing venture, shouldn't there be a corresponding adjustment of some sort to the company's value?

And, of course, there's still that second (larger) troubled hedge fund waiting to be bailed out . . . and we haven't heard so much as a peep from the other big investment banks who have funds of their own running the exact same strategy.

eebee said...

9:56 AM, Anonymous: The interview hasn't happened yet-- it's scheduled for Friday, June 29. I'm not sure how far off Perth, AU time is from Sydney, but it's Thursday early morning for Perth right now. <--I'm learning the intricacies of Perth time right now-- my DH is over there on business. You'll probably see links for the interview late tomorrow evening.

M&P: More development around Pleasant Hill BART? Yikes! I've been to the nightmare movie theatre + bookstore + restaurat + mess development on Monument, and it's a nightmare! The parking garage is so hazardous that I'm afraid to walk there, let alone park...

Anonymous said...

triple J interview will be in just under 8 hours from now.

Galina Serin Inoccent? said...

You guys dont get it.

Casey welcomes all types of attention. He does not care and does things to bring attention to himself.

In the end, it will bite his ass, but he has nothing to lose at this point in time.

Any updates on Galina Serin. Not divorcing her fradulant husband yet? Why was she willing to go along with the Fraud if Casey was able make $1,000.00 (or more) a week?