Tuesday, June 05, 2007

Countrywide Countrywide

My good friend Angelo has his offices just up the hill. Nice guy, great tan. Unfortunately while he's been collecting options in dollars his company has been collecting houses instead of the expected mortgage payments. Lots of houses. Lots and lots of houses. Everywhere. The beauty of CFCs REO list is that you can just see where the bubble was biggest. Choose California and run down the list. CFC is now the greater fool by default. You also have to wonder, for every first loan that ends up in their REO portfolio how many times was CFC the second lienholder and lost their entire stake? I'm thinking also for every REO there has to be a dozen loans in trouble.


Anonymous said...


Mr Second said...

That radioactive car is like a neutron bomb. It will empty out all the houses in the neighborhood.

baa said...

i can only speak for some of the homes where i have direct knowledge of the area, but imho, countrywide is looking for too much money still.

makes me shudder to think what the sales price was.

R-Boy said...

Is there a list for this? It would be cool to see totals by area.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

Mozilo CFC Stock Dumping--Q2 07


From: vmor...@gmail.com -
Date: Tues, Apr 3 2007 4:17 pm

Just ran a quick spreadsheet on Mozilo's Q1 stock trading, and he let
go of 1,625,000 shares at an average price of 39.78 for a grand total
of $64,643,010.00. Of course most of these are options, most of which
seem to have an exercise price of around $9.60, dragging down Mozilo's take-home earning to only $49 million (though is is assuming all were options all at approx. 9.60 exercise price--I did not both going through every Mozillo form 4).

Q2 is but three days old but Mozilo already unloaded an additional
46,000 shares on 4/2. At this rate he should have no trouble matching
his torrid Q1 pace--for shares at least. That $50 million take home
number might prove even harder to break this time around should CFC
continue its downward trend. Here's hoping.

cNc said...

Comment by JP
2007-06-05 06:47:20

Nice plots of Case Shiller for several cities:


The plots speak for themselves. I don’t think this is the first inning anymore.

Rob Dawg said...

The C-S futures prices are certainly pessimistic. There's something wrong with the composite index however seeing as 9 of the 10 regions show declines far in excess of the composite decline.

The interesting thing is watching people finally grasping that this isn't going to be a slow decline. It can't be a slow decline. No matter how much the "experts" keep accelerating their predictions events continue even faster.

H Simpson said...

Wow Rob Dawg. A photo from Repo Man (great flick, I own a copy).

So is young Casey the goofy tow truck driver who flies off in the glowing 65 Chevy malibu never to be seen again?

After driving 50 miles to my sailboat last week, I truely believe there is a real profit to be made making HOUSE FOR SALE signs.
As many as I saw along the way, the relators have to be running out of them..

I think we did not learn 18 years ago. What a shame..

lurker said...

Slow is relative. We peaked in 2005 so housing has been declining for 2 years. I imagine 2005 was like the top of a roller coaster. 2006 we were barely moving. 2007 is the time to put your hands in the air. 2008 we are moving real fast but starting to level out. 2009 we will bottom out and 2010 we will start the slow chug up

Anonymous said...

Countrywide holds a second note on our house (we did 80/10/10 4 years ago). We're on track to pay that off in the next year (sooner if business keeps growing the way it has been).

Last week I got an offer to refinance that note and cash out equity "based on our good repayment record with Countrywide." There's no way I'm pulling equity out of the house. We're debt free (except for the mortgage) and I'm still worried about the economy and how much it's going to hurt us.

I am of two minds with the sub-prime meltdown. I think a lot of it is banks taking advantage of people and their ignorance. But I also think that some percentage of the people being foreclosed on were greedy and stupid. There's a lot of blame to go around.

Akubi said...

H Simpson,
Are you referring to Otto? As I recall, he stole cars legally.
Casey definitely wouldn't be Miller, my favorite character. "The more you drive, the less intelligent you are."

Peripheral Visionary said...

CFC is in serious trouble, as is IndyMac, whose "solution" to problems in its portfolio has been to hang on to all of its bad loans. Japanese banking system, here we come. Investors better get used to the phrase "non-performing loans", because they're going to hear it a lot more. I'm just amazed that LEND dodged the bullet--just goes to show that the "greater fool" theory applies to corporations as much as to individuals.

Rob Dawg said...

"Serious trouble" is a bit harsh. IndyMac is in worse shape but both are "too big to fail" if only because they are dominoes that will cause a cascade failure of unimaginable proportions.

CFCs problem isn't in its' retained loans. Sure they are rotten but they are insured/reserved/costed. The problem will be with any potential crambacks. ECR being the prototype. IMO CFC has the political juice to not get shot.

haysoos said...

1. look up address on CFC list
2. find on redfin


we are soooo screwwwwwed, 50%+ crash is in the bag.