Thursday, June 28, 2007

KB Surprise

Yahoo Finance reports an AP story on KB homes.

KB Home Reports Loss As Housing Revenue Plunges 41 Percent

LOS ANGELES (AP) -- Homebuilder KB Home reported Thursday it swung to a loss in its second quarter, as revenue declined amid weak home sales and lower prices and the homebuilder booked a major charge to write down unsold inventory.
...
KB reported a loss of $148.7 million, or $1.93 per share, for the period ended May 31. A year ago, the company posted net income of $205.4 million, or $2.45 per share.

The latest period included a pretax charge of $308.2 million to reflect the decreased value of unsold homes on its books and for walking away from deposits on land it no longer wants to buy.

Revenue fell 36 percent to $1.41 billion from $2.2 billion in the year-ago period.

Wall Street analysts, on average, were expecting the homebuilder to post a profit of 7 cents per share and revenue of $1.74 billion, according to a survey by Thomson Financial.


41 percent. Say it slowly; For-ty o-n-e per-cent. Yesterday people were expecting their stock to have a 7 cent profit and thought it was worth 40. After the bell they get bitchslapped and left with with the bill (sound familiar?).

Hat tip to ha3 who put up a comment as I was preparing the topic.

112 comments:

king friday the 13th said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
king friday the 13th said...

first lennar and now kb

ha38349 said...

Hat tip to ha3 who put up a comment as I was preparing the topic.
And First Murst!

Rob Dawg said...

And every person who bought from them over the last several years now needs to reconsider how much their home is worth in light of the massive inventory revaluation the HBs are making to their newer versions of the same product.

This is the huge "wealth" evaporation I was talking about in 2005. No need for foreclosures or any of that, just taking back the paper gains and then some from the last several years of insane pricing.

Anonymous said...

Sorry for re-posting this: I just posted it in the last thread and moments later a fresh topic was started, so I hope you don't mind if I stick it here.

Repost:
Permit me a Casey-related interjection here... I came across the following in unrelated reading today and instantly knew it had to be posted here. It's a bit long but highly recommended. Might shed some light on things a bit. Sorry, no link, its quoted from a "dead tree"-style book with real old-fashioned paper pages, referenced below the passage.


*************


"..[He goes] through terribly crippled, like a man who is deaf, or blind, or paralyzed. [For he] has no conscience.

"Conscience doth makes cowards of us all," but conscience is what gives us our humanity, the factor that separates us from the animals. It allows us to love, to feel another's pain, and to grow. Whatever the drawbacks are to being blessed with a conscience, the rewards are essential to living in a world with other human beings.

The individual with no conscience -- with no superego at all -- has long been a focal point for study by psychologists and psychiatrists. The terms used to describe the individual have changed over the years, but the concept has not. Once it was called a "psychopathic personality," and then it became "sociopath." Today, the term in vogue is "antisocial personality."

To live in our world, with thoughts and actions always counter to the flow of your fellowmen, must be an awesome handicap. There are no innate guidelines to follow; the psychopath might well be a visitor from another planet, struggling to mimic the feelings of those he encounters. It is almost impossible to pinpoint when antisocial feelings begin, although most experts agree that the emotional development has been arrested in early childhood -- perhaps as early as three. Usually, the inward turning of emotions results from a need for love or acceptance not filled, from depravation and humiliation. Once the process has begun, that little child will grow tall -- but he will never mature emotionally.

He may experience pleasure only on a physical level, as an excitable "high," and a sense of euphoria from the games he substitutes for real feelings.

He knows what he wants, and because he is not hampered by the guilt feelings or needs of others, he can usually achieve instant gratification. But he can never fill up the lonesome void inside. He is insatiable, always hungry.

The antisocial personality *is* mentally ill, but not in the classic sense or within our legal framework. He is invariably highly intelligent and has long since learned the proper responses, the tricks and techniques that will please those from whom he wants something. He is subtle, calculating, clever, and dangerous. And he is lost."

-Anne Rule, The Stranger Beside Me, p. 427-8

The pimples on Mocha's fat cellulite-covered thighs said...

I can't wait until my little vanilla snowflake comes to live with me. I will give him some of my Chocolate Thunder from Down Under.

xxoo
Mocha

ha38349 said...

To cope with the housing slump, the company is rolling out new homes that are cheaper to build and can be sold for a price that is more in line with what buyers can afford.
Hmmm, wonder what that will do to existing home prices ?

Sharky said...

Rob Dawg:

"Wall Street analysts, on average, were expecting the homebuilder to post a profit of 7 cents per share and revenue of $1.74 billion, according to a survey by Thomson Financial."

They must be sniffin' a lot of airplane glue on Wall Street, then.

Or maybe they think that their investors are.

When did this bubble start bursting?

Last Autumn, right? After the big "Move During the School Summer" selling season, yes?

Once again...it seems time for some "High Rise Building-Manhattan Sidewalk Wall Street Analyst Impact Tests"

Sac RE Agent said...

no big surprises. well, let me correct that and say no big suprise to me. expect very similar results for other companies too.

seeing as how i lost roughly 20% in appreciated value last year on my primary residence, atleast i feel good about people sharing the loss.

BJ said...

ha38349

To cope with the housing slump, the company is rolling out new homes that are cheaper to build and can be sold for a price that is more in line with what buyers can afford.

Hmmm, wonder what that will do to existing home prices ?


KB is hoping nothing. What KB doesn't get is that this will affect price per square foot. The 'cheaper' model will also not sell.

Who wants to be tied to a $3500+/yr mortgage on a crackerbox? If you make the type of money to afford something along that line, you expect more quality.

Joe Dirt said...

Anyone care to guess what would happen to housing and our economy if we kick out all of the estimated 12 million illegals here?

I am not pro immigration and I am not anti immegration. I just know that people who work make money, and spend that money somewhere where someone else works. Sure they suck our money and send it home, but they are still spending it.

Tom said...

So if a 41% drop is the "soft landing", what would the hard landing look like?

BJ said...

They were sniffing stuff a lot stronger than airplane glue..

Don't forget the Bear Stearn's Hedge fund failures, as well as the collapse of several sub-prime mortgage companies.

BJ said...

@Joe Dirt

The problem is that it is not raw numbers. You have a nearly constant number of jobs, whose quantity increases at a single digit rate. With the influx of aliens, you now have an oversupply of labor. Supply and demand then forces the price paid for the labor to go down. (if there are two people for every job, the person hiring can drop the offered salary till only one applies for the job).

Why else are CEO salaries enjoying a nearly 20% increase YOY, while the middle and lower socio-economic classes seeing only about 3%?

Sharky said...

Archiving
Hey Kid:

"You can try to throw sticks into my wheels (is that how they say it) but I will keep ridin’."

I don't want to throw sticks in your wheels, hobbit.

Although if you climbed back up that tree, I might bring a golf bag full of pool cues and do my "Masai Warrior" imitation...see how many direct hits it would take to knock Koala-boi down out of the branches.

Just for fun...y'know? Post it on YouTube.

('Cuz I'm like that.)

"And who says anything about a war?"

Well, youngster...YOU did.

I'm not at war with you, little buckaroo.
If I REALLY wanted to bring you down, I wouldn't bother with the fun stuff...I'd just set your tree on fire.

"My comeback story would not be possible without you."

Oh...so you're returning to the USA soon, huh?

When can we expect you?

asw: organic

Sharky said...

Sac RE Agent:

"...seeing as how i lost roughly 20% in appreciated value last year on my primary residence, atleast i feel good about people sharing the loss."

I'm sure they're all just as thrilled to be in your company as you are to be in theirs.

How soon can you get your digs reassessed?

Turn your paper losses into some real tax savings?

Rob Dawg said...

Sharky,
That sounds like almost as much fun as whack-a-tard. Glad to see you are taking the hint and making every post to IAFF as if it could be the last one ever posted.

Tavington said...

I think it's fairly obvious that the government should do something about the mortgage crisis. Thousands of people in real estate could lose their jobs, and many Americans will also lose their homes as well.

I think that Chris Dodd's proposal to help homeowners with a bailout is a reasonable one.

Rob Dawg said...

Sac RE Agent;
seeing as how I lost roughly 20% in appreciated value last year on my primary residence, atleast i feel good about people sharing the loss.

I think y-o-y I'm only theoretically down about 15%. The next 12 months are a mystery. By that will pricing hold then plunge or retreat orderly and consistently or plunge then retreat orderly?

Rob Dawg said...

Tav,
All the excitables have gone. No one left except the hardcore bubbleheads. Dodd's trial "anti-balloon" was a nonstarter even in braindead Congress.

Anonymous said...

IAFF will be more entertaing when Galina owns it. She should keep blogging and tell the real Casey story. Then she could cover the trial and so on....

Lou Minatti said...

Tav,

We all recognize your attempts at trolling but no one here is buying it. Have you tried the Bubble Blog? Post under Bits Buckets and use a different alias. Try using a name like "Sacramento Investor" or "REPro" or "nomorechickenlittles". You'll get the heat you are craving.

king friday the 13th said...

From the KB website, KB builds in: Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas and Wisconsin.

Wow. AZ, CA, NV, FL. The four horsemen of the housing apocolypse. I think that explains the 41% decline in revenue.

Sharky said...

Rob:

It is.

Y'know, the last goober I had the pleasure of "posseing" after was an Ivy-League PhD.
Thatwas almost a year ago.

She now lives in a shack in Oregon and is even MORE unemployable and odious than Kangatard.

Last seen, she was dry-humping a public light post in broad daylight:

Here's the pix:

http://i201.photobucket.com/albums/aa53/Sudsy_Saves/Page_4.jpg

The Oregon Commentator has the full set.

Casey Serin said...

Glad I got out from under this dog.
SWEET!

6842 Burdett Way
Sacramento, CA 95823

Asking Price: $225,900
Bedrooms:3 Baths: 2 Sq. feet:1408

Listing History:
Down 5.5% from $239,000 On 2007-02-09
Down 4.6% from $236,900 On 2007-03-31
Down 2.2% from $230,900 On 2007-05-06

Days on market: 134
# of Times Listed: 3

Previous Sales:
Sold on 2007-03-22 for $249,427
Likely REO

Anonymous said...

Deb Frisch huh? Sharky, love your posts... care to give a quick capsule of this Dr. Frisch and escapades?

Anonymous said...

Rob,

Millions of Irish, Italian, Chinese, and other immigrant groups have come to this country (particularly, during a time when there was no such thing as "illegal immigration") in poverty. They did so despite vehement protests from Americans that they would surely cause the implosion of America. Now, several generations later, not only have those immigrants not created a welfare state, but have made invaluable contributions to the United States.

My question - what is it about Mexican immigrants that is unique from those other groups? Why do you epect any different results?

Anonymous said...

I think the correct term they use on Wal Street is "Pwned"

The Dude said...

Tav,
You know you've hit rock bottom when you're pitied by those you seek to troll.....to the point of offering up advice on how and where to take your act. Usually those who fail miserably in real life find some sense of self worth in net trolling....but you're a looser at both. A rare feat indeed.

The Dude said...

Shark,
That looks like Pioneer Square. If so, she wouldn't even come close to being weird there. Real "pros" hang out in the Square.

Sac RE Agent said...

Sharky, I sold the house earlier this year and walked with a good chunk of equity. So no reassessment for tax purposes needed. I would have sold last year, but family issues delayed the sale.

Dawg, I can't speak for your re market, but sactown still has dramatic downward price movement over the next year. Or a lot of properties to be returned to the banks and put on the market as reo. Either scenario is not a pleasant one for sellers.

Sharky said...

BTW: here's the linkie for the entire thing:

http://www.oregoncommentator.com/2007/06/08/like-deb-frisch-youll-love-this/#more-1398

And, y'know, work like this kinda restores one's faith in edumacation.

Deb Frisch.

PhD from University of Pennsylvania, in "Decision Science", (God does love his little jokes! you'll see why)

Worked at the NSF in DC, handing out subsidies to other impoverished academics.

She dabbled in stand-up comedy, (heract soon became known arounftown as the "impromptu fire evacuation drill" by comedy club owners).

She was a long time internet troll and kook of the hyper-partisan kind, (like Tavington, but without the wit, and Kangatard without the pleasant personality).

Last year on Protein Wisdom they were havingthe usual "sturm und drang", when she maderemarks sexualizing the blogowner's 6 year old child and intimating violence against that child.

Frisch's comment created an uproar in the decent side of the blog-o-sphere (Left and Right), got a minor mention by Brit Hume on Fox News, and we were off!

Oddly enough, she maintained that this was all a good career move...said she'd be the leftwing Ann Coulter,in spite of losing her job at the University of Arizona, her relationship, and any chance of employment thatdoes not involve a paper hat and/or a hairnet (does this sound strangely familiar?).
Presently, in addition to the activities above, she's the target of at least 2 lawsuits and one bench-warrant.

Her lasting legacy, as of this writing?

Google "Frisched" on Wikipedia.

TK said...

Tavington reminds me of a troll on the Yahoo Message boards for Pulte Homes (PHM) named KimHoang909. His posts were so consistently rosy and contained such terrible english they were hard to resist

Sharky said...

Scratch that...

It seems her Wiki legacy has been scrubbed.

As has her "lots of tongue" kissing post.

Poor Frisch...even her notoriety was fleeting.

I guess that 'splains why she took up public lamp=post humping for the "enlightenment" of undergrads.

Johnny B Good said...

And every person who bought from them over the last several years...revaluation the HBs are making to their newer versions of the same product.

But this was foreseen by many:

1. Builders keep up the price by controlling inventory.

2. Builders keep up prices by offering inscentives.

3. Builders keep up prices by offering bigger & bigger incentives.

4. Builders mitigate price drops by bigger incentives.

5. Builders slash prices to move inventory.

It took 18 months to move from step 1 through step 4. We are just starting on step 5. This is where new construction and existing homes intersect. Now, new construction begins impacting heavily on the resale market.

Down we go. All has played out as predicted. It's just taken longer than anticipated.

Rob Dawg said...

It's that longer than anticipated part that I still don't get. This was all supposed to unravel last October. It bothers me to be so very wrong on the timescale. Don't get me wrong, it isn't the being wrong, that' happens to everyone. No, I'm upset because I'm not learning anything this time from being wrong. So far the only answers are just too tinfoil to accept. Nigel says jobs but Big Picture and Calculated Risk have long put that canard to rest. I'm still looking for a nonparanoid answer.

Anonymous said...

It's that longer than anticipated part that I still don't get. This was all supposed to unravel last October. It bothers me to be so very wrong on the timescale.


"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." - John Maynard Keynes

It was in 1996 that Greenspasm came out with his "irrational exuberance" quote, I believe. Yet markets bouyed by tech continued to boom all speed ahead for another 4 years or so before the dotcom flamout.

Johnny B Good said...

I'm upset because I'm not learning anything this time from being wrong

But you will! The powers that be are trying so hard to:

- Keep the bubble from really popping
- Minimize the damage
- Keep the economy afloat inspite of the damage

that the MUST keep their actions secret. All will become clear, but not until the crisis is well under way.

(P.S., I'll lend you my tinfoil hat if you need one!)

Bemused Guy said...

Wow - that's a huge drop for KB. They're big in my old home town, I feel sorry for all their employees.

JohnDiddler said...

i've come to like sharky's style as a talkshoe host.

Falling Floorward said...

Tavinton simply accepts the minority view and trolls it for fun.

How boring.

Whoever posted that crap of Tav defending 'jar jar' from star wars as being an awsome character - that was HILARIOUS!!!

1000 a weak said...

@Rob:

This was all supposed to unravel last October.

Off-cycle. Builders don't expect to sell any homes in Q4, so the low volume wasn't a shock to the system.

Now, after the crappy Q1 and Q2 (remember in October everyone was talking about how things would pick up at the start of the new year?), you'll see it. Earnings releases in the next few weeks will almost universally include the magic four words: "We foresee continuing challenges"

The question is: is there money to be made here. Is Toll worth another round of shorts, or are crappy earnings already priced in?

Anonymous said...

Cruel Tax Rears Its Head Following Foreclosure

By Kevin McCormally
Provided by Kiplinger.com

At first blush, the double whammy seems so cruelly unfair that it must be untrue.

First, you lose your house in a foreclosure -- perhaps you fell behind in the payments after you lost your job, you got sick or your husband or wife died. Then the law orders the IRS to pile on the grief by charging you income tax on part of your loss.

Outlandish, perhaps. But, as tens of thousands of homeowners will soon learn, it's also true.

If the bank sells your home for less than the amount left on your mortgage, any forgiven debt can be treated as taxable income. The IRS even has a special form for reporting this windfall: the 1099-C. The C stands for cancellation of debt and the law says cancelled debt is taxable just the same way salary is. (There are exceptions, which we'll get into later.)

. . . .

Other efforts by strapped homeowners -- such as "short sales" or loan restructuring -- can also trigger 1099-Cs reporting taxable income.

. . . .

There's a very important exception to the...rule. Although lenders must send 1099-C forms reporting taxable income whenever cancelled debt is $600 or more, the tax bill itself is forgiven if the homeowner is bankrupt or insolvent.

Akatsukami said...

@ Anon 8:10

"Millions of Irish, Italian, Chinese, and other immigrant groups have come to this country (particularly, during a time when there was no such thing as "illegal immigration") in poverty. They did so despite vehement protests from Americans that they would surely cause the implosion of America. Now, several generations later, not only have those immigrants not created a welfare state, but have made invaluable contributions to the United States."

Then your vision of the future of immigration is to restrict access to education, health care, and government subsidies and programs by current immigrants to what those earlier waves had, yes?

Anonymous said...

Mocha speaketh to LossMitPro. I am a Casey hater but I think Mark is creepy. I love it when Mocha hates on him(LOL)
..................................

Anyway…You know what? I spent $23.95 on this damn book “The Secret” and $34.95 on the DVD. I am trying to think “good thoughts” but that imbecile LMP is gonna make me “back slide” here for a sec.

Mark Villasenor(LossMitPro),

You need to go back to that website that lied to you and told you that they were giving out law degrees for $19.99 plus shipping and handling, and tell them that you want your money back…hehehehehehehehehehe

What are you doing on IAFF anyway? You threatened Litigation if all reference to your dumbass was not removed.

Loss Mitigation Professional my a**!!! To me..you are just LMP:

“Litigator Mark Poltroon”…heheheheheheheh

That’s “p o l t r o o n” :

Part of Speech: noun
Definition: coward
Synonyms: craven, dastard, chicken, quitter, recreant, yellowbelly

Hummmmm…wait a sec…I know…You strayed away from the other goats in the herd and now you are lost. So you decided to graze on the greener pastures that is IAFF?

GET YOUR “STANK” A** BACK BEHIND THE FENCE!!!
................................

Poetic. Casey has his own personal gansta bitch.(LOL)

Anonymous said...

New, long, meaningless post on IAFF. Some more family bashing (they are holding me back) crap in the first part. Then an update:

Australia travel update:

Thanks to one of my long time silent supporters for taking me out for some sushi last night. He is a full-time property investor with properties mostly in western Tazmania. We had a great time talking about Australia property market, blogging, etc.

And today, thanks to Kris (who left a nice comment the other day), for taking me out to lunch. She happened to be here on a business trip. It was great to catchup with a past hosting / web dev client.

She let me use the shower in her nice hotel. The communal showers in the hostel were a little too… um communal and dirty for my taste. So I went like 2 days with a nice warm/cold shower.

I will be flying straight back to the States any day now. As soon as my other supporter is able to book the flight. I feel so blessed by all the love and support (financial and emotional) people have shown me on this trip.


He is getting ready to be part of the July 4th fireworks ??!! He must be tired of living like a bum...lets see how thats gonna go back in SacTown. I hope for the sake of fellow passengers he will take a shower before boarding that plane....

Anonymous said...

))))There's a very important exception to the...rule. Although lenders must send 1099-C forms reporting taxable income whenever cancelled debt is $600 or more, the tax bill itself is forgiven if the homeowner is bankrupt or insolvent.((((

Does this explain why Casey hasn't yet filed for 'ruptcy? The Utah house is still up in the air. If Casey filed now, he might still get a 1099-c on the Utah house. Once that is settled by foreclosure, then he might file and avoid the IRS penalty.

Michelle said...

Casey plans to leave Monday or Tuesday. He'll be back here in the US right on time for the Fourth of July.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

After the RE bubble bust, the oil business, private placement that is, went UP 30%.
So, everyone is not sitting around thinking this is the bottom, which it
is not, imo.
Some people are running away from stocks and RE.

TK said...

If I were Galina in a Christian marriage, I would not be too thrilled about my husband showering in another woman's hotel room 3500 miles away...

Out of respect for Galina I would not speculate as to what else may have happened in that room, but something tells me that Casey didn't find his Hostel room too much to his liking either - he likes a nice hotel room as we all know.

R-Boy said...

I guess hit other media thing didnt hit. Toooo bad...

Yeah, he lived like a dancing monkey and accomplished nothing.

I cant wait till next week. Fireworks galore

Anonymous said...

"Then your vision of the future of immigration is to restrict access to education, health care, and government subsidies and programs by current immigrants to what those earlier waves had, yes?"

Sure. I have no problem with that. Welfare reform is a seperate issue from immigration.

Even if not, do you really think, in the long run, the successive generations of mexican immigrants won't "pay back" any costs (which are even disputed by most available data) incurred by the first wave of immigrants?

Lou Minatti said...

He ain't coming back. There is no reason to. It's nothing but pain and misery at home.

He'll become the Gary Glitter of real estate. I predict we'll hear about him in 10 years as he's picked up in Thailand.

TK said...

He may pull another stop out of his backside between Brisbane and W Sac, but that's gonna lose its effectiveness soon enough. It does make me sick that he has the money to get himself home, but he's waiting for his supporter to pay for it. I wonder what his screening system is for finding supporters? His "Silent minority". I guarantee you he burned more than a couple of bridges while there.

Anyway as to his return home - this is from the horse's mouth:

"Not sure when and hopefully I will be welcomed back. That i’m not sure about either. My trip here is coming to an end though. So we’ll find out soon enough.

Sysiwig said...

I think what we're seeing here is a bottom peak in the market and it should recover in 6 months. In fact, I would say that as someone who is quite knowledgeable about the SoCal RE market, those people who invest in the firesales going on right now will reap huge dividends in 2+ years.

And those of you 'renters' who have been waiting for those good deals, they are here now.

One must know how to properly anticipate trends in the market to be successful at RE. Something that Casey completely fails to grasp.

Sysiwig said...

There's no question that an increase in immigration to California has also caused increases in housing prices during the boom period.

I consider myself more moderate on the immigration question. The US should restrict immigration during these 'bust' periods (that we're experiencing right now) while increasing it at even much higher levels during 'boom' times.

But setting up a border fence is not the solution, in my opinion. A much more reasonable fix would be to issue work permits to those who come here and perform seasonal work.

MexicanMike said...

I think what we are seeing right now is a downward trend that will go on for quite a while. Infact, someone who is quite knowledgeable about the NorCal RE market, those people who invest in foreclosures now will continue to lose equity for the next 4+ years.

And people should continue to rent since prices are 1/4 the price than paying mortgages at the moment.

It's a lot harder to anticipate trends in the market since easy money is not being loaned out to anyone at the moment. All anyone can do right now is watch prices drop.

MexicanMike said...

Why does Casey always feel "Blessed" when this azzhole doesn't show the slightest drop of Christian blood in his veins?

I guess leaving Galina holding the bill bag is something Jesus would do!

Khatie said...

@TK

"If I were Galina in a Christian marriage, I would not be too thrilled about my husband showering in another woman's hotel room 3500 miles away..."

That's why he included that little tidbit. That creepy, sociopathic jerk included that to hurt Galina and to manipulate her into guilt. "See, you didn't support me, so I had to leave the country and found someone that helped me..."

TK said...

Khatie:

From an old comment thread Kris was the purported old client of his that spoke in such glowing terms about the guy you had to question her very existence.

I knew from the very first time I met Casey, that he would probably be a millionaire by the time he was 30 yrs old. And I still believe that! What I saw in Casey back then, was the most brilliant computer technician I had ever met in my life. Given my background in Psychology, I figured that surely he must have an above average I.Q. Through my numerous interactions with Casey, I found him to be an honorable, intense young man, who had tremendous promise.

She just happened to be in Australia on business at the time? I don't buy it. What does Kris do for a living? Obviously it's a big deal if she's in Australia. And if she's a big shot, what the hell was she employing Casey for? In fact a huge chunk of my industry is based in Australia, but RARELY do we go because it's cost prohibitive.

Casey is making up support systems that don't exist. He's spending corporate credit, staying in hotels. There's no supporter willing to send him home (except maybe the Canadian that sent him). There's no Brisbane guy who ate the bill for everything while he's been there. The couple he stayed with (who were supposedly going to host him for THREE MONTHS) was a burnt bridge after one week. Complications that sound worse than they actually are? Bullshit again! He says leaving Galina with Cashcall and Wells Fargo calling all day while she cleans toilets sounds worse than it actually is!

This week we'll find out how much worse than it sounds it ACTUALLY is.

Cranky Aussie said...

@Khatie

Absolutely, there was no reason for him to mention it apart from that. What a manipulative little flipper.

Also, regarding his mysterious Aussie beneafactors: What do you suppose the odds are that David Schirmer, contributor to "The Secret" and genuine con-man in own right took our little Snowflake under his wing and showed him a few pointers? I wouldn't be at all surprised.

http://www.beaumiles.com/blog/index.php/2007/05/29/the-secret-s-david-schirmer-exposed-on-a-current-affair-video.html

The Dude said...

It wouldn't surprise me if he wasn't trolling his own comments and making the whole dinner/shower crap up. The only question yet to be answered is "How low can he go?"

Sysiwig said...

As much as the hatred for RE spepculators may be justified, I think it's wishful thinking that prices for houses in California will drop as much as the doom and gloomers like to predict.

I'm here to tell things as they are (and yes, Casey is an idiot), you won't be seeing RE go down to "firesale" levels that even min. wage workers will be able to afford.

Perhaps the RE will drop a couple of percentage points from now, but it can only go up from here. Many of the "renters" will find out that they're priced out again in 2 years.

The time to buy is now.

Miguel said...

It wouldn't surprise me if he wasn't trolling his own comments and making the whole dinner/shower crap up.

One normally demands photographic evidence, but I think I'll pass in this case.

TK said...

The time to buy is now

Uh, no. You a Realtor or something? Panic hasn't even set in yet. We'll buy after capitualtion than you very much.

Mouse And Pencil said...

@Sysiwig
The time to buy is now? Cool, go buy something, put your money where your mouth is.

Tell us how well you did 12 months from now.

Me, I'm not taking a 500K gamble, thanks.

TK said...

Miguel,

What you don't want to see that greasy monkey with his murse on his naked body in the cold cycle of his hot/cold shower and a case of severe shrinkage?

Just thought I'd leave you all with that image.

Brain bleach please...

Mouse And Pencil said...

Casey is truly sick. How can you get angry, once you realize how sick he is. He's still comparing his fucking blog to a child, and even if the letter he's commenting on is fake (probably written by Marty), he's equating losing a blog with losing a child.

Sick, sick, sick.

I'm leaning towards institutionalization, not jail. That boy is not wired right, he's a bad machine.

Also, I noticed the oh-so-subtle reference to "the next trip".

(Dr. Evil) 'Riiiiiiiiiiight."

Sysiwig said...

I remember the bubble run-up in gold prices. Survivalist nut cases were predicting nuclear armageddon and a complete collapse of the economy.

If you bought gold in 1981, you still have not made your money back to this day.

That type of mentality is what I see today in regards to the housing market doom watchers. They cite so-called evidence of 'white flight' from California and extreme cases where tomato pickers who make 20K buying up $600,000 properties to make their case.

I suppose in the modern age of the internet, it's easy to Google anything that you want.

I'm sorry, but I live in the real world. When I was making much lower margins last year in the SF area I backed off sensing this downturn.

But what goes down, eventually comes back up.

Is it a firesale? Depends on your point of view. From mine, it is a goldmine that is ready to be taken advantage of.

Casey Serin bought most of his properties almost 2 years ago at the top of the market. He gives RE investors a really bad name.

The fundamentals are there right now for a recovery--especially with the emerging latino consumer market who want to build a better life (sorry, nativists, but immigrants do improve the economy). Don't come crying to me in 2+ years and say that I didn't warn you once the housing market is in full swing again.

Mouse And Pencil said...

Poste at IAFF, lets see if he's a callous as I think he is

"Sorry to hear that… I recommend blogging as a good healthy way to cope and share your experience with others. I also know what it’s like to loose a child (well sort of… temporarily). -CS"

Casey, my younger brother lost his son, who was almost 2 years old, in September, from complications to surgery from a birth defect. (His heart was not fully formed).

You have no idea what it's like to lose a child. None. I don't, and I'm still going through the loss and horror and grief of losing that little boy, i have NO IDEA what my brother is going through, but I'm here for him, along with the rest of my family. Losing our father was heartbreaking in ways I can't even describe, and losing my nephew was and is even worse.

You are disgusting, to equate a blog with the loss of a child. Your response to someone saying they lost a child is disgusting.

You are no Christian. You are a monster.

Post this, you organic piece of shit. Or don't, it will be posted elsewhere.

Mouse And Pen"

it takes a village to raise a blog said...

Ha! If his blog were his child, social services would have had him arrested for child neglect.

Mouse And Pencil said...

@sysiwig

Fine. Save your Realtor™ Babble™ for somewhere else, we don't want to hear it. You think it's the time to buy? Great - go buy something.

Anonymous said...

I have many many anchors and many are reading this blog right now. I would also much rather be in near poverty then be “anchored up”


You will be in near poverty and you WILL be Anchored. Not by your soon-to-be ex-wife, but by your crippling debt, which I pray your maker will force on you until your dying day.

TK said...

Mouse and Pen, sorry to hear about your nephew. Casey has no empathy, that's why he can be so cavalier about statements like that. There aren't words.

Jerry Mander said...

@ Rob Dawg
Dawg - did CFC's debt rating get cut or not? The story disappeared from the yahoo link.

Thanks

Jerry

Khatie said...

@TK

"She just happened to be in Australia on business at the time? I don't buy it. What does Kris do for a living? Obviously it's a big deal if she's in Australia. And if she's a big shot, what the hell was she employing Casey for? In fact a huge chunk of my industry is based in Australia, but RARELY do we go because it's cost prohibitive."

I agree. Galina probably doesn't realize this, though. I fear that our little master manipulator may be on a campaign to weasel his way back into her sister's house (or worse yet, he's just doing this to hurt and humiliate her), and this post is just a test balloon from him to see if she will contact him and let him back in.

Just say no, Galina.

Rob Dawg said...

Sysiwig says,
Is it a firesale? Depends on your point of view. From mine, it is a goldmine that is ready to be taken advantage of.

The only possibilty of reaping substantial rewards right now is with substantial appereciation. I'd be comfortable with a rental purchase in the 110-120x range or 140-150x range in California. Perhaps you have a few suggestions? I know they exist but are too far apart and few to be used as anything except exceptions. Most have other deal breaking issues but I'd like to see what you come up with. How many 3br sfrs in safe rentable neighborhoods commanding $2000 rents are selling for $$240,000? Those only make sense if you have enough other income to take advantage of depreciation and flexibility to take advantage of the 2/5 cap gains exclusion and deep enough pockets to stick out the 2 part with no rental income.

Serin is as Serin does... said...

Oh, Christ... Fliptard's coming back to the States. Please tell me Galina's already changed the locks on Snapdragon and taken out a restraining order on Snowflake!

Mouse And Pencil said...

@TK

Thank you. I did'nt bring it up on purpose in the past, because we're still going through it, it's still pretty hard to talk about.

But, he's dropped that analogy too many times to let it go by without comment, he's not a human, he's a monster if he equates a scam blog with a child. I don't have the words to express how deeply fucked up that is.

If I were religious, I would say it was evil.

Sysiwig said...

House and Pencil:

I will tell you the reason why the time to buy is NOW.

The mainstream press is very slow to report on current trends. Last year, many RE speculators were seeing smaller margins, got greedy, and tried to talk up the market through their usual channels.

I saw right through the BS. I understand perfectly well that people want to buy houses at payments that they can afford (one of the reasons why adjustable rate mortgages are very helpful). So there were a few cases of a realtor selling a $600,000 to a guy making $20,000--that is probably the worst case scenario and the doomers were right to point out that this was unsustainable.

Right now, the media is reporting a housing slump, which is quite true. But they're behind the curve, they're really reporting the effects of last year. So, the same greedy speculators who talked up the market last year, are talking it down to death, hoping for a huge firesale in the future.

Sorry, but people will hold on to their houses and the inventory will stabilize. I acknowledge that it was good for the 'renters' to hold off 1 year ago. But I'm doing you a favor now by telling you that the market has bottomed out.

Don't be a sheeple: if the mainstream media tells you to do something in regards to investing, it's usually a safe bet that you should do the opposite.

The Dude said...

The fundamentals are there right now for a recovery--especially with the emerging latino consumer market who want to build a better life (sorry, nativists, but immigrants do improve the economy). Don't come crying to me in 2+ years and say that I didn't warn you once the housing market is in full swing again.

Who are you trying to convince....us, or yourself? Every serious investor goes about his business, whereas, wannabe investors troll the web searching for justification for something they don't actually have the guts to do. Insecure?....or just delusional?

Anonymous said...

Is it out of line to propose that the only reason he still makes the "child" comparison is because he knows how much it upsets the "haterz" (same with the wheatgrass shots comment) and he understands that he needs the "haterz" still talking about him to generate "buzz"? Mission accomplished.

Mouse And Pencil said...

@Sysiwig

"Sheeple"? You're calling me a sheeple? Go fuck yourself, ya slimy piece of realtor shit. I'm in no mood for bullshit from the likes of you today.

Peddle your bullshit all you want, but the prices of houses in CA, especially where I live, are artifically too high, and will come down, because A. nobody can afford them, and B. they're just not worth that much money.

Like I said, you think it's time to buy? Fine. GO FUCKING BUY SOMETHING. Stop trying to sell us a line of bullshit, and go peddle your snakeoil on real estate blogs where the other Realtor™ con artists jerk each other off.

I gotta get ready for work, i don't have any more time to waste on your nonsense.

Sheeple. Go fuck yourself with a chainsaw, asshole.

Sysiwig said...

Rob Dawg:

Although I believe the market has bottomed out, it's still a buyer's market. One could get away in buying houses 20-30K below the listing price without much protest from the seller.

But this can only last for so long -- the number of house sales is actually increasing slightly, although there is less profits (and actually, losses in the case of this downmarket). So inventory will stabilize and house prices will adjust to what the market will bear.

I think there are other factors that will significantly improve the housing market (in SoCal):

1. The depreciation of the US dollar helps the export market and more capital will be staying here domestically.

2. Arnold Schwarzenegger's stem cell research initiative will spur private investment in biotechnology and take R&D share away from more reactionary conservative states.

3. Huge oil discoveries in the North Sea will bring prices down below 2004 levels, giving consumers more disposable income, hence more money to spend on non-energy items (the US is a huge net importer of energy).

Entertained said...

July 4th, such a nice day to declare independence, no? I imagine Casey is not looking forward to next week.

The Dude said...

(the US is a huge net importer of energy).

Next he'll post:
Koi, that's a type of fish

Sysiwig said...

Go fuck yourself, ya slimy piece of realtor shit. I'm in no mood for bullshit from the likes of you today.

Resorting to ad-hominem is no way to have a reasonable discourse. Please watch your language.

Peddle your bullshit all you want, but the prices of houses in CA, especially where I live, are artifically too high, and will come down, because A. nobody can afford them, and B. they're just not worth that much money.

I don't know if you've been living under a cave or whatnot, but listing prices are significantly lower than they were 1-2 years ago. Even if listing prices are the same on paper, the real selling price during negotiation is actually a lot less.

Sellers are in a panic mode right now and want to dump the house they can't afford. But as with most situations--nothing lasts forever. I RE investor of mine (from Canada) saw a market go from a buyer's to a seller's one within 6 months.

Rob Dawg said...

Jerry Mander said...
@ Rob Dawg
Dawg - did CFC's debt rating get cut or not? The story disappeared from the yahoo link.

CFC has gone massively "news quiet." I can't even get local normally talkative off the record types to give me anything. Think back, have you ever seen Mozillo go this long without media exposure? His take this month is $20,000,000 in stock sales.

Rob Dawg said...

Everybody calm down.

Sysiwig, "sheeple" is a very nasty word around here. to avoid troll accusations its best not to look like you are picking a fight. You go on to say; Although I believe the market has bottomed out, it's still a buyer's market. Most industry leaders themselves have written off the remainer of 2007 and many are saying at best 2008 won't suck as bad. Gawd I love it when they talk all technical. Buying at the start of a bottom only makes sense if you can afford the carrying costs.

2. Arnold Schwarzenegger's stem cell research initiative will spur private investment in biotechnology and take R&D share away from more reactionary conservative states.

There are neighborhoods in Thousand Oaks that have lost more in value than the entirey of the stem-cell effort has spent over the same period. You know Thousand Oaks, home to Amgen who has a no new investment in California corporate policy. My HS kid is currently burning tuition at UCLA on a stem-cell class. Pehaps Ahnold can help us out?

Bakersfield Bubble said...

Crisp & Cole under investigation:

http://bakersfieldbubble.blogspot.com

(Ex) Train Wreck Watcher said...

@Sysiwig: "I think what we're seeing here is a bottom peak in the market and it should recover in 6 months. In fact, I would say that as someone who is quite knowledgeable about the SoCal RE market, those people who invest in the firesales going on right now will reap huge dividends in 2+ years."

"And those of you 'renters' who have been waiting for those good deals, they are here now."

I have been waiting, and no, they aren't here now. A few begrudging concessions from homebuilders, and a lot of wishful thinking from home sellers, perhaps, but no good deals, not outside of the foreclosure market.

As Rob is finding out, housing takes a LONG time to adjust. People waiting for the housing panic have been waiting in vain--this is not a hurricane, it's erosion, that steadily but inevitably changes the landscape. Only in markets with high numbers of foreclosures and/or new homes will numbers really start to move fast (future tense--it's only just begun.) In other markets, home owners will hang on in quiet desperation as the homes linger on the market for months without being sold.

Calling the bottom isn't as difficult as many people think: just watch the inventory numbers. As long as the inventory numbers are above average, prices will go down, they have to, it's basic supply and demand. And the inventory numbers right now are FAR above the average (approaching a record perhaps?), at nine months--that's the AVERAGE, that means that the average person, in the average neighborhood, not in the bubble-icious areas, will be waiting months to sell their home. The only way prices will stop dropping is if the supply is soaked up, and the only way the supply will get soaked up is by new construction cutting WAY back (which they are only just starting to do)--and by home prices dropping further.

P.S. KBH is up--itsallgood(tm)!

Rob Dawg said...

the prices of houses in CA, especially where I live, are artifically too high, and will come down, because A. nobody can afford them, and B. they're just not worth that much money.

I don't know if you've been living under a cave or whatnot, but listing prices are significantly lower than they were 1-2 years ago. Even if listing prices are the same on paper, the real selling price during negotiation is actually a lot less.

Sellers are in a panic mode right now and want to dump the house they can't afford. But as with most situations--nothing lasts forever. I RE investor of mine (from Canada) saw a market go from a buyer's to a seller's one within 6 months.


Panic hasn't even begun. Listing prices are not appreciably lower although the quality of of product that is moving is higher albeit at formerly average prices. That is a case of lower prices but it is not reflected in asking prices. There's no way 5 years of massive runups will unwind in 18 months of pause.

Mouse And Pencil said...

@Rob

Sorry. I'll take off for a while, this little rat fucker is pushing all the wrong buttons today.

@Sysiwig

Blow me.

I'm gone.

Tavington said...

Rob Dawg:

I perfectly understand the aversion to the word 'sheeple'. If that word ever makes the Oxford dictionary, I think it would be appropriate to put Casey's picture there.

RE investors make money off of sheeple every day. These same traitors to humanity went around proclaiming that the 'bubble panickers' were Marxists trying to talk the economy into collapse.

So, I say kudos to the 'renters' and their 'anti-sheeple-ish' attitude when they held back and decided not to buy at the time. I don't hold a grudge against someone who doesn't want to buy a house at the price that I want to sell. More power to them.

So when I said "don't be a sheeple" I did direct it to the 'renters' (those waiting for the market to bottom out) as a warning to not buy into the hype that the market will collapse even further. The media is always 6 months behind what is actually going on.

I've met quite a few Realtors who were very shady and described 'renters' and 'housing bubble doom and gloomers' use codewords like freeloader. They consider anyone who is frugal in their house purchases to be parasites. They tell buyers constantly that that 2000 square feet is fine for a starter home and that they should eventually upgrade to a 6000 sq ft. McMansion.

I admit, I'm a capitalist at heart, I like to make money as much as the next guy. But I would never, ever sell a house to someone who can't afford it. Some realtors consider buying/selling 1200 sq. ft 50+ year old homes to be a waste of time, but if I can help out a regular guy with a regular job to get what he wants, that just makes my day. I've had shouting matches with my higher-ups because I didn't try "hard enough" to upsell extra square footage or foo-foo upgrades that the buyer didn't want.

I believe that the market has bottomed out (it may go down slightly more, but not by much) and will recover like it always has. Time will prove me right.

it takes a village to raise a blog said...

Twice a month Countrywide sends me junk mail touting how I can save a whopping $730 a year by exchanging my fixed rate mortgage for an ARM.

Seriously, someone in the marketing department needs to re-examine the parameters used for generating their junk mail.

Sysiwig said...

@ It takes a village:

There is nothing wrong with an ARM as long as you know how to leverage yourself properly.

Those who had an ARM that was lower than prime rate came out well ahead, along with the appreciation in their equity, were actually able to make extra purchases for consumer items.

ARMs aren't as bad as some people make them out to be.

Anonymous said...

"Sysiwig, "sheeple" is a very nasty word around here. to avoid troll accusations its best not to look like you are picking a fight."

God forbid.

eek said...

Ahh. Sysiwig = tavington

Trolling again..

(Ex) Train Wreck Watcher said...

@Tavington: "So when I said "don't be a sheeple" I did direct it to the 'renters' (those waiting for the market to bottom out) as a warning to not buy into the hype that the market will collapse even further. The media is always 6 months behind what is actually going on."

You're right, the media is often behind, by six months or a year or more, and they were late to the housing run-up, and they were similarly late to the downturn, and they'll be late again when it does finally settle down (it won't be picking up again in a LONG time, but I digress.)

The reaction you get is because the "renters", myself included, are sick and tired of being cajoled at the same time that we're being insulted and looked down on, and oh yes, being labeled, whether as "renters" or as "sheeple", for our unwillingness to open up our bank accounts so that greedy real estate agents, loan agents, banks, and investors can get their hands on our hard-earned money.

No, you can't have my money. No, I'm not buying any of your homes, or any of the homes sold by any of your cohorts, for that matter. IF and WHEN I do buy a home, it will likely be direct from a builder who is desperate to unload condominium units at any cost, and will cut the price and the closing costs to do so. I have no intention of paying a real estate agent a ridiculously high 6% commission for their part in getting me into a home I can't afford, I have no inention of allowing a lending agent to make instant money by arranging for a loan that's at a higher rate than what I qualify for, and I have no intention of bailing any hapless homeowner out of a house that they paid way too much for.

The real estate industry made this bed and now they can sleep in it, as for me, I'll be resting easy in my affordable rented room for the forseeable future.

lawnmower man said...

As an aside: it's amusing that Mocha is now trying to foist that The Secret twaddle on Casey.

Mocha: he already swallowed that whole. Check out the 12 Hour Foreclosure Fast.

Sysiwig said...

Just because certain markets in RE are experiencing a downturn, house prices are stable or actually rising (as in the case of Alberta, Canada).

Also, luxury homes are a very important niche in residential sales seems to be oblivious to the market slump. High-end luxury homes are selling well in many markets, and the owners expect their home values to continue to rise substantially, according to the finding of a survey recently completed by Coldwell who specialize in higher-end properties.

Property Flopper said...

Off topic, but today's Dilbert cartoon made me think of a certain person...

http://www.dilbert.com/comics/dilbert/archive/images/dilbert2007024440629.gif

OK - now back to the topic at hand:

Mouse 'n Pencil:
Illegitimi Non Carborundum - It's hard to ignore someone pushing your buttons, but just think... it's a bottom feeder real estate agent*. Give their opinions the value they deserve (none!) and laugh at them.

* Appologies to SacRealtor and other legitimate real estate types, sorry you get lumped in with the bottom feeders. Some of us know the difference and do separate y'all.

As to the nonsense about hitting bottom, we are nowhere near the bottom. Rob put it nicely with "the panic hasn't even started". Very true, watch the next two years to find out.

Those that have been on the gravy train do not want it to end. They'll pump and cheerlead, but reality (and the market) ignore this. It's a couple years to the bottom, then a couple more hovering there before any recovery starts. Good time to buy in will be in about four years (give or take) if you're looking to live in it, longer if you're looking for an investment.

Your milage may vary - different regions will react on different timelines, but the CA market (which they were pumping) is looking bleak for the next 5+ years. After that, too many variables to call.

Anonymous said...

A concern - Casey's "success" with his blog is based mostly around the fact that he's so irritating to everyone (world's most hated blogger, etc). He needs the "haterz" talking about him to continue to squeeze any money (however small) out of his blog

Casey realized this - most of his posts these days are just deliberate and transparent attempts to upset his critics. Is constantly writing about him (exactly what he wants), a good way to deal with this? I've noticed this blog has shifted from almost exclusively Casey-centric posts to broader topics about real estate - I think this is great and should be encouraged further.

I understand the need to coordinate information about Casey, particularly if an individual is gathering information to feed to law enforcement. But if so, a public forum is hardly the place to do it - tipping off Casey that somethign is afoot would defeat the purpose.

Rant over!

Sysiwig said...

@ Anonymous:

I agree with what you said. Although I discovered this blog because of Casey, and the story is interesting, this blog should limit the number of Casey threads.

Even though the real estate market has entered a into a correction cycle (I believe it has bottomed out for now, actually, but I digress) there's no need to sit on the sidelines, waiting for the market to rebound. There's still money in flipping houses, even during an economic downturn.

Anonymous said...

"I will be flying straight back to the States any day now. As soon as my other supporter is able to book the flight."

We should start a pool* as to where he will be staying upon his triumphant return.



* pool will not contain algae or koi (fish)

Rob Dawg said...

Anonymous:
I've noticed this blog has shifted from almost exclusively Casey-centric posts to broader topics about real estate - I think this is great and should be encouraged further.

this blog has returned from almost exclusively Casey-centric posts to broader topics about real estate...

The Short EN Formula:
Housing+Planning+Transportation+Economics(thereof)=Exurbia

Ex ENer returns home said...

FINALLY Rob Dawg is back at the helm:

"this blog has returned from almost exclusively Casey-centric posts to broader topics about real estate...

The Short EN Formula:
Housing+Planning+Transportation+Economics(thereof)=Exurbia"

(Phew)

Anonymous said...

when cost of new construction is equal to or less than existing homes, then underwater owners = blood in the streets. IMHO less than two years away.

Anonymous said...

Sysiwig=Tavinton=moron troll

Scummy said...

The Big Dawg Said......

"It's that longer than anticipated part that I still don't get. This was all supposed to unravel last October. It bothers me to be so very wrong on the timescale. Don't get me wrong, it isn't the being wrong, that' happens to everyone. No, I'm upset because I'm not learning anything this time from being wrong. So far the only answers are just too tinfoil to accept. Nigel says jobs but Big Picture and Calculated Risk have long put that canard to rest. I'm still looking for a nonparanoid answer."

I am a very simple man. The answer you seek may lie here...

http://www.billcara.com/

Still short DSL and still waiting for $100/sq ft here in vegas.

Scummy said...

Remember, Bush hired Goldman Sacks to run our economy.

They did what they could until what they could do didn't work anymore.

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