Wednesday, June 27, 2007

The Slinky Effect

When you pull one end of the coil it takes a bit but the rest follows in waves. The upswing saw this when high end housing leapt upward and everything else soon followed. Now we see the other end of the coil driving events. Brad Inman does a better job at this than I can. He says:
The math is simple: the risky loans both created and masked the problem of home price inflation, creating a temporary, cheap and artificial entry for first time buyers to get into the market.

With the disappearance of the entry level buyer the slinky has been yanked down. Hard.

39 comments:

Northern Renter said...

First. Murst. Bite me Bwahhahha.

Is that better, Dude?

NR

Sprezzatura said...

ARGH! So close!

Long Duck Dong said...

No yanky my slinky!

ha38349 said...

One way to interpret the RE numbers is that it is the lower half of the market that is hurting. This would explain the rising inventories along with the small fall in median prices. But gradually the slinky is going to pull the rest of the market down.

Anonymous said...

3 posts in an hour (counting mine).

boring.

hoaxBlogger said...

No casey news = snooze

The Dude said...

Northern,

Yep, that's much better....bitchslap everybody! But, Canadian beer still sucks, hockey has turned into a sissy sport, and we won't forgive ya for sticking us with North Dakota.

Northern Rental said...

Dude,
Jeez, don't go all Casey on me! Show that you haven't lost all touch with reality and admit that Canadian beer is superior to the wet air that passes for beer down in the Excited States (I was a Californian for nearly 5 years). As the old joke goes, American beer is like making love in a canoe. It's f***ing close to water. As for North Dakota... no comment.

NR

The Dude said...

Wealthy builder ordered to pay MORE

Divorced in '78 after she got caught screwing around. Settlement in '81 buying her a house and investments. He raised their 3 kids. Then, she fell on "hard times" so court ordered him to bail her out.

Demantoid said...

Anyone know what became of my least favorite Salt Lake mortgage broker?

Would it be too much to hope that he will not be a regular here?

The Dude said...

Northern,

Case Closed

Rob Dawg said...

Nigel is trying very hard to undo the image that was crafted for him on the net. I'm willing to take a hands off attitude to see how that works. I had the opportunity to ruin several of his ventures but decided to not get involved.

peet said...

Nigel has a new post (well as of yesterday).

peet said...

I think he means a Casey-related post.

fackENers said...

RE: Nigel.

Yeah he has been pretty quiet lately. But for a while there he had a large flurry of postings.

Demantoid said...

That's mighty white of you Rob Dawg,
you had a lot of uncalled for crap tossed your way and I must say I admire the way you handled it.

You have class.


Nigel has koi.

lawnmower man said...

I suspect Nigel has run out of Casey juice: he's revealed most of the old secrets, and Casey's not talking to him any more so there's no new information.

His last comment on DHC suggested he was going to address the Utah wrap. If nothing else, he should be able to tell us its current MLS status.

Maybe, like most of us, he's biding his time waiting for the next big-popcorn blockbuster to hit EN?

Kitty said...

Okay, so I know this isn't a Casey-related thread, but from the comments at IAFF:

---------------------
41. Casey Serin
June 27th, 2007 at 4:44 pm


Ok i only have a quick moment to respond to comments. Internet time is costing me $2/hr (AU) so can’t waste any money.

Speaking of money. I have only spend $200-300 on the ENTIRE trip so far. I’ve been here for like 3 weeks now? So $100/week aint bad heh? The publicity and the juiciness factor of being in a diff country and still saving money to pay off debt is the underlining benefit that is coming from all this.

So stop hatin’ on my travel coverage. NO, i DON’T plan on making this into some travel blog. Just the stuff that pertains to me foreclosure and comeback story. I may start another blog in the future if I end up doing this “global arbitrage living” thing for a longer period of time. I understand I gotta keep this thing focused.

Also, I know the Australian market is not my target market per se. But again, any exposure is good because once leveraged properly will help me be more effective. Extra traffic allows me to attract more advertisers which helps me surive long enough without a W2 job so I can have the time for high-leverage things like releaseing the book next month and other exciting things that will help me pay off my debt, etc.. So it’s all good in the end.

Ok, since this guy (or girl) has been persistent here are some answers:

“Come on Casey, Answer the Questions! We want to know!”

1. What interest rate is your corp charging you?
2. What is your payment plan?

I’m not doing anything else with the corp at this moment. That whole plan has been put on hold because of some set backs. I do have some debt inside the corp but I plan on paying that back on time like I have been so far.

3. Have you or anyone else started paying the corp back?

I have made all my payments on the corp debt and its current. That goes to show you that I’m not using the corp just to borrow money and not pay back.

However, i’m gonna look into putting this blog into the corp somehow so that I can have income and expenses. Which makes for a much better pictures. I just haven’t had the time to take care of this. It’s another detail thing. I need a detail person to help me out or something’

4. What interest rate is the corp paying to its creditors?

Zero percent on one card for a year and like 15% on another I think. More details.

5. Aside from the initial loan of $4,500 or whatever, has the corp begun paying back any of its creditors?

It’s paying all of them.

6. Has your guarantor (ahem) made any payments on the corp’s behalf?

No, it’s my responsability and i’m handling it.

7. Why specifically did you have to leave your Aussie hosts?

Complications. But it’s not as bad as it sounds.

8. Where are you staying now?

Well I have been in Brisbane area the whole time, except for a weekend drive to Sydney like a week go. I stay in Sydney with my host who had some business to take care of. So that was all free to me.

Now I’m back in Sydney. I flew from Brisbane to Newcastle to meet with a supporter and another supporter put me up for the night. Then the first supporter drove me here to Sydney and I spend the night in a hostel last night. I got my own room so it wasn’t so bad.

Now i’m planning my next move. I need to stick around here for a few days and get some interviews done. After that I’m not sure.

8.5 Who has been taking the photos of you in Australia?

My Brisbane host. NO, i don’t have a tripod and I don’t have a professional crew following me around. Hehehe. But i will take that as a compliment at my amature photo skilz.

9. Where are you getting the money to live in Australia?

Most of it has been covered by my Brisbane host. (Big thanks to you buddy! Thanks for all the support too.) I’ve only spend like $200-300 the entire time i’ve been here. That money came from advertising.

10. Did you “check into” Cashcall’s threat of a lawsuit?

Not yet. Since i’ve been traveling last couple of days I didn’t have a chance to sit down and call my lenders. Plus i have had limited internet connectivity and my Skype headset is no more. I was actually borrowing it from my Brisbane host. But I did buy my own yesterday so as soon as I get situated with free internet somewhere and a quiet place I can call CashCall and see what those guys want.

11. How are your taxes coming? Is anyone working on them?
12. Have you been making quarterly tax payments?

No. That’ has been a thorn in my side. Another detail. I better get that done before the deadline though. (Crap that’s a lot of busy work I’m gonna have to do)

13. Now that you’ve admitted to buying GSPG, why are you still holding it? Why not cut your losses and liquidate?

‘Cuz it’s gonna go through the freakin’ roof one of these days. Well the most likely scenario is its a hold term play and as he dollar keeps going down and gold goes up this thing should play out in the next year or two.

Either that or my gold “guru” has been blowing smoke. Wil will see

14. Are you planning to return to your rented rooms? When?

Not sure when and hopefully I will be welcomed back. That i’m not sure about either. My trip here is coming to an end though. So we’ll find out soon enough.

15. Do you have money for the rent?

Yes.

16. Do you have money for the ticket back?

Yes. But I do have an offer from a supporter to pay for it.

17. Whose idea was it to register iamfacingdivorce.com?

Not mine.

18. Still working with Marty on the book? Have you signed any more people up for NRU? Sold any casinos?

The book should be out next month (I hope).

No more NRU sales. I’ve been gone and haven’t spent much time prospecting. I should though. That’s an $8,000 commission waiting for me for selling something really good that I believe in. It’s a win-win.

Maybe I can take advantage of global arbitrage and hire somebody from India to make my sales calls for $4/hour. Hmmm… not a bad plan now that i think bout it.

19. What fund offers 5% per month?

A very sweet one. That’s the lowest I will look at when considering private equity funds. It gets even better. Need to have good connectionz though!

20. Utah wrap?

Still wrapped as far as I know. Maybe somebody with Wasatch county MLS access can check and tell me how the sale is going for my “wrapees”

21. Is Marty now writing your posts? BULLET POINTS BABY!

Nobody is writing my posts but me. I did speculate about hiring somebody to write for me. I don’t think i will do that. But if I do, don’t worry you will know about it.

….

How’s that?

Dolph said...

I wish he'd stop lying about paying his debts. He's not paying shit back.

Casey...I call B.S.

Anonymous said...

"19. What fund offers 5% per month?

A very sweet one. That’s the lowest I will look at when considering private equity funds. It gets even better. Need to have good connectionz though!"

I'm going to repost that again and again when Casey does beg-a-thon II.

Property Flopper said...

> 11. How are your taxes coming?
> Is anyone working on them?
>
> No. That’ has been a thorn in my side.
> Another detail. I better get that
> done before the deadline though.

Hate to tell him, but the deadline was 16 April. He had to file the extension by that time and had to include both an estimate for owed tax and payment of that estimate.

He didn't...

With all that "sweet cashback" last year, he's added tax evasion to his mortgage fraud.

Not sure if the IRS had been looking at him before, but I know there is at least one investigator looking at him now.

The IRS does not take kindly to this kind of thing... :)

lawnmower man said...

this “global arbitrage living” thing

Ah, this "running away from home and mooching off strangers" thing.

Despite all the guarded replies, this is the most transparent he's been in weeks.

"Not sure" when he's going home? "Not sure" whether he'll be welcome? Reality may be sinking in.

New Englander said...

Wow. The image of a slinky just brought a flood of lovely memories, none of them connected to the topic unfortunately. Wow. My grandfather used to put it on the top of the stairs to coax us down to dinner. We had never been to a two story house and were afraid of the steep stairs. Funny how seeing a toy can bring it all back. Thanks for that.

Rob Dawg said...

Casey has devolved to blatant lying. I have only spend $200-300 on the ENTIRE trip so far. Come on, that ain't snack eatin' money.

All this crap about supporters buying him $1200 tickets just to be nice. What a lying sh!thead.

eek said...

From KC's post it seems that he has a few Supporterz(future victims) in Oz. I wonder how long before he runs out of Supporterz down there. I vote by mid July.

He mentions a gold guru got him into GSPG...LOL. Always getting conned by gurus, he's hopeless.

Kitty said...

LMM, based on Casey's history, I doubt that reality is sinking in at all. Sadly, these glimmers of good sense will be rapidly obscured by a miasma of poor judgment.

lawnmower man said...

@kitty: Oh, of course, of course. I referred only to the reality of his damaged relationship with Galina. He may now be realizing that he *can't* go home again.

I suspect, though, that he sees no fault on his side -- he didn't desert her, he went away to focus on SWEET INCOME GENERATION.

More likely that he sees her as a betrayer for having talked to the haterz.

Mouse And Pencil said...

@Flopper

At what point does it become tax evasion, ie. what does it take for the IRS to come after you for that? I'm just curious - I know people that filed years late, and just got fines and interest, would'nt evasion require trying to hide money, or lying about income? Is filing late considered evasion?

He scoffed a while back that the IRS just levies a fine, and interest, and scoffed at the IRS coming after him...is he right? I know the rules for self-employment are very complicated, so I have no idea.

And...did'nt he say that he had a cpa working on his taxes? Another lie? Say it ain't so!

About all I know about taxes is running TurboTax and signing a check when i need to.

Kitty said...

@LMM: Reality as filtered through his personal myth - I concur. It's truly fascinating to watch how reality sifts down into Caseyworld.

HARM said...

do you really think that Americans are going to accept a regime in which they're randomly stopped in the street and, if they're wearing the wrong slacks or forgot their wallet, summarily evicted from their country?

Is these really my only choice? Getting randomly accosted in the street by jackbooted MIGRA-Nazis or ZERO law enforcement? How about simply requiring employers to perform simple identity & legal residence verification checks (like some already do)? Ditto for social services, state, federal and county jails/courts, etc.

Doesn't sound too Draconian to me.

HARM said...

-these
+this

christiangustafson said...

万 々 歳!
JAPANESE THE ONLY DIVINE PEOPLES OF EAST ASIA. WE NEVER STOP GOING TO THE YASUKUNI JINJA. NEVER! CHINA STOPS MEDDLING IN INTERNAL JAPANESE BUSINESS!
八 紘 一 宇 !

lawnmower man said...

HARM, you're on the wrong thread. Immigration policy is this-a-way.

BelowTheCrowd said...

M&P,

You can get a simple extension just by asking for one. That's good for six months.

So long as you file the extension paperwork, they can't get you for anything other than penalties and interest. To avoid these you can send in an estimated amount due with your extension request, but you don't have to. It'll only cost you money if you don't, not criminal prosecution.

Beyond the six months you can get additional extensions in extreme situations. Those are not granted automatically as the initial six months always is. You have to have a really good reason. "I'm not a details guy" or "Somebody gave me a free ticket to Australia" won't cut it.

Realistically even if you don't file for the extensions, the IRS is unlikely to make much of a case out of it so long as you get to them before they get to you. This usually gives you a couple of years to settle up before things get really bad.

There are exceptions to this. If the IRS decides that you were intentionally evading taxes on a significant amount (not just being an idiot), or if you are high enough profile for them to want to make an example of you. Casey definitely fits into that second category and may very well fit into the first as well. His talk about how he has no time for such things while he's playing with marsupials, and use of terms like "busy work" to describe tax filings is not going to endear him to the IRS.

Incidentally, Galina should go ahead and file for herself as "married filing seperately." That way at least she's in the clear. She probably had no 2006 income, so shouldn't be a problem for her.

-btc

Demantoid said...

Well, well, well,

My least favorite mortgage broker reveals himself as nothing more than an immoral equity stripper.

Per Nigel's latest post:

"My interest was this: for a few thousand dollars and legal fees to foreclose, I could have $100-$150k in equity for a property. Casey doesn't see this. He still doesn't, otherwise he would foreclose."


I suspect another reason Nigel had his lips firmly attached to some unsavory part of Casey's anatomy, is because mr. ethical has written nothing but toxic loans himself, since that is how he makes the most money.

Demantoid said...

@btc:

A small error on your part, this is a community property state. Since they lived together during 2006, half her income is Casey's and half Casey's income is hers.

H Simpson said...

Speaking of slinkys..

Q: What do Slinkys and Fliptard have in common?

A: Both are useless but a lot of fun to push down a flight of stairs... :>)

Anonymous said...

73. Casey Serin
June 28th, 2007 at 12:16 am

If you missed it… Robbie Buck said on air that he has never had people send him emails warning him about a radio guest like the haterz did with me.

So this is for my “haterz” or should I say unware supporters?

Why do you keep trying to sabotage my every opportunity to get exposure and make money to pay back my debt??

Oh I know, you want to stop “a criminal from profiting from his crime”. That’s what I’ve heard some of you say. What a bunch of crap. This is the best way for me to make money right now. You’re taking away my best opportunity to avoid bankrutpcy. How does that make it right?

The funny thing is… with your attempt at sabotage you’re actually helping my story be more interesting and keeping the World’s Most Hated Blogger label going. Thanks for your help.

You can try to throw sticks into my wheels (is that how they say it) but I will keep ridin’. You may win a few battles there and here but the outcome of the war has already been determined.

And who says anything about a war? I should thank you again for being such devoted haterz. My comeback story would not be possible without you. So we must be on the same team then.

Sweeeeet!

Property Flopper said...

Mouse -

Not sure of the specifics, but I did spend time chatting with an IRS investigator on my vacation. They won't go after a late file for something small, but they will go after someone blatant.

Pretty clear Snowflake has no intention of paying. He is being looked at.